Clay Aguilar prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Clay Aguilar P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%24.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	5	52	203	71	11	3	23%	2.4	26.7%	7.1%	19.6%	2.1%	1.90	2.91	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	5	52	203	71	11	3	23%	2.4	35.0%	5.4%	29.6%	1.5%	1.90	1.75	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	50	220	69	28	3	3%	1.4	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.3%	3.62	3.51	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	50	220	69	28	3	3%	1.4	26.2%	14.9%	11.3%	1.3%	3.62	3.51	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	50	220	69	28	3	3%	1.4	31.4%	12.7%	18.6%	1.4%	3.62	2.80	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	2	0	3	23	2	2	3	0%	1.7	8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	13.0%	27.00	10.63	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	2	0	3	23	2	2	3	0%	1.7	8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	13.0%	27.00	10.63	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	2	0	3	23	2	2	3	0%	1.7	8.7%	8.7%	0.0%	13.0%	27.00	15.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	11.5%	12.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	24	0	25	107	26	12	3	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	40	10	5	1	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.20	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	105	21	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.54	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		60	6	105	446	114	49	10	10%	1.7	25.5%	11.0%	14.5%	2.3%	3.51	3.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	11	200	850	217	94	20	10%	1.7	25.5%	11.0%	14.5%	2.3%	3.51	3.61	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Clay Aguilar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	24.2%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.58	24.0%	12.6%	25	+0.07	—	—	—
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	79
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	78
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	78
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	77
Ryan O'Rourke L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	27.4%	12.9%	2.6%	.284	3.05	23.4%	16.7%	53	-0.80	3.05	145	77
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	76
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	76
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	76
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	76
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	76
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	75
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.09	24.5%	13.4%	175	+0.40	3.48	291	75
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	75
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	75
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	75
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	75
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	24.1%	11.4%	1.16	4.52
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35