Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 10 | 44 | 207 | 32 | 23 | 1 | 91% | 4.0 | 10.5% | 13.9% | -3.4% | 0.7% | 5.98 | 4.34 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 10 | 44 | 207 | 32 | 23 | 1 | 91% | 4.0 | 15.5% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 5.98 | 3.51 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 8 | 8 | 35 | 146 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 4.56 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 8 | 8 | 35 | 146 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 3.18 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 8 | 67 | 296 | 69 | 39 | 8 | 36% | 3.0 | 17.2% | 15.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 5.26 | 4.82 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 22 | 8 | 67 | 296 | 69 | 39 | 8 | 36% | 3.0 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 4.34 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 42 | 0 | 53 | 252 | 60 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 6.75 | 4.23 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 42 | 0 | 53 | 252 | 60 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 6.75 | 3.89 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 40 | 1 | 50 | 226 | 44 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 5.01 | 3.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 40 | 1 | 50 | 226 | 44 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.3 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 5.01 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 75 | 325 | 69 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 75 | 325 | 69 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.2% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 1.8% | 3.36 | 3.14 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 4 | 71 | 309 | 54 | 44 | 5 | 8% | 1.4 | 15.4% | 15.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 3.06 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 4 | 71 | 309 | 54 | 44 | 5 | 8% | 1.4 | 17.5% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.06 | 4.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 42 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 49 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 28 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 15.1% | -0.4% | 2.7% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 28 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 15.1% | -0.4% | 2.7% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 89 | 368 | 77 | 48 | 10 | — | — | 20.9% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 47 | 198 | 77 | 48 | 10 | — | — | 38.8% | 24.0% | 14.8% | 5.1% | 8.45 | 5.67 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 43 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 45 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.39 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 230 | 0 | 243 | 1023 | 168 | 147 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.06 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 138 | 121 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.5% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 263 | 31 | 439 | 1939 | 321 | 237 | 42 | 12% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.49 | 4.43 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 14 | 200 | 883 | 146 | 108 | 19 | 12% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.49 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eddy Yean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.63 | 14.7% | 15.1% | 2.7% | — | 5.42 | 16.6% | 2.4% | 206 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 87 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 86 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 86 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 86 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 86 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 85 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 85 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.47 | 13.2% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .330 | 5.36 | 16.5% | -2.2% | 23 | +0.89 | 4.47 | 132 | 85 |
| Scott Griggs R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 11.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.01 | 19.7% | 8.0% | 112 | -1.07 | 3.06 | 176 | 85 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 84 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 84 |
| Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.74 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 1.7% | .263 | 3.67 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 88 | -1.07 | 3.29 | 165 | 84 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 84 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.62 | 14.5% | 15.6% | 1.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 117 | 84 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 84 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 83 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 83 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 18.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .278 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 90 | -0.20 | 4.16 | 164 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 16.3% | 14.4% | 1.08 | 5.46 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |