Ky Bush

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AASPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	AALAA	21	21	103	3.67	3.75	23.7%	6.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.34
2023	23	MIX2 levels	17	17	72	6.91	5.37	24.1%	11.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 13.2% · FIP 6.67
2024	24	MIX3 levels	24	22	124	3.63	3.94	21.3%	11.7%	2.2	K 17.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.48
2025	25	No MLB games played
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	2	2	9	4.80	5.02	18.8%	11.9%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCWS	8	8	47	4.90	5.02	19.0%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCWS	9	9	56	5.01	5.12	18.6%	11.6%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo11

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJared Koenig (age 27) · Misael Siverio (age 26) · Darin Gorski (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 129

ERA4.80

FIP5.02

K%18.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p1012.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	28.5%	10.6%	17.9%	0.0%	4.50	2.04	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	37.0%	9.3%	27.8%	0.0%	4.50	1.02	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.5%	3.67	4.34	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.3%	3.67	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	6.3%	6.91	6.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	24.1%	11.4%	12.7%	4.9%	6.91	5.37	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	2.5%	3.63	4.48	+1.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	2.5%	3.63	4.48	+1.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.63	3.94	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	18	87	11	15	2	100%	4.4	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	2.3%	5.60	5.87	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	2	2	9	38	7	5	1	100%	4.5	18.8%	11.9%	6.8%	2.9%	4.80	5.02	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	111	470	89	55	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.0%	4.90	5.02	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	399	74	46	13	100%	5.9	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	83	350	63	41	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.29	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	47	198	38	23	6	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.0%	4.90	5.02	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	56	236	44	27	8	100%	6.2	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	58	245	44	29	8	100%	5.8	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	179	768	137	94	24	100%	5.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.09	4.85	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	858	153	105	27	100%	5.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.09	4.85	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		67	65	311	1325	251	143	48	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	853	161	92	31	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 81 IPFIP 3.34 → 4.16 (+0.82)K% 24.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.61%	—	×0.810	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×1.100	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.935	×1.200	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 26 IPFIP 4.45 → 4.64 (+0.19)K% 19.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.97%	—	×0.860	16.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×0.900	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.016	×1.100	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 68 IPFIP 5.61 → 6.67 (+1.06)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.810	18.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	5.33%	÷1.013	×1.200	6.32%

Result: FIP 5.61 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Angels · 4 IPFIP 0.46 → 1.61 (+1.15)K% 37.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.680	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.250	5.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.910	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 0.46 → 1.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 103 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.34 (+0.58)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.65%	—	×0.810	19.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×1.100	7.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.131	×1.200	3.48%

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 12 IPFIP 1.15 → 2.04 (+0.90)K% 37.0% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.770	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×1.150	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.15 → 2.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ky Bush (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.13	18.6%	7.0%	289	+0.11	—	—	—
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	79
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	77
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	76
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	75
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	73
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	73
Jonathan Bermúdez L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	21.5%	10.5%	3.8%	.310	4.79	19.2%	7.0%	101	+0.12	3.24	469	72
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	72
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	71
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	71
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	71
Wandy Rodriguez L 2006 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	16.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.311	3.58	21.7%	14.6%	526	-0.85	3.37	1,572	70
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	70
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	69
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	69
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	69
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	69
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	68
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	68
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	101	18.4%	12.1%	1.19	4.99
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Wayne Simpson ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	3.2	106	17.4%*	11.0%*	1.09*	5.03*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*