Tyler Baca — OGILVIE

Tyler BacaOF FCL Nationals

Age 27 S/L 5'9" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .267 / .280

PA76

HR1

K%32

BB%7

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	23	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	50	39	10	1	0	0	8	9	2	0	0	256	408	282	690	26	323	18	16	330	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	54	14	2	1	0	8	15	2	1	0	259	375	333	708	74	359	23	12	331	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	27	23	6	0	0	0	4	7	0	1	0	261	370	261	631		375	26	15	304	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	50	42	9	1	0	0	5	13	2	0	0	214	327	238	565	24	257	26	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	57	12	2	1	0	5	20	2	1	0	211	297	281	578	70	314	31	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		307	37	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	50	42	9	1	0	0	5	13	2	0	0	214	327	238	565	24	300	26	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	50	39	10	1	0	0	8	9	2	0	0	256	408	282	690	26	323	18	16	330	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	57	12	2	1	0	5	20	2	1	0	211	297	281	578	70	324	31	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	54	14	2	1	0	8	15	2	1	0	259	375	333	708	74	359	23	12	331	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		267	37	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	27	23	6	0	0	0	4	7	0	1	0	261	370	261	631		375	26	15	304	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	50	43	9	1	0	0	5	13	2	0	0	209	327	233	559	23	257	26	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	57	12	2	1	0	5	20	2	1	0	211	297	281	578	70	314	31	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		307	37	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	64	57	12	2	1	0	5	20	2	1	0	211	297	281	578	70	314	31	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		307	37	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	200	181	36	5	2	2	15	63	2	3	1	200	269	282	551	82	290	32	8	252	57	-10	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	26%	116	105	21	3	1	1	9	36	1	1	0	201	269	284	553	83	289	31	8	253	57	-6	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26%	30	28	5	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	200	268	281	549	81	288	30	7	252	57	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	30	28	5	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	179	233	214	448	36	263	30	7	252	54	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	607	109	22	0	0	43	195	0	0	0	180	234	216	450	36	265	30	7	252	54	-33	+0	-4	-4	+14	-2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	333	298	60	8	3	2	27	103	6	4	0	201	281	268	549	67	297	31	8	247	54	-10	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	118	16	6	4	53	201	12	8	0	203	283	271	555	69	299	31	8	247	54	-33	+1	-2	-4	+14	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Baca (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	199/267/280	81	290	1	1	32%	7%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Micah Gibbs 2015 · AA	27	39	39→30	47→45	44	190/260/273	82	274	6	8	31%	8%	53	-2.1	212/267/317	105	287	9	8	28%	7%	65	-1.2	194/244/307	113	259	9	0	28%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Jameson Fisher 2021 · AA	27	39→36	40	44→45	42	188/257/280	92	287	8	6	35%	8%	53	-2.1	216/270/329	113	305	11	6	31%	6%	69	-0.9	229/278/357	129	302	14	2	28%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Jackson Cluff 2024 · AA	27	36→30	41→45	51→60	43	178/259/280	102	271	8	15	35%	8%	55	-2.0	185/267/304	119	276	12	25	35%	9%	63	-1.3	167/253/282	115	245	12	32	35%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Jerome Pena 2016 · A	27	42→33	40	46→45	37	197/251/288	91	314	7	7	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/274/331	127	333	12	10	39%	9%	71	-0.8	168/251/312	143	267	16	10	41%	10%	56	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	184/249/269	85	263	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	14	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Chase Simpson 2017 · A	25	39→38	43→45	51→45	44	195/266/312	117	275	10	5	32%	8%	64	-1.3	196/254/310	114	290	11	7	34%	7%	59	-1.7	134/175/242	108	197	12	3	39%	4%	11	-1.2
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	185/253/290	105	260	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	194/264/295	101	308	9	6	37%	9%	59	-1.6	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→40	42→45	51→50	41	175/259/268	94	291	11	13	41%	9%	53	-2.1	205/294/329	124	325	13	13	37%	10%	79	-0.2	214/314/364	150	322	16	13	35%	11%	91	+0.4
✕JJ Muno 2021 · A	27	41	40	52→60	41	199/272/290	91	285	7	16	31%	7%	61	-1.5	194/277/285	91	277	8	26	31%	6%	63	-1.4	175/265/254	79	252	8	35	31%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Seaver Whalen 2021 · A	26	40	40→45	48→50	40	195/263/286	90	264	8	6	28%	5%	57	-1.8	205/273/326	121	263	12	10	26%	4%	71	-0.8	170/246/302	132	208	14	10	25%	3%	55	-0.7
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	32	42→40	49→45	42	169/233/265	96	237	10	5	32%	7%	40	-3.0	193/263/284	91	262	8	8	27%	8%	56	-1.9	178/258/254	76	233	6	7	25%	9%	45	-1.0
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	35→25	44→50	49→50	35	182/236/299	117	270	12	9	36%	5%	50	-2.3	212/272/323	111	293	10	10	30%	5%	69	-0.9	212/282/301	88	289	5	9	26%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	40→38	42→50	47→30	40	197/265/297	100	289	10	5	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/259/291	91	299	9	7	34%	7%	56	-1.9	160/219/212	52	241	7	0	35%	7%	21	-1.4
✕Skyler Stromsmoe 2011 · AA	27	43	39→40	54→50	43	207/263/291	84	263	6	13	23%	6%	57	-1.8	218/281/295	77	278	5	12	22%	7%	65	-1.2	217/286/286	68	275	4	12	21%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Jose Lozada 2012 · A	26	42	41→45	43→45	40	208/258/312	105	270	8	7	26%	5%	60	-1.6	217/270/297	80	283	6	7	24%	5%	61	-1.5	235/284/270	35	312	2	12	24%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Willie Argo 2017 · AA	27	43→37	39→40	52→55	47	207/287/293	86	286	7	17	28%	9%	68	-1.0	195/250/322	127	298	13	14	37%	6%	60	-1.6	154/210/279	125	232	14	17	39%	6%	35	-1.7
✕Erick Monzon 2009 · AA	27	37→42	41→45	51→50	43	188/241/282	94	248	8	12	27%	6%	47	-2.6	198/248/300	102	278	11	12	31%	6%	53	-2.1	173/213/257	84	237	13	13	32%	5%	28	-1.2
✕Victor Mendez 2007 · AAA	27	42	44→45	50	41	212/261/327	115	285	12	12	30%	6%	65	-1.2	224/281/346	122	295	12	10	27%	7%	77	-0.3	227/298/342	114	288	13	12	25%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Kenneth Williams 2012 · AA	26	41	39→45	41→45	38	201/246/287	86	279	6	5	30%	5%	50	-2.3	220/270/331	111	289	8	8	25%	6%	69	-0.9	232/281/363	131	294	8	8	23%	6%	78	-0.1