Jhosmer Alvarez
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 155 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 131
ERA5.84
FIP5.84
K%13.6%
BB%16.7%
K-BB%-3.1%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 2.72 | 3.07 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 2.72 | 2.30 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 5 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 20% | 1.9 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 6.52 | 0.99 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 5 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 20% | 1.9 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 6.52 | 0.93 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 46.2% | 12.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.83 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 46.2% | 12.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.00 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.59 | 4.74 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 10 | 49 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.59 | 5.07 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 57% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 4.82 | 7.22 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 57% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 4.82 | 7.60 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 43 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 3.19 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 43 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 1.0% | 3.19 | 3.04 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 0 | 41 | 184 | 35 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.4% | 16.7% | -1.3% | 1.2% | 4.79 | 4.56 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 0 | 41 | 184 | 35 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.0% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 4.79 | 4.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 34 | 42 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 16.7% | -3.1% | 2.5% | 5.84 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 39 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 15.9% | -0.5% | 2.6% | 5.65 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 15.5% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 15.9% | -0.5% | 2.6% | 5.65 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 15.5% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 42 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 15.7% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.59 | 5.20 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 133 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 15.7% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.59 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 18 | 184 | 800 | 137 | 94 | 8 | 18% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 3.61 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 20 | 200 | 868 | 149 | 102 | 9 | 18% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 3.61 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhosmer Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.84 | 13.6% | 16.7% | 2.5% | — | 5.59 | 15.7% | 0.0% | 118 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 84 |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 83 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 83 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 82 |
| Aroni Nina R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.8% | 20.5% | 1.3% | .312 | 3.06 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.94 | 2.68 | 115 | 82 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 82 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 81 |
| Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.74 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 1.7% | .263 | 3.67 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 88 | -1.07 | 3.29 | 165 | 81 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 81 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 81 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 81 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.52 | 13.7% | 17.6% | 2.5% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 178 | 80 |
| Livan Reinoso R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 15.1% | 17.7% | 1.5% | .229 | 5.44 | 16.5% | -2.0% | 87 | +0.57 | 4.34 | 207 | 80 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2027 · 6.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.27 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 2.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 103 | 80 |
| Wandi Montout R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 13.4% | 18.7% | 1.9% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 103 | 80 |
| Luke Savage R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 79 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 79 |
| Leandro Linares R 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 79 |
| Miguel Rosario R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.84 | 16.4% | 18.6% | 1.4% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 197 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 15.0% | 16.0% | 1.01 | 5.68 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |