Sam Thoresen — OGILVIE

Sam Thoresen P Knoxville Smokies

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%23.2%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	7	23	100	36	17	0	100%	3.3	26.6%	20.1%	6.6%	0.0%	3.13	3.39	—
2021	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	7	23	100	36	17	0	100%	3.3	36.0%	17.0%	19.0%	0.0%	3.13	2.19	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	6	42	9	14	0	67%	0.9	21.4%	33.3%	-11.9%	0.0%	15.88	5.51	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	6	42	9	14	0	67%	0.9	21.4%	33.3%	-11.9%	0.0%	15.88	7.34	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	5	0	12	64	17	13	0	0%	2.4	20.5%	23.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	4.50	4.33	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	5	0	12	64	17	13	0	0%	2.4	26.6%	20.3%	6.2%	0.0%	4.50	3.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	28	117	40	23	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	26.4%	-3.5%	0.0%	1.63	4.51	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	0	28	117	40	23	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	26.4%	-3.5%	0.0%	1.63	4.51	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	0	28	117	40	23	1	0%	1.3	34.2%	19.7%	14.5%	0.9%	1.63	3.17	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	27	129	39	29	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	25.1%	-1.3%	0.0%	3.95	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	27	129	39	29	0	0%	1.1	23.8%	25.1%	-1.3%	0.0%	3.95	4.27	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	27	129	39	29	0	0%	1.1	30.2%	22.5%	7.8%	0.0%	3.95	3.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CHC	14	0	15	63	15	12	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	19.3%	3.8%	2.8%	5.50	5.50	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	19	16	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	18.6%	4.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.51	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	6	5	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	18.6%	4.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.51	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	5	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	18.6%	4.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.13	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	160	32	0%	1.1	22.9%	18.6%	4.4%	3.0%	5.46	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		66	11	96	452	106	112	0	17%	1.4	23.5%	24.8%	-1.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.26	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	23	200	945	222	235	0	17%	1.4	23.5%	24.8%	-1.4%	0.0%	3.86	4.26	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Thoresen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	23.2%	19.3%	2.8%	—	5.51	22.9%	4.4%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	77
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	76
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	74
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	73
Zack Jones R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	27.7%	24.1%	2.2%	.167	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	109	73
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	72
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	72
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	71
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	71
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	71
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	71
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	71
Zack Leban R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	20.2%	18.8%	1.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	71
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70