Ray Kerr — OGILVIE

Ray Kerr P Atlanta Braves

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.98

FIP3.81

K%29.8%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%23.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6565

CT (4%)

CU (47%)

FB-8.5 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2018	23	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	111	484	101	43	14	100%	4.5	15.4%	10.5%	5.0%	3.7%	4.28	5.16	—
2018	23	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	111	484	101	43	14	100%	4.5	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.08	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	92	410	95	50	1	28%	2.6	17.8%	14.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.82	3.63	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	92	410	95	50	1	28%	2.6	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	0.2%	3.82	2.81	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	40	163	60	15	2	3%	1.1	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	2.3%	3.18	3.04	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	40	163	60	15	2	3%	1.1	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	1.2%	3.18	1.86	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	49	226	70	40	5	0%	0.9	28.8%	18.4%	10.3%	1.9%	5.47	4.04	+0.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	49	226	70	40	5	0%	0.9	31.0%	17.7%	13.3%	2.2%	5.47	4.01	+0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	63	259	77	23	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.3%	18.7%	2.7%	3.14	3.35	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	63	259	77	23	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.3%	18.7%	2.7%	3.14	3.35	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	63	259	77	23	7	0%	1.1	29.7%	8.9%	20.8%	2.7%	3.14	3.20	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	6.0%	5.20	4.92	-0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	27.9%	7.1%	20.8%	6.0%	5.20	4.92	-0.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	30.2%	7.4%	22.8%	5.6%	5.20	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	2	66	280	71	20	11	4%	1.5	25.4%	7.1%	18.2%	3.9%	4.66	4.03	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	15	1	23	90	22	6	4	7%	1.5	—	—	—	—	2.35	—	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	15	1	23	90	22	6	4	7%	1.5	—	—	—	—	2.35	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	ROK RAW	ATL	1	1	1	6	0	2	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2026	31	A+ RAW	ATL	3	0	4	15	6	2	0	0%	1.2	40.0%	13.3%	26.7%	0.0%	2.45	1.41	—
2026	31	AA RAW	ATL	2	0	3	12	4	0	1	0%	1.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	3.00	4.86	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	ATL	3	0	4	15	6	1	2	0%	1.3	40.0%	6.7%	33.3%	13.3%	4.50	7.89	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	ATL	6	0	11	42	6	1	1	0%	1.9	14.3%	2.4%	11.9%	2.4%	1.59	3.50	+0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	ATL	6	0	11	42	6	1	1	0%	1.9	14.3%	2.4%	11.9%	2.4%	1.59	3.50	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	ATL	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	29.8%	6.6%	23.2%	3.7%	3.98	3.81	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	ATL	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	29.8%	6.6%	23.2%	3.7%	3.98	3.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	28	111	28	7	5	—	—	25.4%	6.6%	18.8%	4.3%	2.64	0.68	+1.5
FULL	31	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	16	69	28	7	5	—	—	41.0%	10.7%	30.3%	6.9%	4.53	4.80	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	54	230	61	16	9	0%	1.0	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	3.8%	4.12	4.16	+0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	48	0	50	211	54	16	8	0%	1.0	25.5%	7.4%	18.1%	4.0%	4.32	4.45	+0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	52	220	58	15	8	0%	1.0	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	3.8%	4.12	4.16	+0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	46	0	48	203	52	15	8	0%	1.0	25.5%	7.4%	18.1%	4.0%	4.32	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		144	2	170	720	187	51	28	1%	1.2	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	3.9%	4.38	3.94	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		170	2	200	848	220	60	33	1%	1.2	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	3.9%	4.38	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		243	40	416	1797	401	206	48	16%	1.7	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	2.7%	4.01	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	19	200	865	193	99	23	16%	1.7	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	2.7%	4.01	4.14	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ray Kerr (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	29.8%	6.6%	3.7%	—	4.30	26.1%	19.0%	104	+0.49	—	—	—
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	70
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	68
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	67
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	64
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	64
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	62
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	61
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	61
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	61
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	60
Caleb Thielbar L 2018 · 2.68 FIP	31	SU	2.68	19.0%	2.4%	1.6%	.278	3.01	27.2%	20.5%	162	+0.33	2.22	505	60
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	59
Nik Turley L 2021 · 3.58 FIP	31	SU	3.58	29.2%	12.2%	2.5%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	313	58
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	58
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	58
Brett Cecil L 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	23.8%	4.7%	2.7%	.314	5.57	12.1%	-0.6%	33	+2.40	1.96	191	58
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	57
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	57
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	57
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	27.4%	6.9%	1.47	4.13
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63