Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.16 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 9.6% | 10.1% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 1 | 16 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 14.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 3.12 | 2.93 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 19 | 2 | 39 | 176 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 11% | 2.1 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 4.15 | 3.32 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 19 | 2 | 39 | 176 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 11% | 2.1 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 0.6% | 4.15 | 2.59 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 16 | 0 | 34 | 138 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 10.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 1.07 | 3.32 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 16 | 0 | 34 | 138 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 15.9% | 3.6% | 12.3% | 0.7% | 1.07 | 2.62 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 13.6% | 1.3% | 12.3% | 1.6% | 5.08 | 2.97 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.7% | 0.8% | 15.9% | 2.3% | 5.08 | 3.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 33 | 1 | 70 | 299 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 2.1 | 10.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.41 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | 33 | 1 | 70 | 299 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 2.1 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 3.75 | 3.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 37 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.05 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 73 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.05 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 3 | 207 | 902 | 105 | 59 | 12 | 3% | 2.0 | 11.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 3.43 | 3.66 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 3 | 200 | 870 | 102 | 57 | 11 | 3% | 2.0 | 11.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 3.43 | 3.66 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Royman Blanco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 21.7% | 12.9% | 118 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 89 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 86 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 86 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 86 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.3% | .284 | 3.25 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 125 | -0.65 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.33 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.37 | 3.33 | 258 | 84 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 84 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.06 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.13 | 18.5% | 5.9% | 15 | -0.93 | 3.13 | 143 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.96 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.68 | 3.28 | 113 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 38 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 172 | 84 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.42 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.26 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.66 | 280 | 84 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 40 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 1.16 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |