Samuel Vásquez

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 233 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	42	53	4.05	4.39	21.6%	16.7%	—	K 14.4% · BB 20.8% · FIP 5.43
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	57	3.16	3.36	20.1%	11.9%	—	K 15.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.01
2026	26	AAMIA	4	3	9.00	6.77	12.5%	31.2%	—	K 12.5% · BB 31.2% · FIP 6.00
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	36	38	5.22	5.22	18.0%	13.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	13	14	5.18	5.21	18.4%	13.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Julian Arballo (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.0%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians/Brewers	12	12	41	196	34	21	1	100%	3.4	11.8%	13.4%	-1.6%	0.7%	5.88	4.19	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians/Brewers	12	12	41	196	34	21	1	100%	3.4	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	0.5%	5.88	3.29	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	11	5	36	153	30	21	2	45%	3.3	13.3%	17.2%	-3.8%	1.8%	4.21	5.15	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	11	5	36	153	30	21	2	45%	3.3	19.6%	13.7%	5.9%	1.3%	4.21	3.90	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Indians	12	7	27	133	22	23	3	58%	2.2	11.2%	21.6%	-10.4%	2.1%	8.33	6.05	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Indians	12	7	27	133	22	23	3	58%	2.2	16.5%	17.3%	-0.8%	2.3%	8.33	5.47	—
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	0	22	117	23	20	3	0%	1.1	14.5%	20.2%	-5.6%	3.3%	9.55	6.23	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	0	22	117	23	20	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	17.1%	2.6%	2.6%	9.55	5.55	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	35	0	42	188	47	25	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	15.7%	2.8%	1.4%	4.50	4.27	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	35	0	42	188	47	25	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	1.1%	4.50	3.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	14.4%	20.8%	-6.4%	1.7%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	14.4%	20.8%	-6.4%	1.7%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	245	53	41	4	0%	1.3	21.6%	16.7%	4.9%	1.6%	4.05	4.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	1.0%	3.16	4.01	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	1.0%	3.16	4.01	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	57	244	49	29	2	0%	1.2	20.1%	11.9%	8.2%	0.8%	3.16	3.36	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	12.5%	31.2%	-18.8%	0.0%	9.00	6.00	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	12.5%	31.2%	-18.8%	0.0%	9.00	6.00	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	3	16	2	5	0	0%	0.8	12.5%	31.2%	-18.8%	0.0%	9.00	6.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	36	0	38	160	29	22	4	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	2.8%	5.22	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	35	0	37	157	29	21	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	2.9%	5.18	5.21	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	13	0	14	59	11	8	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	2.9%	5.18	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	11	8	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	2.9%	5.18	4.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	115	29	0%	1.1	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	2.9%	5.18	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		181	24	282	1292	186	223	20	13%	1.6	14.4%	17.2%	-2.8%	1.5%	5.11	4.92	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	17	200	917	132	158	14	13%	1.6	14.4%	17.2%	-2.8%	1.5%	5.11	4.92	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Vásquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.0%	13.7%	2.8%	—	5.21	18.4%	5.0%	37	-0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	88
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	85
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	83
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	82
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	82
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	18.2%	13.5%	1.10	5.20
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*