Jose A. Ferrer — OGILVIE

Jose A. Ferrer P Seattle Mariners

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 233 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8088vR 96

ERA3.57

FIP3.24

K%19.9%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p1018.2%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB (71%)

SI (70%)

CH-0.9 (17%)

SL-1.3 (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	30	139	53	11	0	0%	2.1	25.9%	9.9%	16.0%	0.0%	3.60	2.16	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	0	30	139	53	11	0	0%	2.1	38.1%	7.9%	30.2%	0.0%	3.60	0.67	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	9	2	22	94	24	13	0	22%	2.4	17.4%	17.3%	0.1%	0.0%	2.91	3.82	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	9	2	22	94	24	13	0	22%	2.4	25.5%	13.8%	11.7%	0.0%	2.91	2.68	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	17	0	36	153	47	9	1	0%	2.1	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	0.9%	2.78	2.76	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	17	0	36	153	47	9	1	0%	2.1	30.7%	5.9%	24.8%	0.7%	2.78	1.59	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	65	256	78	11	8	0%	1.4	22.8%	5.2%	17.6%	3.6%	2.48	3.78	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	65	256	78	11	8	0%	1.4	30.5%	4.3%	26.2%	3.1%	2.48	2.81	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	74	321	58	30	8	0%	1.0	16.3%	8.8%	7.6%	2.5%	4.38	4.23	+0.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	74	321	58	30	8	0%	1.0	16.3%	8.8%	7.6%	2.5%	4.38	4.23	+0.3
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	73	0	74	321	58	30	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.7%	2.5%	4.38	4.15	+0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	41	160	34	10	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	0.8%	3.10	2.48	+1.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	41	160	34	10	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	4.7%	14.7%	0.8%	3.10	2.48	+1.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	41	160	34	10	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	6.2%	15.0%	0.6%	3.10	2.49	+1.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	72	0	76	324	71	15	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	4.6%	17.3%	1.5%	4.48	2.68	+1.7
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	72	0	76	324	71	15	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	4.6%	17.3%	1.5%	4.48	2.68	+1.7
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	72	0	76	324	71	15	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	4.6%	17.3%	1.5%	4.48	2.68	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			209	0	202	863	169	48	16	0%	1.0	19.6%	5.6%	14.0%	1.9%	4.18	3.17	+3.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	67	0	60	268	48	16	6	0%	0.9	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.3%	3.75	3.60	+0.7
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	67	0	60	268	48	16	6	0%	0.9	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.3%	3.75	3.60	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	SEA	67	0	60	268	48	16	6	0%	0.9	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.2%	3.75	3.57	+0.7
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SEA	67	0	60	268	48	16	6	0%	0.9	17.9%	6.0%	11.9%	2.2%	3.75	3.57	+0.7
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SEA	5	0	5	23	5	1	0	0%	1.1	19.9%	5.2%	14.6%	2.1%	3.57	3.24	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SEA	5	0	5	21	4	1	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	5.2%	14.6%	2.1%	3.55	3.22	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	65	291	53	17	6	—	—	18.1%	5.9%	12.2%	2.2%	3.74	3.57	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	65	276	53	17	6	—	—	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	2.3%	3.73	3.57	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	68	286	58	15	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	5.3%	14.9%	2.2%	3.76	3.65	+0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	SEA	63	0	66	277	56	15	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.5%	14.6%	2.3%	3.74	3.73	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	SEA	60	0	63	265	52	15	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	2.4%	3.83	3.89	+0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	SEA	61	0	64	270	55	14	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	5.3%	14.9%	2.1%	3.73	3.62	+0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	SEA	59	0	62	262	53	14	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	5.5%	14.6%	2.2%	3.71	3.70	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	SEA	57	0	60	253	49	14	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	2.4%	3.80	3.86	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		392	0	394	1672	331	92	34	0%	1.0	19.8%	5.5%	14.2%	2.0%	3.97	3.25	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	849	168	47	17	0%	1.0	19.8%	5.5%	14.2%	2.0%	3.97	3.25	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		339	2	404	1715	345	121	31	1%	1.2	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	1.8%	3.59	3.29	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	1	200	850	171	60	15	1%	1.2	20.1%	7.1%	13.1%	1.8%	3.59	3.29	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose A. Ferrer (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.33	22.4%	4.7%	2.1%	—	3.75	20.0%	14.5%	196	+0.42	—	—	—
Josh Osich L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SU	3.41	21.2%	7.0%	2.2%	.241	4.68	18.1%	7.1%	137	+1.27	3.41	315	75
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	70
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	70
Enny Romero L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	26.5%	8.6%	2.9%	.316	6.23	16.4%	11.5%	10	+2.72	3.51	188	70
Wandy Peralta L 2017 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	21.7%	8.7%	2.8%	.257	4.77	17.1%	6.7%	127	+0.85	2.69	725	70
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	69
Jake Palisch L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.0%	8.2%	3.4%	.304	4.64	11.2%	3.0%	274	+0.44	3.88	317	69
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	68
Cam Alldred L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	19.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.318	4.56	18.0%	8.6%	140	+0.86	3.70	332	68
Jason Gurka L 2015 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	17.5%	7.0%	1.2%	.303	3.25	23.4%	17.6%	95	+0.10	2.82	183	68
Keith Hessler L 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.275	4.41	18.3%	6.9%	156	+0.93	3.31	228	67
Jordan Jess L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	25	SU	3.64	19.3%	5.3%	2.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	136	67
Sammy Solís L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	26	SU	2.96	16.9%	6.0%	0.9%	.316	4.24	24.4%	13.7%	119	+1.28	2.51	190	67
Taylor Guilbeau L 2019 · 3.05 FIP	26	SU	3.05	20.9%	8.1%	1.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	303	66
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	66
Kyle Regnault L 2015 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	17.3%	7.8%	0.8%	.248	3.28	22.8%	13.5%	146	+0.19	2.88	204	66
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	26	SU	2.93	22.6%	8.3%	1.3%	.253	3.60	15.8%	2.7%	65	+0.67	2.93	115	66
Arturo Barradas L 2015 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	16.3%	6.2%	1.5%	.250	3.54	14.3%	7.3%	95	+0.23	3.24	163	66
Gabriel Sequeira L 2023 · 3.19 FIP	25	SU	3.19	21.0%	8.8%	1.4%	.276	4.92	23.0%	2.4%	14	+1.73	2.62	160	66
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	65	20.6%	5.3%	0.87	3.75
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38