Royman Blanco
P
Salem Red Sox
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.6%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 9.6% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 3.57 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 19 | 2 | 39 | 176 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 0.5% | 4.15 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 16 | 0 | 34 | 138 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 10.8% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.07 | 3.32 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 16 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 13.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 5.08 | 2.95 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 33 | 1 | 70 | 299 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 3.75 | 4.29 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 3 | 207 | 902 | 105 | 59 | 11 | 11.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 3.62 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 3 | 200 | 870 | 101 | 57 | 11 | 11.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 3.43 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Royman Blanco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.38 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 171 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 92 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 90 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 89 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 89 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 87 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $4M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.