Valente Bellozo — OGILVIE

Valente Bellozo P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 221 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.79

FIP5.22

K%13.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

SL (21%)

SI (11%)

CU (5%)

CH (18%)

CT-1.4 (24%)

FB-1.9 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	14	8	52	196	42	16	0	57%	3.7	14.6%	10.2%	4.4%	0.0%	1.74	3.16	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	14	8	52	196	42	16	0	57%	3.7	21.4%	8.2%	13.3%	0.0%	1.74	2.40	—
2019	19	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	1	13	53	11	2	0	33%	4.3	15.4%	4.5%	10.9%	0.0%	2.77	2.37	—
2019	19	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	3	1	13	53	11	2	0	33%	4.3	20.8%	3.8%	17.0%	0.0%	2.77	1.87	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	49	195	54	18	1	67%	3.2	19.5%	12.3%	7.2%	0.8%	2.59	3.47	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	49	195	54	18	1	67%	3.2	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	0.5%	2.59	2.26	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	16	110	473	106	32	23	62%	4.2	17.4%	7.7%	9.6%	4.9%	5.55	5.32	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	16	110	473	106	32	23	62%	4.2	17.4%	7.7%	9.6%	4.9%	5.55	5.32	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	16	110	473	106	32	23	62%	4.2	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	4.9%	5.55	4.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	4.7%	4.14	5.13	-0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	4.7%	4.14	5.13	-0.4
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	135	583	116	44	25	96%	5.0	19.9%	7.5%	12.3%	4.3%	4.14	4.77	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	3.7%	4.02	4.62	-0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	3.7%	4.02	4.62	-0.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	101	426	73	30	15	27%	2.7	17.1%	7.0%	10.1%	3.5%	4.02	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	19	161	691	106	48	35	40%	3.3	15.3%	6.9%	8.4%	5.1%	4.43	5.51	-1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	32	20	118	571	69	58	33	62%	3.7	9.7%	9.1%	0.6%	5.9%	8.37	6.67	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	32	20	118	571	69	58	33	62%	3.7	9.7%	9.1%	0.6%	5.9%	8.37	6.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	COL	29	20	108	523	61	53	28	69%	3.7	11.7%	10.1%	1.5%	5.4%	8.44	6.34	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	11	48	8	5	5	0%	3.6	16.7%	10.4%	6.2%	10.4%	7.59	8.73	-0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	11	48	8	5	5	0%	3.6	16.7%	10.4%	6.2%	10.4%	7.59	8.73	-0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	7	30	4	2	1	100%	7.0	13.3%	7.9%	5.3%	4.1%	4.79	5.22	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	COL	1	1	7	30	4	2	1	100%	7.0	13.3%	7.9%	5.3%	4.1%	4.79	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	125	601	73	60	34	—	—	12.1%	10.0%	2.1%	5.7%	8.17	6.59	-2.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	18	75	73	60	34	—	—	97.8%	80.9%	16.9%	45.9%	57.95	30.27	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	123	521	75	42	24	100%	6.5	14.4%	8.2%	6.3%	4.6%	5.66	5.84	-1.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	123	521	74	43	25	100%	6.5	14.3%	8.3%	6.0%	4.7%	5.82	5.93	-1.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	118	497	68	42	24	100%	6.5	13.7%	8.5%	5.2%	4.9%	5.98	6.09	-1.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	111	467	61	41	24	100%	6.5	13.0%	8.8%	4.2%	5.1%	6.17	6.30	-1.6
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	117	494	71	40	23	100%	6.5	14.4%	8.2%	6.3%	4.6%	5.66	5.84	-1.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	117	494	71	41	23	100%	6.5	14.3%	8.3%	6.0%	4.7%	5.82	5.93	-1.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	112	473	65	40	23	100%	6.6	13.7%	8.5%	5.2%	4.9%	5.98	6.09	-1.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	105	443	58	39	23	100%	6.6	13.0%	8.8%	4.2%	5.1%	6.17	6.30	-1.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	90	619	2627	374	211	128	76%	5.2	14.3%	8.0%	6.2%	4.9%	5.50	5.60	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	29	200	849	121	68	41	76%	5.2	14.3%	8.0%	6.2%	4.9%	5.50	5.60	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		154	91	577	2497	385	207	102	59%	3.7	15.4%	8.3%	7.1%	4.1%	4.88	5.09	-7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	865	133	72	35	59%	3.7	15.4%	8.3%	7.1%	4.1%	4.88	5.09	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Valente Bellozo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	14.1%	7.8%	4.0%	—	5.95	14.1%	5.8%	365	+0.46	—	—	—
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	75
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	73
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	72
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	72
Erick Fedde R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	26	SP-	5.06	14.8%	8.4%	3.9%	.287	4.81	18.1%	9.4%	311	-0.25	3.34	1,249	71
Randy Dobnak R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	26	SP-	4.95	12.7%	7.4%	3.6%	.304	4.27	17.8%	7.6%	280	-0.68	3.01	962	71
Tyler Thornburg R 2015 · 5.59 FIP	26	SW	5.59	15.4%	8.9%	4.9%	.295	3.65	28.7%	19.3%	104	-1.94	2.56	301	71
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	71
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	71
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	70
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	70
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	12.6%	5.3%	3.0%	.289	3.81	15.5%	7.0%	329	-0.56	3.13	593	69
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	69
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	69
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	69
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	68
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	110	13.9%	8.3%	1.83	5.78
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84