Ky Bush
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 26
LHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
AA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA5.17
FIP4.88
xFIP7.03
SIERA6.99
K%20.0%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%8.5%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p3222.8%
K%
p1012.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
CH+1.4 (10%)
CU (15%)
SL (24%)
FB-5.4 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 5 | 5 | 12 | 54 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 28.5% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.04 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 21 | 21 | 103 | 427 | 101 | 29 | 14 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 3.67 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 17 | 17 | 72 | 324 | 78 | 37 | 16 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 6.91 | 6.66 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 24 | 22 | 124 | 520 | 111 | 61 | 11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 5.17 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 97 | 53 | 14 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 479 | 97 | 52 | 15 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 93 | 51 | 14 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 88 | 49 | 14 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 82 | 48 | 14 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 77 | 47 | 14 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.15 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 70 | 45 | 14 | 17.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 64 | 44 | 13 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 58 | 42 | 13 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 5.47 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 58 | 38 | 12 | 17.3% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 65 | 311 | 1325 | 251 | 145 | 48 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.88 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 853 | 162 | 93 | 31 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.88 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ky Bush (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 20.0% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 337 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 81 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.12 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .335 | 3.59 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 230 | -1.53 | 3.20 | 335 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 80 |
| Tim Hill L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .298 | 3.01 | 21.8% | 15.3% | 184 | -2.13 | 2.56 | 551 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 79 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 4.84 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.50 | 3.30 | 634 | 78 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 77 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 77 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 77 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 77 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 77 |
| Mike Minor L 2028 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 76 |
| Travis Bergen L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .259 | 4.49 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 47 | -0.24 | 2.48 | 143 | 76 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 76 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 76 |
| Zach Muckenhirn L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.08 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.35 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 103 | +0.27 | 2.98 | 377 | 76 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 75 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 75 |
| Harrison Musgrave L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.84 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 24 | +0.23 | 4.05 | 440 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.326 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$4M | ||