Ky Bush — OGILVIE

Ky Bush P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA4.97

FIP5.30

K%17.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p1012.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

CH+1.4 (10%)

CU (15%)

SL (24%)

FB-5.4 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	28.5%	10.6%	17.9%	0.0%	4.50	2.04	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	37.0%	9.3%	27.8%	0.0%	4.50	1.02	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.5%	3.67	4.34	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.3%	3.67	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	6.3%	6.91	6.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	6.3%	6.91	6.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	24.1%	11.4%	12.7%	4.9%	6.91	5.37	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.8%	12.1%	5.7%	2.5%	3.63	4.49	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.8%	12.1%	5.7%	2.5%	3.63	4.49	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.63	3.94	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	18	87	11	15	2	100%	4.4	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	2.3%	5.60	5.87	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CWS	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.0%	4.97	5.30	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	24	24	142	599	105	74	18	100%	5.9	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	3.0%	5.08	5.23	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	138	581	103	71	18	100%	6.0	17.8%	12.2%	5.6%	3.1%	5.15	5.24	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	554	97	68	18	100%	6.0	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	-0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	123	521	88	65	18	100%	5.9	16.8%	12.4%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.53	-0.9
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	60	253	45	31	8	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	3.0%	5.08	5.23	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	86	363	65	44	11	100%	6.1	17.8%	12.2%	5.6%	3.1%	5.15	5.24	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	96	405	71	49	13	100%	6.0	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	98	414	70	51	14	100%	6.1	16.8%	12.4%	4.5%	3.5%	5.41	5.53	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	358	1524	261	192	49	100%	5.9	17.1%	12.6%	4.5%	3.2%	5.26	5.00	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	851	146	107	27	100%	5.9	17.1%	12.6%	4.5%	3.2%	5.26	5.00	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		67	65	311	1325	250	143	48	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	853	161	92	31	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ky Bush (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	17.1%	12.8%	3.0%	—	5.27	17.6%	5.3%	411	-0.03	—	—	—
Danny Duffy L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	17.3%	9.0%	2.8%	.292	3.96	22.7%	15.3%	481	-0.33	3.29	915	81
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	80
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.79	20.0%	12.2%	267	-1.32	2.79	473	79
Jared Shuster L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP	5.04	14.2%	11.3%	3.1%	.306	4.73	16.4%	8.1%	195	-0.31	3.92	539	78
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	77
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	73
Mike Belfiore L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	135	72
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	72
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	71
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	71
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	71
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	70
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	70
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	70
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.56	20.3%	11.1%	261	-0.60	3.58	688	70
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	70
Anthony Vasquez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	28	SP-	4.16	11.8%	9.3%	1.6%	.278	4.19	14.3%	7.3%	423	+0.03	4.02	642	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	69
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	69
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	133	17.4%	12.4%	1.23	5.17
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12