Randy Dobnak

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	33	24	143	4.34	3.90	22.2%	10.5%	2.6	K 19.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.05
2025	30	MIX2 levels	27	18	104	5.62	4.88	16.7%	11.3%	0.6	K 14.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.16
2026	31	MIX2 levels	30	28	155	3.95	3.91	14.6%	7.6%	2.8	K 13.6% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	32	MLBKC	11	11	67	4.51	4.69	14.7%	7.7%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	9	9	52	4.79	4.97	13.8%	8.2%	0.3
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBKC	6	6	33	5.08	5.27	12.9%	8.6%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo18

K%10

Form7.15 ERA (proj 4.51) · K 15.0% (proj 14.7%) · BB 5.0% (proj 7.7%) ▲ last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Jesus Adrian Castillo (age 32) · Andres Ivan Meza (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.51

FIP4.69

K%14.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	14.5%	7.3%	7.2%	4.1%	2.43	5.03	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	2.3%	2.43	3.52	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	11.5%	5.5%	6.1%	1.2%	3.14	3.50	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	15.6%	4.6%	10.9%	1.1%	3.14	2.98	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	17.5%	5.4%	12.0%	1.3%	1.98	3.01	+4.9
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	20.4%	5.1%	15.3%	1.1%	1.98	2.65	+5.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.60	+1.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.61	+1.0
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	12.7%	7.4%	5.3%	3.6%	6.15	4.95	+0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	14.4%	7.1%	7.4%	3.5%	6.15	4.76	+0.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	4.0%	4.32	6.05	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	20.2%	14.0%	6.1%	2.6%	4.32	4.74	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.7%	2.3%	5.13	4.12	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	2.1%	5.13	3.96	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.05	+2.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.05	+2.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	22.2%	10.5%	11.6%	2.4%	4.34	3.90	+2.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.62	5.16	+0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.8%	10.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.62	5.16	+0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.62	4.88	+0.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	13.6%	7.2%	6.3%	2.1%	3.95	4.03	+2.5
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	13.6%	7.2%	6.3%	2.1%	3.95	4.03	+2.5
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	155	672	98	51	13	93%	5.2	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	1.9%	3.95	3.91	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	34	215	931	134	62	24	63%	4.0	14.4%	6.7%	7.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.17	+3.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	KC	11	11	67	283	42	22	8	100%	6.1	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.69	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	54	230	32	19	7	100%	6.0	13.8%	8.2%	5.7%	3.0%	4.79	4.97	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	6	6	36	152	20	13	5	100%	6.0	12.9%	8.6%	4.3%	3.3%	5.08	5.27	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	30	18	7	100%	5.8	13.8%	8.2%	5.7%	3.0%	4.79	4.97	+0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	33	139	18	12	5	100%	5.5	12.9%	8.6%	4.3%	3.3%	5.08	5.27	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	48	299	1287	182	92	35	71%	4.4	14.1%	7.1%	7.0%	2.7%	4.54	4.30	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	32	200	860	122	61	23	71%	4.4	14.1%	7.1%	7.0%	2.7%	4.54	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		224	173	997	4287	664	343	99	77%	4.5	15.5%	8.0%	7.5%	2.3%	4.02	4.08	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	860	133	69	20	77%	4.5	15.5%	8.0%	7.5%	2.3%	4.02	4.08	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 81 IPFIP 3.76 → 3.93 (+0.17)K% 14.0% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.96%	—	×0.860	12.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.12%	—	×0.900	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 99 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.16 (+0.48)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.19%	—	×0.860	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×0.900	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.872	×1.100	3.66%

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 133 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.05 (+0.21)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.67%	—	×0.860	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.66%	—	×0.900	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 126 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.12 (+0.21)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.860	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.72%	—	×0.900	9.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 20 IPFIP 5.30 → 6.05 (+0.75)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.880	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.02%	—	×1.050	17.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷0.881	×1.100	3.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 5.30 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 18 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.59 (+0.26)K% 17.3% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.33%	—	×0.880	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.050	14.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.121	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 67 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.33 (+0.65)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.810	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.28%	—	×1.100	2.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 46 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.03 (+0.25)K% 18.7% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.68%	—	×0.880	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.89%	—	×1.050	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.958	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Dobnak (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	5.09	13.5%	5.1%	90	+0.40	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	82
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	79
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	77
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	76
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	74
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	73
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	73
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	73
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	71
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	69
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	69
Michael Nix R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	32	SP	3.82	12.4%	8.9%	1.2%	.310	4.60	11.9%	0.3%	115	+0.78	3.82	234	69
Cesar Carrillo R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	12.8%	9.3%	2.0%	.301	5.76	11.4%	1.2%	103	+1.48	4.14	336	69
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	69
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	69
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	68
Salvador Valdez R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	32	SP	3.66	12.2%	5.1%	1.7%	.353	3.76	10.8%	4.1%	172	+0.10	3.60	326	68
Alex Caldera R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	30	SP	4.54	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	120	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	53	14.2%	7.3%	1.05	4.54
Donne Wall ('02)	2.4	59	16.1%	7.7%	1.18	4.20
Adrian Devine ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	1.9	65	16.7%*	7.8%*	1.12*	4.45*
Rick Bauer ('08)	1.6	63	13.6%	8.9%	0.99	4.51
Jerry Reed ('81-'90, 3 WAR*)	2.4	60	16.6%*	8.2%*	1.08*	3.97*
Rusty Meacham ('01)	1.7	49	13.3%	6.2%	1.02	4.43
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*