Kelvin Bautista

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 155 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	ALAA	40	46	5.44	4.14	24.8%	21.4%	—	K 18.3% · BB 25.3% · FIP 5.05
2024	25	MIX2 levels	40	54	5.30	2.75	29.1%	11.5%	—	K 22.7% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.64
2025	26	AALAD	41	47	6.65	5.49	18.0%	18.9%	—	K 14.6% · BB 20.8% · FIP 5.98
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAD	56	59	6.32	6.32	15.3%	20.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBLAD	17	18	6.20	6.25	15.8%	19.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBLAD	26	27	6.19	6.28	16.1%	18.7%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control20Command20

CompsBraulio Lara (age 28) · R.C. Orlan (age 28) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 153

ERA6.32

FIP6.32

K%15.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.7%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers 2	18	0	27	122	25	17	0	0%	1.5	13.9%	17.4%	-3.5%	0.0%	5.00	4.13	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers 2	18	0	27	122	25	17	0	0%	1.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	0.0%	5.00	3.14	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	14	0	29	118	46	13	1	0%	2.1	26.5%	13.8%	12.7%	1.2%	2.48	3.26	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	14	0	29	118	46	13	1	0%	2.1	39.0%	11.0%	28.0%	0.8%	2.48	1.72	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	19	0	25	101	32	12	0	0%	1.3	21.5%	14.9%	6.7%	0.0%	1.82	3.16	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	19	0	25	101	32	12	0	0%	1.3	31.7%	11.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.82	1.96	—
2022	23	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	42	0	54	267	55	48	2	0%	1.3	15.2%	21.2%	-6.0%	0.8%	6.17	4.93	—
2022	23	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	42	0	54	267	55	48	2	0%	1.3	20.6%	18.0%	2.6%	0.7%	6.17	4.21	—
2023	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	0	46	238	59	51	1	0%	1.2	18.3%	25.3%	-6.9%	0.5%	5.44	5.05	—
2023	24	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	40	0	46	238	59	51	1	0%	1.2	24.8%	21.4%	3.4%	0.4%	5.44	4.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	1.5%	5.30	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	1.5%	5.30	3.64	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	54	244	71	28	3	0%	1.4	29.1%	11.5%	17.6%	1.2%	5.30	2.75	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	14.6%	20.8%	-6.2%	2.7%	6.65	5.98	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	14.6%	20.8%	-6.2%	2.7%	6.65	5.98	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	41	0	47	233	42	44	5	0%	1.2	18.0%	18.9%	-0.9%	2.1%	6.65	5.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAD	56	0	59	249	38	50	7	0%	1.1	15.3%	20.0%	-4.7%	2.9%	6.32	6.32	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	56	237	38	45	7	0%	1.0	15.8%	19.1%	-3.3%	3.1%	6.20	6.25	-1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	50	0	53	223	36	42	7	0%	1.1	16.1%	18.7%	-2.6%	3.3%	6.19	6.28	-1.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	17	0	18	76	12	15	2	0%	1.1	15.8%	19.1%	-3.3%	3.1%	6.20	6.25	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	26	0	27	114	18	21	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	18.7%	-2.6%	3.3%	6.19	6.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	30	36	6	0%	1.0	16.0%	18.9%	-2.9%	3.2%	6.19	5.89	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	161	27	0%	1.1	16.0%	18.9%	-2.9%	3.2%	6.19	5.89	-3.1
Career	—	MLE		214	0	283	1323	244	250	15	0%	1.3	18.4%	18.9%	-0.4%	1.1%	5.09	4.54	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	936	172	177	10	0%	1.3	18.4%	18.9%	-0.4%	1.1%	5.09	4.54	-4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.32	15.3%	20.0%	2.9%	—	6.26	16.0%	-3.0%	109	-0.06	—	—	—
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	77
R.C. Orlan L 2019 · 6.15 FIP	28	SU	6.15	13.8%	19.5%	3.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	1.71	206	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	74
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	73
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	71
Evan Lee L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	26	SU	5.38	17.2%	25.3%	0.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	129	71
Austin Briggs L 2024 · 5.30 FIP	28	SU	5.30	12.1%	19.1%	1.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	187	69
Fabian Williamson L 2017 · 5.87 FIP	28	SU	5.87	11.4%	18.1%	2.6%	.404	4.78	20.5%	-0.6%	30	-1.09	3.39	154	68
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	67
Cam Booser L 2022 · 6.54 FIP	30	SU	6.54	20.8%	20.7%	4.7%	.350	4.49	24.8%	15.2%	157	-2.05	2.76	314	67
Mason Melotakis L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	27	SU	5.66	12.0%	11.4%	3.9%	.343	7.85	14.7%	2.5%	29	+2.19	3.32	142	66
Marcus Reyes L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	27	SU	5.84	12.7%	15.3%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	193	66
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	65
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	65
Matt Thornton L 2005 · 5.92 FIP	28	SU	5.92	21.8%	15.3%	5.0%	.270	2.98	24.4%	17.2%	178	-2.94	1.71	663	64
Aaron Fletcher L 2022 · 5.28 FIP	26	SU	5.28	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	167	63
Jack Patterson L 2024 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.4%	20.5%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	127	63
Ron Mahay L 2000 · 6.03 FIP	29	SU	6.03	16.1%	12.1%	5.0%	.353	4.58	22.4%	12.1%	81	-1.45	3.14	568	63
Jimmy Robbins L 2024 · 5.73 FIP	26	SU	5.73	19.6%	15.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	176	62
Greg Nappo L 2017 · 6.26 FIP	28	SU	6.26	12.3%	12.6%	4.7%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	144	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	15.7%	19.3%	1.19	6.24
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*