Gunnar Hoglund
P
Athletics
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 118
ERA5.08
FIP5.23
K%18.6%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP120
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p1116.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.408
SI (17%)
CT-0.6 (7%)
FB-2.0 (52%)
SL-2.2 (17%)
CH-3.5 (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 24.2% | 3.0% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.44 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 24.2% | 3.0% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.48 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 12 | 9 | 100% | 3.8 | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.05 | 6.76 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 12 | 9 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.8% | 4.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 6.05 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 131 | 525 | 119 | 37 | 17 | 96% | 5.4 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 3.44 | 4.78 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 131 | 525 | 119 | 37 | 17 | 96% | 5.4 | 22.7% | 7.0% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 3.44 | 3.82 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 62 | 254 | 53 | 18 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 4.50 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 62 | 254 | 53 | 18 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 4.50 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 17 | 101 | 428 | 80 | 29 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 5.08 | 5.23 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 25 | 25 | 148 | 627 | 119 | 44 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 116 | 44 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 5.13 | 5.19 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 108 | 43 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 113 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 5.17 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 110 | 41 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 5.13 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 103 | 41 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 5.21 | 5.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 74 | 441 | 1863 | 348 | 135 | 86 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 5.24 | 4.97 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 158 | 61 | 39 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 5.24 | 4.97 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 54 | 262 | 1070 | 182 | 75 | 52 | 98% | 4.8 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 4.20 | 5.24 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 818 | 139 | 58 | 40 | 98% | 4.8 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 4.20 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gunnar Hoglund (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | — | 5.22 | 18.9% | 11.7% | 430 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cobb R 2028 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 77 |
| Griffin Canning R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 73 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| Seth Shuman R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.45 | 14.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .273 | 4.93 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 139 | -0.52 | 3.05 | 338 | 71 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 70 |
| Alex Williams R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 70 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2028 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 70 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 69 |
| Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.32 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.34 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 225 | +0.02 | 2.26 | 1,022 | 69 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 69 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.49 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 235 | 69 |
| Henderson Alvarez R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.98 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .306 | 5.46 | 12.4% | 4.7% | 121 | +0.48 | 3.67 | 176 | 69 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.85 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 238 | 69 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 69 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.63 | 19.7% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.62 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 101 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 420 | 69 |
| James Hicks R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.23 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 227 | 68 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 68 |
| Spencer Jones R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.45 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 171 | 68 |
| Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 192 | 68 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2025 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 133 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 1.71 | 5.13 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |