Gustavo Rodriguez

Gustavo Rodriguez P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%21.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	8	1	12	54	4	8	0	12%	1.5	5.0%	18.5%	-13.5%	0.0%	2.25	5.02	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	8	1	12	54	4	8	0	12%	1.5	7.4%	14.8%	-7.4%	0.0%	2.25	4.43	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	57	234	53	11	1	100%	4.8	15.4%	5.9%	9.5%	0.6%	2.04	2.87	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	57	234	53	11	1	100%	4.8	22.6%	4.7%	17.9%	0.4%	2.04	2.05	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	48	233	52	30	4	52%	2.3	15.6%	16.3%	-0.8%	2.2%	7.26	5.04	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	48	233	52	30	4	52%	2.3	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	1.7%	7.26	3.89	—
2022	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	27	1	58	233	66	25	4	4%	2.1	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	2.5%	2.65	4.32	—
2022	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	27	1	58	233	66	25	4	4%	2.1	28.3%	10.7%	17.6%	1.7%	2.65	3.01	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	70	314	75	37	7	0%	1.8	17.9%	14.1%	3.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	70	314	75	37	7	0%	1.8	17.9%	14.1%	3.8%	2.7%	4.86	4.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	70	314	75	37	7	0%	1.8	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	2.2%	4.86	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	33	153	35	14	1	0%	1.5	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	0.0%	4.32	2.89	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	33	153	35	14	1	0%	1.5	18.4%	10.6%	7.8%	0.0%	4.32	2.89	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	33	153	35	14	1	0%	1.5	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	0.7%	4.32	2.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	44	183	52	23	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	1.64	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	44	183	52	23	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	1.4%	1.64	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	44	183	52	23	2	0%	1.1	28.4%	12.6%	15.8%	1.1%	1.64	2.90	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	19	1	25	104	25	10	0	5%	1.3	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	0.0%	2.55	2.81	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	19	1	25	104	25	10	0	5%	1.3	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	0.0%	2.55	2.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	OAK	4	1	6	22	7	1	0	25%	1.4	31.8%	4.5%	27.3%	0.0%	1.59	0.99	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	OAK	15	0	19	82	18	9	0	0%	1.3	22.0%	11.0%	11.0%	0.0%	2.84	2.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	38	0	40	167	36	20	4	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	18	0	19	80	17	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	18	10	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.23	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	105	21	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		188	26	348	1508	267	187	23	14%	1.8	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	1.5%	3.65	4.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	15	200	867	154	108	13	14%	1.8	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	1.5%	3.65	4.02	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gustavo Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	21.3%	12.5%	2.6%	—	4.61	21.7%	9.6%	40	-0.05	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	82
Guido Knudson R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	25	SU	3.50	20.7%	11.1%	1.4%	.255	4.69	17.5%	6.7%	47	+1.19	3.50	106	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.6%	12.2%	1.00	4.63
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42