Randy Dobnak
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION160 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.89
FIP4.79
K%16.2%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 223 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+2.7 (48%)
CH+1.1 (24%)
SI (35%)
SL-2.1 (28%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 33 | 130 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 67% | 5.6 | 14.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.43 | 5.03 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 33 | 130 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 67% | 5.6 | 17.7% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 2.43 | 3.52 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 24 | 20 | 129 | 539 | 84 | 25 | 6 | 83% | 5.4 | 11.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 1.1% | 3.14 | 3.42 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 24 | 20 | 129 | 539 | 84 | 25 | 6 | 83% | 5.4 | 15.6% | 4.6% | 10.9% | 1.1% | 3.14 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 33 | 26 | 163 | 648 | 132 | 33 | 7 | 79% | 4.9 | 17.5% | 5.4% | 12.0% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 3.01 | +4.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 33 | 26 | 163 | 648 | 132 | 33 | 7 | 79% | 4.9 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 15.3% | 1.1% | 1.98 | 2.65 | +5.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 10 | 10 | 47 | 200 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 13.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 4.05 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 10 | 10 | 47 | 200 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 13.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 4.05 | 3.61 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 11 | 72 | 312 | 45 | 22 | 11 | 58% | 3.8 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 6.15 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 11 | 72 | 312 | 45 | 22 | 11 | 58% | 3.8 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 6.15 | 4.76 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 6 | 25 | 114 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 55% | 2.3 | 17.8% | 17.9% | -0.1% | 4.6% | 4.32 | 6.39 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 6 | 25 | 114 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 55% | 2.3 | 20.2% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.74 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 31 | 26 | 126 | 569 | 115 | 61 | 12 | 84% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 5.13 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 31 | 26 | 126 | 569 | 115 | 61 | 12 | 84% | 4.1 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 5.13 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 24 | 143 | 636 | 141 | 67 | 15 | 73% | 4.3 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.16 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 24 | 143 | 636 | 141 | 67 | 15 | 73% | 4.3 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 3.90 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 104 | 467 | 78 | 53 | 14 | 67% | 3.9 | 15.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.62 | 5.69 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 104 | 467 | 78 | 53 | 14 | 67% | 3.9 | 16.7% | 11.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.62 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 28 | 160 | 697 | 92 | 53 | 11 | 93% | 5.3 | 11.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.15 | 4.02 | +2.6 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 43 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 43 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 223 | 964 | 135 | 81 | 19 | — | — | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 4.36 | 4.24 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 73 | 307 | 135 | 81 | 19 | — | — | 44.0% | 26.4% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 13.39 | 6.19 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 44 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 38 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.63 | 5.77 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 237 | 32 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 5.89 | 6.07 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 42 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.42 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 36 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.63 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 29 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 13.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 5.89 | 6.07 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 81 | 61 | 387 | 1649 | 239 | 153 | 54 | 75% | 4.8 | 14.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 4.83 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 31 | 200 | 853 | 124 | 79 | 28 | 75% | 4.8 | 14.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.14 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 224 | 173 | 1003 | 4312 | 662 | 376 | 99 | 77% | 4.5 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.17 | +14.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 35 | 200 | 860 | 132 | 75 | 20 | 77% | 4.5 | 15.4% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Randy Dobnak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | — | 5.76 | 14.6% | 3.0% | 185 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 80 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 74 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 73 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 73 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 72 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 71 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 70 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 69 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Mat Latos R 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 67 |
| J.D. Martin R 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.84 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.47 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.63 | 4.84 | 289 | 66 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2024 · 5.80 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.80 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 290 | 64 |
| Chris Heston R 2024 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 64 |
| Luis Mateo R 2024 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 63 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 63 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 63 |
| Derek Eitel R 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 62 |
| Elih Villanueva R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.43 | 14.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 225 | 62 |
| JC Ramírez R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.37 | 12.2% | 10.1% | 3.7% | .309 | 6.58 | 15.7% | 1.7% | 35 | +1.21 | 3.73 | 369 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 64 | 15.3% | 11.4% | 1.39 | 5.54 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |