Andrew Wantz
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.66
K%25.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
SL (29%)
CT (23%)
SI (29%)
FB-1.5 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.5% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 4.4% | 2.74 | 4.96 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 47 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 47.5% | 15.2% | 32.3% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 2.10 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 96 | 435 | 112 | 43 | 16 | 75% | 4.0 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 5.34 | 5.16 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 96 | 435 | 112 | 43 | 16 | 75% | 4.0 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 4.28 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 58 | 236 | 68 | 16 | 7 | 15% | 1.7 | 27.3% | 6.9% | 20.4% | 3.3% | 3.28 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 58 | 236 | 68 | 16 | 7 | 15% | 1.7 | 28.8% | 6.8% | 22.0% | 3.0% | 3.28 | 3.15 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 66 | 264 | 69 | 24 | 11 | 2% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 16.2% | 4.4% | 3.14 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 1 | 66 | 264 | 69 | 24 | 11 | 2% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 3.14 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 3 | 65 | 271 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 6% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 3 | 65 | 271 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 6% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 25 | 113 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 75% | 3.1 | 28.0% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 5.3% | 6.20 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 25 | 113 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 75% | 3.1 | 32.7% | 14.2% | 18.6% | 4.4% | 6.20 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 0.69 | 2.60 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 0.69 | 2.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 43 | 5 | 70 | 333 | 68 | 38 | 5 | 12% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 1.4% | 6.72 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TB | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | TB | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | TB | — | — | 120 | 546 | 122 | 62 | 12 | — | — | 22.4% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 5.72 | 4.16 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | TB | — | — | 52 | 220 | 122 | 62 | 12 | — | — | 55.6% | 28.4% | 27.2% | 5.6% | 13.21 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 50 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.96 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 4 | 259 | 1088 | 272 | 117 | 40 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 3 | 200 | 840 | 210 | 90 | 31 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 239 | 38 | 415 | 1802 | 421 | 199 | 63 | 16% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 18 | 200 | 869 | 203 | 96 | 30 | 16% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Wantz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 25.4% | 11.4% | 3.4% | — | 5.02 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 93 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 79 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 72 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.90 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.17 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.73 | 2.33 | 445 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 72 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 72 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 71 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.85 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .228 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 16.7% | 99 | -0.45 | 2.23 | 367 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 1.41 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |