Ray Kerr
P
FCL Braves
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION1 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 106
ERA3.94
FIP3.81
K%30.8%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%24.0%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9035.5%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT (4%)
CU (47%)
FB-8.5 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 111 | 484 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.28 | 5.14 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 111 | 484 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.08 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 10 | 92 | 410 | 95 | 50 | 1 | 28% | 2.6 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 3.82 | 3.72 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 10 | 92 | 410 | 95 | 50 | 1 | 28% | 2.6 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 0.2% | 3.82 | 2.81 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 40 | 163 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 9.6% | 20.7% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 40 | 163 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 36.8% | 9.2% | 27.6% | 1.2% | 3.18 | 1.86 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 70 | 40 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.8% | 18.4% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 5.47 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 70 | 40 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.0% | 17.7% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 5.47 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 63 | 259 | 77 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.48 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 63 | 259 | 77 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 8.9% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 3.14 | 3.20 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 3 | 36 | 162 | 49 | 12 | 9 | 16% | 1.9 | 28.6% | 7.6% | 21.1% | 6.1% | 5.20 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 3 | 36 | 162 | 49 | 12 | 9 | 16% | 1.9 | 30.2% | 7.4% | 22.8% | 5.6% | 5.20 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | ROK | FCL Braves | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 77 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.8% | 6.8% | 24.0% | 3.8% | 3.94 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.8% | 6.8% | 24.0% | 3.8% | 3.94 | 3.81 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 60 | 255 | 77 | 19 | 9 | — | — | 30.1% | 7.4% | 22.6% | 3.7% | 3.87 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 7.5% | 21.8% | 3.9% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 59 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 7.5% | 21.8% | 3.9% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 2 | 96 | 413 | 115 | 33 | 17 | 3% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.82 | 4.03 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 4 | 200 | 862 | 240 | 69 | 35 | 3% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.82 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 229 | 40 | 394 | 1713 | 382 | 205 | 46 | 17% | 1.7 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.19 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 20 | 200 | 870 | 194 | 104 | 23 | 17% | 1.7 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ray Kerr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 30.8% | 6.8% | 3.8% | — | 4.26 | 28.6% | 20.9% | 104 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.14 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 455 | 68 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 67 |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 62 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 61 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 60 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 60 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 60 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.09 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.53 | 2.48 | 420 | 59 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.47 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .269 | 4.81 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.34 | 2.37 | 296 | 57 |
| Nik Turley L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.39 | 29.2% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 313 | 57 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 56 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 55 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.18 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.35 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.17 | 2.33 | 455 | 55 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 54 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 54 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 53 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 53 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.45 | 12.1% | -0.6% | 33 | +2.37 | 1.96 | 191 | 53 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.72 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .234 | 4.93 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 207 | 53 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.74 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.09 | 27.2% | 20.5% | 162 | +0.35 | 2.22 | 487 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 29.4% | 7.4% | 1.53 | 4.09 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Shawn Kelley ('19) | 5 | 46 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 3.65 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |