Ray Kerr
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.58
FIP4.32
xFIP3.78
SIERA3.38
K%25.5%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%16.9%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL5555
CMD6565
K†6565
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9035.5%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT (4%)
CU (47%)
FB-8.5 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 25 | 25 | 111 | 484 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 4.28 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 36 | 10 | 92 | 410 | 95 | 50 | 1 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 0.4% | 3.82 | 3.63 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 36 | 1 | 40 | 163 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 30.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 53 | 0 | 49 | 226 | 70 | 40 | 5 | 28.8% | 18.4% | 2.0% | 5.47 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 58 | 0 | 63 | 259 | 77 | 23 | 7 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.48 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 19 | 3 | 36 | 162 | 49 | 12 | 9 | 28.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.20 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 42 | 11 | 5 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.32 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 28.2% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 4.22 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 36 | 11 | 5 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 26.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 228 | 39 | 393 | 1707 | 382 | 203 | 45 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 20 | 200 | 869 | 195 | 103 | 23 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ray Kerr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | — | 4.27 | 27.2% | 19.1% | 93 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.00 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 455 | 71 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 68 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 67 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 67 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.82 | 24.3% | 12.6% | 78 | +1.23 | 2.37 | 296 | 66 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 65 |
| Nik Turley L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 29.2% | 12.2% | 2.6% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 313 | 64 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 64 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.12 | 32.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | .272 | 3.79 | 24.5% | 15.3% | 90 | -1.33 | 1.69 | 277 | 62 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .312 | 3.37 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.10 | 2.32 | 455 | 62 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 62 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .364 | 2.52 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.63 | 2.07 | 363 | 60 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 60 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.02 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.9% | .234 | 4.80 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | -0.22 | 3.98 | 173 | 60 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 58 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.55 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 4.2% | .281 | 3.32 | 24.8% | 13.7% | 92 | -1.23 | 3.29 | 915 | 58 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 57 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 56 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 56 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 56 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.