Avery Short

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+ARI	24	23	128	3.51	3.21	21.2%	6.8%	—	K 16.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.20
2025	24	MIX2 levels	22	22	103	4.73	4.75	16.8%	8.3%	—	K 13.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.62
2026	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	98	4.67	5.29	15.4%	7.8%	—	K 12.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.96
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	12	12	71	5.66	5.66	11.6%	9.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBARI	6	6	34	5.54	5.55	12.7%	9.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBARI	9	9	53	5.50	5.54	13.2%	9.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMiguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Edgar Osuna (age 29) · Michael O'Connor (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124133vR 141

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%11.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	1	7	28	7	0	0	17%	1.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	2.57	1.10	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	3.0%	7.38	4.65	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	15	14	57	279	60	23	6	93%	3.8	21.5%	8.2%	13.3%	2.2%	7.38	3.57	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	20.1%	11.4%	8.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	59	269	71	26	7	74%	3.1	26.4%	9.7%	16.7%	2.6%	4.73	3.56	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	5.9%	5.40	6.43	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	10	45	199	36	17	9	91%	4.1	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	4.5%	5.40	5.23	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	2.7%	3.51	4.20	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	24	23	128	528	112	36	10	96%	5.3	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	1.9%	3.51	3.21	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	13.9%	9.2%	4.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	103	447	75	37	16	100%	4.7	16.8%	8.3%	8.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.75	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.2%	4.67	5.96	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	12.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.2%	4.67	5.96	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	98	435	67	34	19	100%	4.1	15.4%	7.8%	7.6%	4.4%	4.67	5.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	12	12	71	300	35	28	11	100%	5.9	11.6%	9.4%	2.2%	3.6%	5.66	5.66	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	91	384	49	36	14	100%	6.1	12.7%	9.3%	3.3%	3.6%	5.54	5.55	-0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	88	373	49	35	14	100%	5.9	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.6%	5.50	5.54	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	356	48	34	13	100%	6.0	13.4%	9.5%	4.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.60	-0.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	79	334	51	30	13	100%	6.1	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.9%	5.49	5.48	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	34	144	18	13	5	100%	5.7	12.7%	9.3%	3.3%	3.6%	5.54	5.55	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	53	224	30	21	8	100%	5.9	13.2%	9.3%	3.9%	3.6%	5.50	5.54	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	34	24	10	100%	6.0	13.4%	9.5%	4.0%	3.8%	5.54	5.60	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	62	262	40	23	10	100%	6.2	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.9%	5.49	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	208	880	122	81	33	100%	6.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.6%	3.7%	5.52	5.16	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	117	78	32	100%	6.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.6%	3.7%	5.52	5.16	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		121	108	498	2185	336	196	79	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	878	135	79	32	89%	4.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.93	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Avery Short (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	11.6%	9.4%	3.6%	—	5.56	13.1%	3.7%	264	-0.10	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	91
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	82
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	80
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	79
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	76
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	76
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	75
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	11.5%	10.3%	3.1%	.324	4.61	11.8%	1.8%	91	-0.53	4.58	321	75
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	74
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	74
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	72
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	72
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	71
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	71
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	71
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	70
Ty Culbreth L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	25	SP	4.56	12.3%	7.2%	2.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	380	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	83	13.3%	9.3%	1.43	5.54
Rocky Biddle ('04)	1.9	76	15.3%	9.9%	1.40	5.47
Vito Valentinetti ('54-'59, -2 WAR*)	1.3	86	13.0%*	10.5%*	1.44*	5.26*
Doug Linton ('03)	1.5	51	14.9%	9.0%	1.47	5.78
Gary Knotts ('04)	1.3	89	13.5%	10.2%	1.38	5.45
Dave Otto ('87-'94, -1 WAR*)	1.6	80	13.4%*	8.5%*	1.17*	5.29*
Paul Calvert ('42-'51, -3 WAR*)	1.5	101	15.8%*	9.0%*	1.18*	5.60*