Randy Dobnak — OGILVIE

Randy Dobnak P Tacoma Rainiers

+0.1 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

xFIP5.33

SIERA6.04

K%18.4%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%7.3%

IP104

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.388

FB+2.7 (48%)

CH+1.1 (24%)

SI (35%)

SL-2.1 (28%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	22	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	6	4	33	130	23	7	3	14.5%	7.3%	4.1%	2.43	5.03	-0.0
2018	23	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	24	20	129	539	84	25	6	11.5%	5.5%	1.3%	3.14	3.53	+2.6
2019	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	33	26	163	648	132	33	7	17.5%	5.4%	1.3%	1.98	3.01	+4.2
2020	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	10	10	47	200	27	13	3	13.5%	6.5%	1.6%	4.05	3.66	+0.7
2021	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	19	11	72	312	45	22	11	12.7%	7.4%	3.8%	6.15	5.07	-0.0
2022	27	AAA	St. Paul Saints	11	6	25	114	23	16	3	17.8%	17.9%	3.9%	4.32	5.98	-0.3
2023	28	AAA	St. Paul Saints	31	26	126	569	115	61	12	17.8%	11.3%	2.3%	5.13	4.28	+1.5
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	33	24	143	636	141	67	15	20.0%	11.2%	2.5%	4.34	4.20	+1.8
2025	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	27	18	104	467	78	53	14	15.1%	12.0%	3.6%	5.62	5.29	+0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	3	3	14	71	10	7	2	12.4%	10.4%	3.1%	6.43	5.07	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB	SEA	19	19	104	439	73	53	13	16.7%	12.1%	3.0%	5.31	5.26	+0.0
2026 Total	31	MLB	SEA	—	—	118	510	83	60	15	16.3%	11.8%	3.0%	5.44	5.24	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	SEA	18	18	100	421	68	52	13	16.1%	12.2%	3.1%	5.35	5.37	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	SEA	17	17	95	402	62	50	13	15.4%	12.4%	3.2%	5.44	5.50	-0.3
2029	34	MLB	SEA	16	16	90	382	56	48	13	14.7%	12.6%	3.3%	5.56	5.64	-0.4
2030	35	MLB	SEA	16	16	85	360	50	46	12	14.0%	12.8%	3.4%	5.70	5.79	-0.6
2031	36	MLB	SEA	15	15	80	337	51	41	12	15.2%	12.3%	3.5%	5.69	5.68	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			197	148	856	3686	589	329	88	16.0%	8.9%	2.4%	4.08	4.19	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—			46	35	200	861	138	77	21	16.0%	8.9%	2.4%	4.08	4.19	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Dobnak (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	16.7%	12.1%	3.0%	—	5.50	15.4%	3.0%	286	+0.24	—	—	—
Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	31	SP-	4.86	12.4%	11.6%	2.4%	.328	4.86	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.00	4.54	269	66
Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP-	4.52	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.86	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.34	4.52	150	65
Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	31	SP-	4.41	15.6%	8.8%	2.8%	.283	4.16	16.6%	10.1%	91	-0.25	4.16	171	64
Andres Ivan Meza R 2025 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP-	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.351	4.35	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.21	4.14	275	63
Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	31	SP-	4.74	14.3%	12.2%	2.4%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	62
Matt Cain R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	18.1%	7.8%	4.5%	.313	5.07	13.2%	5.6%	124	+0.07	4.87	294	61
Alex Caldera R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	30	SP-	4.57	11.9%	11.1%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	120	61
Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.36 FIP	30	SP-	5.36	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	265	61
Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	31	SW	4.61	13.4%	8.9%	2.8%	.286	4.13	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.48	4.13	156	61
Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	61
Roberto Hernandez R 2029 · 4.25 FIP	34	SP-	4.25	11.8%	6.7%	2.4%	.287	4.35	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.10	4.25	171	61
Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	32	SP-	4.56	15.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.316	4.46	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.10	4.46	143	60
Lucas Harrell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP-	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.58	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.49	3.58	139	60
Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.30 FIP	33	SW	5.30	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.15	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.15	3.81	208	60
David Fletcher R 2025 · 5.65 FIP	30	SP-	5.65	7.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.65	100	60
Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	60
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	16.0%	7.6%	3.3%	.270	4.84	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.31	2.99	227	59
Francisco Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	32	SW	4.81	11.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.77	3.17	273	59
Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 5.52 FIP	31	SW	5.52	10.6%	11.0%	3.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	117	59
Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	31	SP-	4.16	13.8%	9.7%	1.8%	.307	4.46	12.6%	2.6%	145	+0.30	4.16	325	59

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.