Gunnar Hoglund

P Athletics

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	16	16	61	6.05	4.10	17.8%	4.7%	—	K 10.4% · BB 6.1% · FIP 6.54
2024	24	MIX2 levels	24	23	131	3.44	3.82	22.7%	7.0%	—	K 18.6% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.64
2025	25	MIX2 levels	12	12	62	4.50	4.99	20.9%	7.1%	0.3	K 19.2% · BB 6.8% · FIP 5.16
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	5	5	29	4.93	5.03	18.6%	6.6%	0.1
2028PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBOAK	8	8	46	4.97	5.05	19.0%	7.0%	0.2
2029PROJ86% MLB	29	MLBOAK	7	7	41	5.06	5.15	18.7%	7.4%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo37

K%11

xwOBA vs10

CompsCole De Vries (age 27) · Ryan Watson (age 25) · Bryan Evans (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA4.93

FIP5.03

K%18.6%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	33	8	1	0	100%	2.7	24.2%	3.0%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.44	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	33	8	1	0	100%	2.7	24.2%	3.0%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.48	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	61	258	46	12	9	100%	3.8	10.4%	6.1%	4.3%	6.5%	6.05	6.54	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	61	258	46	12	9	100%	3.8	17.8%	4.7%	13.2%	3.5%	6.05	4.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	4.0%	3.44	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	4.0%	3.44	4.64	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	22.7%	7.0%	15.6%	3.2%	3.44	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	19.2%	6.8%	12.4%	5.1%	4.50	5.16	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	19.2%	6.8%	12.4%	5.1%	4.50	5.16	+0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	20.9%	7.1%	13.8%	5.1%	4.50	4.99	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	32	139	23	11	10	100%	5.4	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	7.2%	6.40	6.72	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	OAK	5	5	29	122	23	8	5	100%	5.8	18.6%	6.6%	12.1%	4.2%	4.93	5.03	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	56	239	45	17	10	100%	6.3	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	4.2%	4.97	5.05	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	47	199	37	15	8	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.4%	11.3%	4.2%	5.06	5.15	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	46	194	37	14	8	100%	5.8	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	4.2%	4.97	5.05	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	32	13	7	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.4%	11.3%	4.2%	5.06	5.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	20	119	505	92	37	25	100%	5.9	18.2%	7.4%	10.8%	5.0%	5.39	5.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	849	155	62	42	100%	5.8	18.2%	7.4%	10.8%	5.0%	5.39	5.25	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		55	54	262	1070	181	73	50	98%	4.8	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%	4.7%	4.20	5.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	818	138	56	39	98%	4.8	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%	4.7%	4.20	5.12	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 30 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.23 (+0.13)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.09%	—	×0.900	5.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.183	×1.100	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 105 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.44 (+0.90)K% 23.4% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.43%	—	×0.810	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.100	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.940	×1.200	3.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 26 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.40 (+0.36)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.82%	—	×0.860	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.01%	—	×0.900	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.50%	÷1.001	×1.100	4.95%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AStockton Ports · 43 IPFIP 5.15 → 6.54 (+1.40)K% 14.1% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.06%	—	×0.740	10.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.21%	—	×1.180	6.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷0.945	×1.300	6.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 5.15 → 6.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 13 IPFIP 1.08 → 1.75 (+0.67)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.150	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.209	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 1.08 → 1.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 5 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.39 (+0.40)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Athletics · 5 IPFIP 0.14 → 1.09 (+0.95)K% 35.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.680	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.14 → 1.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gunnar Hoglund (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.2%	—	5.10	18.8%	11.7%	104	+0.07	—	—	—
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	76
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	74
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	72
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	71
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	71
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	70
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	70
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	70
J.D. Martin R 2010 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	14.6%	4.7%	4.2%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	414	70
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	69
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	69
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	69
Brady Rodgers R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	15.0%	6.0%	2.6%	.333	5.44	14.7%	5.7%	49	+1.41	1.98	354	69
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	69
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	68
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	45	18.4%	7.1%	1.83	5.24
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*