Ray Kerr

P Atlanta Braves

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	58	0	63	3.14	3.20	29.7%	8.9%	1.0	K 27.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.31
2024	29	MIX2 levels	19	3	36	5.20	4.61	30.2%	7.4%	-0.0	K 28.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.89
2026	31	MIX5 levels	18	2	30	2.10	4.17	23.7%	6.1%	0.1	K 16.7% · BB 3.0% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	47	0	49	3.90	3.80	24.2%	4.1%	0.4
2028PROJ86% MLB	33	MLBATL	42	0	44	4.06	4.13	23.3%	5.1%	0.2
2029PROJ82% MLB	34	MLBATL	33	0	35	4.30	4.45	22.4%	5.9%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs82

FB Velo55

K%12

Form1.47 ERA (proj 3.90) · K 16.7% (proj 24.2%) · BB 3.0% (proj 4.1%) ▼▼ last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrady Feigl (age 33) · Jeff Ibarra (age 31) · Grant Dayton (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA3.90

FIP3.80

K%24.2%

BB%4.1%

K-BB%20.1%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p820.281

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2018	23	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	111	484	101	43	14	100%	4.5	15.4%	10.5%	5.0%	3.7%	4.28	5.16	—
2018	23	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	25	25	111	484	101	43	14	100%	4.5	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.08	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	92	410	95	50	1	28%	2.6	17.8%	14.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.82	3.63	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	92	410	95	50	1	28%	2.6	23.2%	12.2%	11.0%	0.2%	3.82	2.81	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	40	163	60	15	2	3%	1.1	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	2.3%	3.18	3.04	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	40	163	60	15	2	3%	1.1	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	1.2%	3.18	1.86	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	49	226	70	40	5	0%	0.9	28.8%	18.4%	10.3%	1.9%	5.47	4.04	+0.3
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	49	226	70	40	5	0%	0.9	31.0%	17.7%	13.3%	2.2%	5.47	4.01	+0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	63	259	77	23	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	8.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.14	3.31	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	63	259	77	23	7	0%	1.1	29.7%	8.9%	20.8%	2.7%	3.14	3.20	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	6.0%	5.20	4.89	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	28.3%	7.1%	21.2%	6.0%	5.20	4.89	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	3	36	162	49	12	9	16%	1.9	30.2%	7.4%	22.8%	5.6%	5.20	4.61	-0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	5 levels	18	2	30	114	27	7	5	11%	1.7	16.7%	3.0%	13.6%	3.0%	2.10	3.74	+0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	5 levels	18	2	30	114	27	7	5	11%	1.7	16.7%	3.0%	13.6%	3.0%	2.10	3.74	+0.3
2026	31	MIX RAW	5 levels	18	2	30	114	27	7	5	11%	1.7	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	4.4%	2.10	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	3	73	304	76	21	12	6%	1.5	25.0%	6.9%	18.1%	3.9%	4.33	4.02	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ATL	47	0	49	207	50	8	7	0%	1.0	24.2%	4.1%	20.1%	3.4%	3.90	3.80	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	48	0	51	214	50	11	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	3.6%	4.06	4.13	+0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	ATL	40	0	42	179	40	10	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	5.9%	16.6%	3.9%	4.30	4.45	+0.0
2030	35	MLB MLE	ATL	33	0	34	144	31	10	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	6.6%	14.9%	4.2%	4.58	4.78	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	42	0	44	186	43	9	7	0%	1.0	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	3.6%	4.06	4.13	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	ATL	33	0	35	148	33	9	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	5.9%	16.6%	3.9%	4.30	4.45	+0.0
2030	35	MLB CTX	ATL	25	0	26	110	24	7	5	0%	1.0	21.5%	6.6%	14.9%	4.2%	4.58	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		148	3	178	747	176	46	29	2%	1.2	23.6%	6.2%	17.4%	3.9%	4.30	4.02	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	3	200	841	198	52	33	2%	1.2	23.6%	6.2%	17.4%	3.9%	4.30	4.02	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		246	41	423	1821	400	203	48	17%	1.7	22.0%	11.1%	10.8%	2.6%	3.96	4.10	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	19	200	862	189	96	23	17%	1.7	22.0%	11.1%	10.8%	2.6%	3.96	4.10	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 14 IPFIP 5.68 → 6.64 (+0.97)K% 37.3% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.29%	—	×0.860	32.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	8.47%	÷0.968	×1.100	9.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 5.68 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 36 IPFIP 2.72 → 2.97 (+0.25)K% 29.0% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.860	24.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.052	×1.100	1.44%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 44 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.04 (+0.41)K% 32.7% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.68%	—	×0.880	28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.56%	—	×1.050	18.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.138	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 29 IPFIP 2.00 → 3.04 (+1.04)K% 37.4% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.39%	—	×0.810	30.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.892	×1.200	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 11 IPFIP 1.43 → 1.85 (+0.42)K% 35.4% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.42%	—	×0.880	31.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.050	10.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.970	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.43 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 90 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.63 (+0.77)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.770	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.41%	—	×1.150	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.25%	÷0.768	×1.250	0.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 54).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AClinton LumberKings · 111 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.16 (+1.11)K% 20.9% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.740	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.88%	—	×1.180	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.013	×1.300	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ray Kerr (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	24.2%	4.1%	3.4%	—	4.41	22.5%	16.8%	127	+0.61	—	—	—
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	64
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	64
Grant Dayton L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	32	SU	3.75	27.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.254	3.84	23.2%	13.8%	62	+0.09	1.63	277	63
Caleb Thielbar L 2019 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	25.9%	5.3%	2.7%	.337	2.71	30.2%	22.6%	143	-0.34	2.22	603	61
Ricardo Rincon L 2002 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	22.1%	4.5%	1.8%	.270	4.19	17.7%	7.4%	137	+1.39	2.72	436	61
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	57
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	57
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	55
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	55
Mike Zagurski L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	31.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.294	3.12	30.4%	21.1%	45	+0.18	2.94	120	53
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	53
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	53
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	51
George Sherrill L 2009 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	21.6%	7.1%	1.4%	.249	3.79	19.7%	10.4%	72	+0.84	2.74	323	51
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	50
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	49
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	49
Randy Flores L 2007 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	18.6%	5.9%	0.8%	.365	4.78	16.1%	6.0%	69	+2.06	2.51	250	49
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	48
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	43	23.6%	5.8%	1.45	4.21
Erik Swanson ('25)	1.3	53	25.7%	6.8%	1.66	4.20
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*