Randy Dobnak — OGILVIE

Randy Dobnak P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION150 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.63

FIP4.54

K%14.7%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

FB+2.7 (48%)

CH+1.1 (24%)

SI (35%)

SL-2.1 (28%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	14.5%	7.3%	7.2%	4.1%	2.43	5.03	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	67%	5.6	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	2.3%	2.43	3.52	—
2018	23	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	11.5%	5.5%	6.1%	1.2%	3.14	3.50	—
2018	23	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	83%	5.4	15.6%	4.6%	10.9%	1.1%	3.14	2.98	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	17.5%	5.4%	12.0%	1.3%	1.98	3.01	+3.9
2019	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	79%	4.9	20.4%	5.1%	15.3%	1.1%	1.98	2.65	+4.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.60	+0.7
2020	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	100%	4.7	13.5%	6.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.05	3.61	+0.7
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	12.7%	7.4%	5.3%	3.6%	6.15	4.95	-0.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	58%	3.8	14.4%	7.1%	7.4%	3.5%	6.15	4.76	+0.1
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	17.8%	17.9%	-0.1%	4.0%	4.32	6.05	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	55%	2.3	20.2%	14.0%	6.1%	2.6%	4.32	4.74	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	16.8%	9.6%	7.1%	2.3%	5.13	4.17	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	16.8%	9.6%	7.1%	2.3%	5.13	4.17	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	84%	4.1	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	2.1%	5.13	3.96	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.34	4.10	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	18.8%	9.6%	9.2%	2.5%	4.34	4.10	+1.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	73%	4.3	22.2%	10.5%	11.6%	2.4%	4.34	3.90	+1.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.3%	10.2%	4.0%	3.7%	5.62	5.20	-0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	14.3%	10.2%	4.0%	3.7%	5.62	5.20	-0.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	67%	3.9	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.62	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	32	210	899	132	59	23	62%	4.0	14.7%	6.6%	8.1%	2.6%	4.16	4.11	+2.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	26	150	640	96	48	12	93%	5.4	13.7%	7.1%	6.6%	2.0%	3.60	3.97	+1.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	26	150	640	96	48	12	93%	5.4	13.7%	7.1%	6.6%	2.0%	3.60	3.97	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	KC	15	15	81	351	49	25	6	100%	5.4	14.0%	7.1%	6.8%	1.7%	4.35	3.76	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	KC	13	11	69	289	47	23	6	85%	5.3	16.3%	8.0%	8.3%	2.1%	2.73	3.87	+0.9
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	KC	13	11	69	289	47	23	6	85%	5.3	16.3%	8.0%	8.3%	2.1%	2.73	3.87	+0.9
ROS	31	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	6	27	4	2	1	100%	6.4	14.7%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.54	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.7%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	4.63	4.54	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	156	667	100	50	13	—	—	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	1.9%	3.64	3.99	+1.7
FULL	31	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	76	320	100	50	13	—	—	31.3%	15.7%	15.6%	4.0%	7.52	4.65	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	67	284	44	26	8	100%	6.1	15.5%	9.2%	6.3%	3.0%	4.90	4.97	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	261	38	25	8	100%	6.2	14.6%	9.6%	5.0%	3.2%	5.11	5.25	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	64	270	42	25	8	100%	5.8	15.5%	9.2%	6.3%	3.0%	4.90	4.97	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	59	249	36	24	8	100%	5.9	14.6%	9.6%	5.0%	3.2%	5.11	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	54	339	1443	214	110	40	73%	4.6	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	2.8%	4.47	4.33	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	32	200	852	126	65	24	73%	4.6	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	2.8%	4.47	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		222	171	992	4255	650	340	98	77%	4.5	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	2.3%	3.97	4.09	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	34	200	858	131	68	20	77%	4.5	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	2.3%	3.97	4.09	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Dobnak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	16.3%	9.4%	3.1%	—	5.10	15.1%	5.7%	129	+0.10	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	81
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	75
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	72
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	71
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	200	70
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	70
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	69
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	68
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	65
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	64
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.85	289	63
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	63
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	62
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	62
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	61
Sean O'Sullivan R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP-	5.76	11.9%	11.7%	4.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	290	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	15.5%	9.4%	1.20	5.03
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10