Jhosmer Alvarez

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	7	4	9	4.82	7.60	20.9%	16.3%	—	K 20.9% · BB 16.3% · FIP 7.22
2024	23	MIX3 levels	41	0	48	3.19	3.04	20.8%	9.2%	—	K 13.7% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.91
2025	24	AAARI	26	0	41	4.79	4.38	19.0%	15.2%	—	K 15.4% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	57	0	60	5.92	5.92	14.4%	16.8%	-0.9
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBARI	21	0	22	5.79	5.80	15.3%	16.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBARI	32	0	34	5.74	5.77	15.8%	15.7%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Trey Haley (age 26) · Mike Hepple (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%14.4%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	13	13	56	236	48	17	0	100%	4.3	13.8%	9.0%	4.8%	0.0%	2.72	3.07	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	13	13	56	236	48	17	0	100%	4.3	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	0.0%	2.72	2.30	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	5	1	10	42	15	3	0	20%	1.9	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	6.52	0.99	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	5	1	10	42	15	3	0	20%	1.9	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	6.52	0.93	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	10	39	18	5	0	0%	2.0	46.2%	12.8%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.83	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	10	39	18	5	0	0%	2.0	46.2%	12.8%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.00	—
2022	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	10	49	6	6	1	0%	1.9	12.2%	12.2%	0.0%	2.0%	5.59	4.74	—
2022	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	10	49	6	6	1	0%	1.9	12.2%	12.2%	0.0%	2.0%	5.59	5.07	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	9	43	9	7	3	57%	1.3	20.9%	16.3%	4.7%	7.0%	4.82	7.22	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	9	43	9	7	3	57%	1.3	20.9%	16.3%	4.7%	7.0%	4.82	7.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	207	43	19	2	0%	1.2	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	1.2%	3.19	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	207	43	19	2	0%	1.2	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	1.2%	3.19	3.91	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	48	207	43	19	2	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	1.0%	3.19	3.04	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	0	41	184	35	28	3	0%	1.6	15.4%	16.7%	-1.3%	1.5%	4.79	4.72	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	0	41	184	35	28	3	0%	1.6	15.4%	16.7%	-1.3%	1.5%	4.79	4.72	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	0	41	184	35	28	3	0%	1.6	19.0%	15.2%	3.8%	1.6%	4.79	4.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	57	0	60	253	36	42	7	0%	1.1	14.4%	16.8%	-2.4%	2.8%	5.92	5.92	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	247	38	40	7	0%	1.0	15.3%	16.1%	-0.8%	2.9%	5.79	5.80	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	57	240	38	38	7	0%	1.1	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	3.0%	5.74	5.77	-0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	21	0	22	93	14	15	3	0%	1.0	15.3%	16.1%	-0.8%	2.9%	5.79	5.80	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	32	0	34	144	23	23	4	0%	1.1	15.8%	15.7%	0.1%	3.0%	5.74	5.77	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	37	37	7	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.8%	-0.3%	2.9%	5.76	5.40	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	133	133	25	0%	1.1	15.6%	15.8%	-0.3%	2.9%	5.76	5.40	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		102	18	184	800	137	94	9	18%	1.8	17.2%	11.8%	5.4%	1.1%	3.61	3.78	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	20	200	868	149	102	10	18%	1.8	17.2%	11.8%	5.4%	1.1%	3.61	3.78	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhosmer Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	14.4%	16.8%	2.8%	—	5.79	15.5%	-0.4%	115	-0.13	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	83
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	81
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	81
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	80
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	79
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	78
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	78
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	78
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	77
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	77
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	77
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	77
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	77
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	76
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	15.1%	16.2%	1.11	5.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*