Jose A. Ferrer
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 233 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6978vR 87
ERA3.38
FIP3.05
K%21.1%
BB%5.1%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p820.281
FB (71%)
SI (71%)
CH-0.9 (17%)
SL-1.3 (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 14 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 2.16 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 14 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 38.1% | 7.9% | 30.2% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 0.67 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 2 | 22 | 94 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 22% | 2.4 | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.91 | 3.82 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 2 | 22 | 94 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 22% | 2.4 | 25.5% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 0.0% | 2.91 | 2.68 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 17 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 0.9% | 2.78 | 2.75 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 17 | 0 | 36 | 153 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 24.8% | 0.7% | 2.78 | 1.59 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 65 | 256 | 78 | 11 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 5.2% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 2.48 | 3.61 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 65 | 256 | 78 | 11 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.5% | 4.3% | 26.2% | 3.1% | 2.48 | 2.81 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 74 | 321 | 58 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 74 | 321 | 58 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 4.7% | 14.7% | 0.8% | 3.10 | 2.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 6.2% | 15.0% | 0.6% | 3.10 | 2.49 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 72 | 0 | 76 | 324 | 71 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 4.6% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 4.48 | 2.68 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 72 | 0 | 76 | 324 | 71 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 4.6% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 4.48 | 2.68 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 0 | 40 | 174 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.5% | 5.7% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 2.95 | 3.12 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.1% | 16.0% | 2.0% | 3.38 | 3.05 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.1% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 3.36 | 3.03 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 64 | 278 | 56 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 20.1% | 5.5% | 14.6% | 1.8% | 3.12 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 64 | 272 | 56 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 20.6% | 5.6% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 3.11 | 3.09 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 3.57 | 3.45 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 55 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 5.3% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 3.55 | 3.54 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 51 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 46 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 42 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 3.54 | 3.42 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 5.3% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 3.52 | 3.51 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 15.1% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 472 | 0 | 483 | 2038 | 416 | 112 | 41 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 3.19 | +12.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 172 | 46 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 5.5% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 3.19 | +5.2 | ||
| Career | — | 316 | 2 | 383 | 1621 | 333 | 118 | 27 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 3.50 | 3.20 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 174 | 62 | 14 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 3.50 | 3.20 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose A. Ferrer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.33 | 22.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | — | 3.56 | 21.1% | 15.7% | 184 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .241 | 4.69 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.22 | 3.47 | 315 | 74 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 71 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 70 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .311 | 3.61 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 158 | +0.15 | 2.83 | 325 | 70 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.42 | 23.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .275 | 4.30 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 156 | +0.88 | 3.33 | 228 | 69 |
| Jeff Malm L 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 68 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.79 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.83 | 2.69 | 703 | 68 |
| Jordan Jess L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 67 |
| Enny Romero L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 26.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.19 | 16.4% | 11.5% | 10 | +2.68 | 3.49 | 188 | 67 |
| Tyler Samaniego L 2026 · 2.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.75 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.07 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 38 | +1.32 | 2.75 | 177 | 67 |
| Jason Gurka L 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.09 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.22 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.59 | 183 | 66 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.68 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.59 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.91 | 3.68 | 332 | 66 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.81 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.1% | .253 | 3.58 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 65 | +0.77 | 2.81 | 115 | 66 |
| Connor Thomas L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .326 | 3.32 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 25 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 494 | 66 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 66 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.96 | 16.9% | 6.0% | 0.9% | .316 | 4.26 | 24.4% | 13.7% | 119 | +1.30 | 2.51 | 190 | 65 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.55 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .276 | 2.75 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 145 | -0.80 | 2.68 | 256 | 65 |
| Taylor Guilbeau L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.04 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 303 | 65 |
| Kevin Canelon L 2024 · 2.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 2.71 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 1.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 289 | 65 |
| Joel Bender L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.57 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 117 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 59 | 20.8% | 5.4% | 0.88 | 3.69 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Tony Watson ('21) | 6 | 64 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 3.09 |
| Adam Cimber ('24) | 6 | 52 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 0.75 | 3.75 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |