Adrian Hernandez

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 5'8" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX4 levels	38	1	43	4.22	3.64	33.3%	11.9%	—	K 28.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.05
2023	23	AATOR	38	0	49	4.62	4.62	26.0%	18.6%	—	K 21.0% · BB 20.5% · FIP 5.34
2024	24	MIX2 levels	37	0	51	4.56	3.84	23.2%	11.6%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	27	0	28	4.54	4.54	21.9%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBTOR	10	0	10	4.57	4.61	22.0%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · C.C. Lee (age 27) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%21.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	13	8	55	232	64	21	2	62%	4.3	18.8%	11.3%	7.4%	1.2%	2.60	3.61	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	13	8	55	232	64	21	2	62%	4.3	27.6%	9.1%	18.5%	0.9%	2.60	2.40	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	16	0	21	100	15	8	1	0%	1.3	10.2%	10.0%	0.2%	1.4%	8.02	4.27	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	16	0	21	100	15	8	1	0%	1.3	15.0%	8.0%	7.0%	1.0%	8.02	3.43	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	62	251	108	28	5	6%	2.0	33.1%	12.9%	20.2%	2.6%	2.74	3.36	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	62	251	108	28	5	6%	2.0	43.0%	11.2%	31.9%	2.0%	2.74	2.03	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	43	177	59	21	6	3%	1.1	28.3%	12.3%	16.0%	5.1%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	1	43	177	59	21	6	3%	1.1	33.3%	11.9%	21.5%	3.4%	4.22	3.64	—
2023	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	38	0	49	231	60	43	5	0%	1.3	21.0%	20.5%	0.6%	2.6%	4.62	5.34	—
2023	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	38	0	49	231	60	43	5	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.6%	7.4%	2.2%	4.62	4.62	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.6%	4.56	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	51	233	54	27	5	0%	1.4	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.1%	4.56	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	27	0	28	118	26	12	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	26	0	27	116	25	12	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.61	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	78	19	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		173	11	282	1224	281	164	32	6%	1.6	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.28	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	8	200	869	200	117	22	6%	1.6	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.28	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.9%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.61	22.0%	11.8%	27	+0.07	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	83
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	82
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	82
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	82
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	82
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	82
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	82
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	82
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	82
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	82
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	82
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.9%	10.1%	1.17	4.55
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*