Gunnar Hoglund — OGILVIE

Gunnar Hoglund P Athletics

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.06

FIP5.20

K%18.3%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

SI (17%)

CT-0.6 (7%)

FB-2.0 (52%)

SL-2.2 (17%)

CH-3.5 (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	8	33	8	1	0	100%	2.7	24.2%	3.0%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.44	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	8	33	8	1	0	100%	2.7	24.2%	3.0%	21.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.48	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	61	258	46	12	9	100%	3.8	10.4%	6.1%	4.3%	6.5%	6.05	6.54	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	61	258	46	12	9	100%	3.8	10.4%	6.1%	4.3%	6.5%	6.05	6.54	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	61	258	46	12	9	100%	3.8	17.8%	4.7%	13.2%	3.5%	6.05	4.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	18.4%	7.4%	11.1%	4.0%	3.44	4.65	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	18.4%	7.4%	11.1%	4.0%	3.44	4.65	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	131	525	119	37	17	96%	5.4	22.7%	7.0%	15.6%	3.2%	3.44	3.82	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	18.9%	6.8%	12.0%	5.1%	4.50	5.19	-0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	18.9%	6.8%	12.0%	5.1%	4.50	5.19	-0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	62	254	53	18	13	100%	5.2	20.9%	7.1%	13.8%	5.1%	4.50	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	6	32	139	23	11	10	100%	5.4	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	7.2%	6.40	6.72	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	OAK	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	4.5%	5.06	5.20	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	25	25	148	627	117	41	27	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.6%	12.1%	4.4%	5.07	5.14	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	144	608	114	42	27	100%	6.0	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	4.4%	5.10	5.16	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	137	580	107	41	26	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	4.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	129	546	97	40	25	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.4%	10.3%	4.6%	5.34	5.46	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	24	24	141	595	111	39	26	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.6%	12.1%	4.4%	5.07	5.14	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	137	578	109	40	25	100%	6.0	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	4.4%	5.10	5.16	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	131	553	102	39	25	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	4.5%	5.18	5.27	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	OAK	20	20	123	519	92	39	24	100%	6.2	17.8%	7.4%	10.3%	4.6%	5.34	5.46	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	563	2381	436	167	110	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	4.6%	5.24	4.97	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	155	59	39	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	4.6%	5.24	4.97	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		55	54	262	1070	180	73	50	98%	4.8	16.8%	6.8%	10.0%	4.7%	4.20	5.14	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	818	137	56	39	98%	4.8	16.8%	6.8%	10.0%	4.7%	4.20	5.14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gunnar Hoglund (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	18.3%	6.4%	4.5%	—	5.19	18.6%	11.8%	430	-0.01	—	—	—
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	77
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	77
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	70
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	70
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	70
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	69
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	69
Henderson Alvarez R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.2%	6.4%	3.8%	.306	5.22	12.4%	4.7%	121	+0.53	3.67	176	69
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	68
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	68
Alex Williams R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	23	SP	5.80	19.3%	9.4%	5.7%	.300	4.47	18.3%	8.3%	235	-1.33	3.77	335	67
Thomas Hatch R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	22.6%	7.3%	3.7%	.276	4.23	19.3%	11.4%	206	+0.06	3.18	878	67
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	67
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	66
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	66
Zach Haake R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SP	4.45	16.8%	9.0%	3.0%	.291	4.72	20.2%	6.1%	49	+0.27	3.44	272	66
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	65
Dustin Beggs R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.329	5.09	11.3%	3.6%	48	+0.70	3.40	407	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	139	18.4%	6.9%	1.72	5.15
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38