Alec Marsh

P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSPArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	124	6.88	4.94	26.9%	10.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 6.29
2023	25	MIX3 levels	31	22	137	5.20	4.29	25.8%	11.3%	1.0	K 23.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.69
2024	26	MIX2 levels	31	30	148	4.14	3.75	23.9%	7.1%	2.0	K 23.4% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.93
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	21	21	126	4.43	4.36	22.9%	8.1%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBKC	19	19	113	4.37	4.43	22.2%	8.4%	0.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBKC	18	18	105	4.53	4.65	21.4%	8.8%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.453First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$3M2030Arb-4$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%51

FB Velo45

Whiff%37

xwOBA vs24

CompsYariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Jose Samayoa (age 29) · Merrill Kelly (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.43

FIP4.36

K%22.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

CH+0.7 (10%)

SI (14%)

CU (16%)

FB-1.0 (51%)

SL-5.6 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.9M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	32.1%	13.5%	18.6%	4.7%	4.97	4.70	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	6	6	25	106	42	13	4	100%	4.2	39.6%	12.3%	27.4%	3.8%	4.97	3.38	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	6.7%	6.88	6.29	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	579	156	59	28	100%	4.6	26.9%	10.2%	16.8%	4.8%	6.88	4.94	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	23.7%	11.6%	12.1%	3.9%	5.20	4.69	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	22	137	620	160	70	21	71%	4.4	25.8%	11.3%	14.5%	3.4%	5.20	4.29	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.14	3.93	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.14	3.93	+1.7
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	148	618	148	44	20	97%	4.8	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	3.2%	4.14	3.75	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	33	203	890	208	77	35	77%	4.7	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.9%	4.96	4.43	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	21	21	126	532	122	43	17	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	3.3%	4.43	4.36	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	119	502	111	42	17	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.5%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	111	468	100	41	17	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.8%	12.7%	3.7%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	102	433	89	40	17	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.9%	4.90	5.05	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	113	477	106	40	15	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	3.2%	4.37	4.43	+0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	95	39	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	8.8%	12.7%	3.4%	4.53	4.65	+0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	85	37	15	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	86	519	2222	494	194	80	90%	5.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.31	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	857	190	75	31	90%	5.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		95	85	434	1923	454	194	89	89%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	885	209	89	41	89%	4.6	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	4.6%	5.30	4.93	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Marsh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	22.9%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.79	21.5%	12.7%	332	+0.43	—	—	—
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	70
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	67
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	67
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	65
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	65
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	65
Manny Barreda R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	28	SP	3.85	19.2%	10.0%	2.0%	.275	5.21	18.1%	8.6%	104	+1.36	3.30	376	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	65
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	65
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	64
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	64
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	64
Jeremy Kehrt R 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	15.2%	5.3%	1.6%	.297	4.25	12.1%	3.9%	143	+0.88	3.37	262	63
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	110	22.3%	8.6%	1.42	4.72
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Slick Castleman ('34-'39, 2 WAR*)	2.9	117	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.45*	4.67*