Jose A. Ferrer
P
Seattle Mariners
+1.1
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 233 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA3.92
FIP3.61
xFIP3.95
SIERA3.69
K%21.5%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%15.5%
IP59
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p850.278
FB (65%)
SI (64%)
CH-0.9 (19%)
SL-1.3 (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 14 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 2.16 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 2 | 22 | 94 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 2.91 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 17 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 0.9% | 2.78 | 2.75 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 48 | 0 | 65 | 256 | 78 | 11 | 8 | 22.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.48 | 3.75 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 73 | 0 | 74 | 321 | 58 | 30 | 8 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 39 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 19.4% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 3.10 | 2.42 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 72 | 0 | 76 | 324 | 71 | 15 | 5 | 21.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 4.48 | 2.77 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 9 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 52 | 13 | 5 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 3.86 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 59 | 250 | 58 | 14 | 5 | 23.1% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 3.71 | 3.01 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 3.55 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 23.1% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.41 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 3.47 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 22.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 3.53 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 21.4% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 20.8% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 20.2% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.92 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 19.5% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 31 | 12 | 5 | 17.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | SEA | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 38 | MLB | SEA | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 281 | 2 | 351 | 1478 | 305 | 109 | 25 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 3.54 | 3.23 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 174 | 62 | 14 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 3.54 | 3.23 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose A. Ferrer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.42 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 2.1% | — | 3.42 | 22.9% | 17.0% | 172 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 74 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 70 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 70 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.54 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .311 | 3.91 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 158 | +0.37 | 2.79 | 325 | 70 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 23.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.42 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 156 | +0.86 | 3.29 | 228 | 68 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 68 |
| Jason Gurka L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 67 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 67 |
| Enny Romero L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.55 | 26.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.30 | 16.4% | 11.5% | 10 | +2.75 | 3.52 | 188 | 67 |
| Kevin Canelon L 2024 · 2.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 2.74 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 1.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 289 | 67 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.0% | .316 | 4.60 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.45 | 3.15 | 430 | 67 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.65 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.70 | 332 | 66 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 66 |
| Jeff Malm L 2025 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 66 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 65 |
| Taylor Guilbeau L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.06 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 1.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 303 | 65 |
| Jordan Jess L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 65 |
| Tyler Samaniego L 2026 · 2.63 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.63 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 1.2% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 139 | 65 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% | .276 | 2.71 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 145 | -0.71 | 2.65 | 256 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.0 | $8M | +$4M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.0 | $8M | +$3M |
| Totals | $12M | $25M | +$13M | ||