Jhosmer Alvarez
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%7.9%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 17 | 0 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 2.72 | 3.07 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 5 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.52 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.59 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 7 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 4.82 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 41 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 43 | 19 | 2 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 1.2% | 3.19 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 0 | 41 | 184 | 35 | 28 | 3 | 15.4% | 16.7% | 1.5% | 4.79 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 19.0% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 19.1% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 18.9% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 5.25 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 18 | 184 | 800 | 137 | 94 | 9 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 3.61 | 3.77 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 20 | 200 | 868 | 149 | 102 | 10 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 3.61 | 3.77 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhosmer Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.07 | 18.9% | 5.4% | 102 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.97 | 18.1% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 4.34 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 90 | -0.63 | 4.05 | 164 | 89 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.16 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .324 | 6.29 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.13 | 4.92 | 103 | 89 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.26 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.0% | .320 | 5.24 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | -0.02 | 5.24 | 116 | 89 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 88 |
| Derek Eitel R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 87 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 119 | 87 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .309 | 4.63 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.36 | 4.27 | 328 | 87 |
| Carlos Ramirez R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 18.9% | 14.5% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.11 | 23.5% | 14.5% | 103 | -1.14 | 2.63 | 177 | 87 |
| Rene Coss R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .250 | 4.78 | 13.0% | 2.1% | 82 | +0.69 | 3.87 | 123 | 86 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 86 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.36 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.7% | .256 | 3.85 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.51 | 3.85 | 189 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.77 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.73 | 3.77 | 108 | 86 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.38 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 85 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 85 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 85 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 4.14 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -0.85 | 3.41 | 159 | 85 |
| Isrrael De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 2.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 100 | 85 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.44 | 17.8% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.14 | 14.6% | 5.6% | 128 | +0.70 | 4.06 | 386 | 85 |
| Yaramil Hiraldo R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 18.5% | 15.5% | 2.5% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 137 | 85 |
| Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.72 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.70 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 88 | -1.02 | 3.29 | 165 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.