Matt Willrodt prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Willrodt P Everett AquaSox

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%22.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	11	2	26	125	23	11	1	18%	2.3	12.5%	11.0%	1.5%	1.1%	7.36	4.05	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	11	2	26	125	23	11	1	18%	2.3	18.4%	8.8%	9.6%	0.8%	7.36	3.10	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	69	298	64	24	5	0%	2.1	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.6%	4.57	4.22	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	0	69	298	64	24	5	0%	2.1	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	1.7%	4.57	3.23	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	1	54	249	56	31	4	3%	1.5	14.8%	14.4%	0.4%	2.6%	5.50	5.11	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	1	54	249	56	31	4	3%	1.5	22.5%	12.4%	10.0%	1.6%	5.50	3.71	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	26	0	28	123	30	14	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.1%	5.7%	1.6%	5.20	4.07	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	26	0	28	123	30	14	2	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	1.6%	5.20	3.39	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	31	146	39	21	1	0%	1.2	21.2%	16.7%	4.5%	0.9%	4.31	3.94	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	31	146	39	21	1	0%	1.2	21.2%	16.7%	4.5%	0.9%	4.31	3.94	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	31	146	39	21	1	0%	1.2	26.7%	14.4%	12.3%	0.7%	4.31	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	11.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.73	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	99	33	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		133	3	208	941	156	116	19	2%	1.6	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	2.0%	5.20	4.37	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	3	200	906	150	112	18	2%	1.6	16.6%	12.4%	4.2%	2.0%	5.20	4.37	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Willrodt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	22.9%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.73	22.7%	11.2%	20	+0.10	—	—	—
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	83
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	81
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	80
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	79
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	79