Regi Grace

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX3 levels	37	3	60	4.77	2.87	27.8%	10.7%	—	K 20.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.96
2023	23	MIX2 levels	44	1	74	3.18	2.87	27.1%	9.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.44
2024	24	AAMIN	31	0	43	4.19	4.12	17.8%	10.5%	—	K 14.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	25	0	26	4.71	4.71	20.1%	10.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIN	9	0	9	4.72	4.75	20.3%	10.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Joe Colón J (age 27) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.1%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	1	11	49	8	4	0	17%	1.8	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.76	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	1	11	49	8	4	0	17%	1.8	16.3%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	5.06	2.73	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	5	21	100	24	9	1	83%	3.5	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	1.4%	5.14	3.92	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	5	21	100	24	9	1	83%	3.5	24.0%	9.0%	15.0%	1.0%	5.14	2.72	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	8	31	127	35	11	3	89%	3.5	19.6%	10.7%	8.8%	3.6%	2.59	4.76	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	8	31	127	35	11	3	89%	3.5	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	2.4%	2.59	3.16	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	3	60	281	78	30	4	8%	1.6	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	2.0%	4.77	3.96	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	3	60	281	78	30	4	8%	1.6	27.8%	10.7%	17.1%	1.4%	4.77	2.87	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	74	306	83	28	5	2%	1.7	21.6%	10.1%	11.4%	1.6%	3.18	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	74	306	83	28	5	2%	1.7	27.1%	9.2%	18.0%	1.6%	3.18	2.87	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.97	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.97	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	31	0	43	191	34	20	4	0%	1.4	17.8%	10.5%	7.3%	2.1%	4.19	4.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	25	0	26	110	22	11	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	24	0	25	105	21	11	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.72	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.72	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	86	21	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.2%	10.1%	3.1%	4.72	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		133	18	240	1054	201	116	22	14%	1.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	2.1%	3.94	4.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	15	200	878	168	97	18	14%	1.8	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	2.1%	3.94	4.03	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Regi Grace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.1%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.75	20.3%	10.1%	25	+0.04	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	81
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	81
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	80
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	79
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	79
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.2%	10.2%	1.18	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*