Joey Estes

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	31	30	156	5.19	4.78	17.7%	5.4%	0.2	K 17.1% · BB 5.2% · FIP 5.03
2025	23	MIX2 levels	20	17	91	6.03	5.35	18.5%	6.6%	-0.5	K 16.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 5.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	22	21	99	6.84	6.26	16.3%	10.8%	-1.5	K 14.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	12	12	71	5.20	5.52	15.7%	7.5%	-0.5
2028PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBOAK	11	11	65	5.31	5.39	17.2%	7.5%	-0.4
2029PROJ78% MLB	27	MLBOAK	13	13	77	5.38	5.43	17.2%	7.6%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJason Grilli (age 24) · Hiram Burgos (age 25) · Cha Seung Baek (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.20

FIP5.52

K%15.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL6565

CMD5055

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p1010.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

CH (10%)

SI (8%)

FB-3.5 (60%)

SL-3.7 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.56	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.60	—
2021	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	1.9%	2.91	3.25	—
2021	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	32.1%	7.3%	24.7%	1.8%	2.91	2.33	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	5.8%	4.55	5.88	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	4.4%	4.55	4.50	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	5.0%	3.98	5.24	-0.6
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	4.5%	3.98	4.60	+0.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.1%	5.2%	11.9%	4.9%	5.19	5.03	-0.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.1%	5.2%	11.9%	4.9%	5.19	5.03	-0.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	4.5%	5.19	4.78	+0.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	16.1%	6.1%	10.1%	5.1%	6.03	5.28	-0.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	16.1%	6.1%	10.1%	5.1%	6.03	5.28	-0.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	18.5%	6.6%	11.9%	5.3%	6.03	5.35	-0.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	14.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.4%	6.84	6.14	-1.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	14.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.4%	6.84	6.14	-1.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	16.3%	10.8%	5.4%	5.4%	6.84	6.26	-1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	29	156	679	110	35	35	91%	4.9	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	5.2%	5.77	5.28	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	12	12	71	300	47	23	13	100%	5.9	15.7%	7.5%	8.2%	4.4%	5.20	5.52	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	96	404	69	30	18	100%	6.0	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	4.4%	5.31	5.39	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	98	415	71	31	18	100%	6.2	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	4.4%	5.38	5.43	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	98	415	71	32	19	100%	6.2	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	4.5%	5.46	5.51	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	94	397	65	32	19	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.0%	8.5%	4.7%	5.59	5.67	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	88	373	59	31	18	100%	5.9	15.8%	8.2%	7.5%	4.9%	5.76	5.88	-1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	65	274	47	21	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	4.4%	5.31	5.39	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	77	325	56	25	14	100%	5.9	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	4.4%	5.38	5.43	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	60	27	16	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	4.5%	5.46	5.51	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	83	350	58	28	16	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.0%	8.5%	4.7%	5.59	5.67	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	53	28	17	100%	6.2	15.8%	8.2%	7.5%	4.9%	5.76	5.88	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	93	543	2312	383	163	110	97%	5.7	16.5%	7.0%	9.5%	4.8%	5.58	5.21	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	852	141	60	41	97%	5.6	16.5%	7.0%	9.5%	4.8%	5.58	5.21	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		147	138	693	2955	530	228	138	94%	4.7	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.7%	4.91	5.12	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	853	153	66	40	94%	4.7	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.7%	4.91	5.12	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Estes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	15.7%	7.5%	4.4%	—	5.44	17.1%	9.5%	293	-0.08	—	—	—
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	75
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	74
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	71
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	71
Kyle Gibson R 2013 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.2%	8.4%	2.9%	.341	3.93	16.0%	8.4%	521	-0.81	3.56	1,920	71
Mike MacDougal R 2001 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	10.4%	6.0%	3.0%	.296	3.79	20.5%	8.7%	75	-0.82	2.68	379	70
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	69
Nelson Figueroa R 2000 · 6.39 FIP	26	SP	6.39	10.3%	7.4%	5.9%	.250	4.88	14.2%	6.2%	217	-1.51	3.71	499	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	68
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	68
Aaron Harang R 2003 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP	4.60	12.8%	5.8%	3.4%	.306	3.76	19.5%	14.0%	607	-0.84	3.42	2,322	68
Jason Standridge R 2003 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	12.7%	10.2%	4.5%	.272	4.14	15.3%	5.8%	52	-1.62	3.86	107	68
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	68
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	68
Chris Young R 2004 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	17.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.254	3.78	21.9%	13.5%	517	-1.11	3.17	1,298	68
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	67
Matt Magill R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP	4.98	16.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.435	4.86	18.6%	8.4%	195	-0.12	3.40	287	67
Denny Stark R 2001 · 6.39 FIP	26	SP-	6.39	17.6%	5.9%	7.3%	.340	5.86	9.9%	-0.0%	233	-0.53	5.28	259	67
Daniel McCutchen R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	12.3%	5.8%	3.9%	.264	4.81	12.5%	4.3%	152	-0.12	4.13	476	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	16.5%	7.2%	1.82	5.53
Jose Acevedo ('05)	1.8	74	15.5%	6.9%	1.73	5.74
Darrell May ('05)	3.3	132	14.3%	7.3%	1.68	5.16
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Bill Faul ('62-'70, -1 WAR*)	1.3	87	18.8%*	9.1%*	1.82*	5.41*
Sergio Valdez ('86-'95, -2 WAR*)	1.5	61	18.1%*	8.0%*	1.79*	5.46*
Lynn Nelson ('30-'40, -0 WAR*)	3.4	135	18.9%*	7.9%*	1.90*	4.87*