JJ Goss

P Midland RockHounds

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	AATB	33	0	40	3.38	2.77	19.4%	7.5%	—	K 15.7% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.27
2026	25	AAOAK	33	2	52	5.23	4.42	15.6%	10.8%	—	K 12.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	67	0	70	5.26	5.26	13.1%	11.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBOAK	25	0	26	5.19	5.20	14.1%	10.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBOAK	38	0	40	5.18	5.22	14.7%	10.9%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Brad Allen (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%13.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	9	8	17	71	16	2	1	89%	1.9	15.3%	3.5%	11.8%	2.0%	5.82	3.33	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	9	8	17	71	16	2	1	89%	1.9	22.5%	2.8%	19.7%	1.4%	5.82	2.34	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	4	3	10	44	12	0	0	75%	2.6	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	6.10	0.80	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	4	3	10	44	12	0	0	75%	2.6	27.3%	0.0%	27.3%	0.0%	6.10	0.78	—
2022	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	25	101	406	101	21	7	100%	4.1	18.4%	6.1%	12.3%	2.4%	4.00	3.62	—
2022	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	25	101	406	101	21	7	100%	4.1	24.9%	5.2%	19.7%	1.7%	4.00	2.63	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	95	408	90	49	16	100%	4.3	17.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.6%	5.21	5.94	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	22	95	408	90	49	16	100%	4.3	22.1%	12.0%	10.0%	3.9%	5.21	4.94	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	0.0%	2.35	2.73	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	22.0%	11.7%	10.3%	0.0%	2.35	2.73	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	0	23	98	28	10	0	0%	1.4	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	0.0%	2.35	1.97	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	15.7%	8.2%	7.4%	0.8%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	15.7%	8.2%	7.4%	0.8%	3.38	3.27	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	33	0	40	160	31	12	1	0%	1.2	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	0.6%	3.38	2.77	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.6%	5.23	4.97	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	12.6%	11.9%	0.7%	2.6%	5.23	4.97	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	33	2	52	231	36	25	5	6%	1.6	15.6%	10.8%	4.8%	2.2%	5.23	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	67	0	70	296	39	33	8	0%	1.0	13.1%	11.0%	2.1%	2.7%	5.26	5.26	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	69	291	41	32	8	0%	1.0	14.1%	10.9%	3.2%	2.8%	5.19	5.20	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	64	0	67	282	42	31	8	0%	1.0	14.7%	10.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.18	5.22	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	61	0	64	270	40	30	8	0%	1.0	14.9%	11.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.24	5.31	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	25	0	26	110	16	12	3	0%	1.0	14.1%	10.9%	3.2%	2.8%	5.19	5.20	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	25	18	5	0%	1.1	14.7%	10.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.18	5.22	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	43	0	45	190	28	21	6	0%	1.0	14.9%	11.1%	3.9%	3.1%	5.24	5.31	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	69	51	14	0%	1.0	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	3.0%	5.21	4.87	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	124	92	25	0%	1.1	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	3.0%	5.21	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		143	60	338	1418	243	136	37	42%	2.4	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.30	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	35	200	838	143	80	22	42%	2.4	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.50	4.30	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JJ Goss (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	13.1%	11.0%	2.7%	—	5.24	14.6%	3.6%	200	-0.02	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	87
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	86
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	78
Matt Roney R 2003 · 5.54 FIP	23	SW	5.54	10.5%	9.8%	3.8%	.249	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	101	78
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	77
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	77
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	77
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	76
Edison Frias R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	26	SU	4.14	13.0%	9.8%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	279	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	14.2%	11.0%	1.11	5.22
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*