Alex Williams
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION71 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 109
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%16.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 21 | 21 | 100 | 428 | 107 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.06 | 6.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 21 | 21 | 100 | 428 | 107 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 9 | 70 | 300 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 36% | 2.8 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 9 | 70 | 300 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 36% | 2.8 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 5.04 | 3.04 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 11 | 90 | 409 | 79 | 35 | 7 | 42% | 3.5 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 4.70 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 11 | 90 | 409 | 79 | 35 | 7 | 42% | 3.5 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 4.70 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 14 | 14 | 71 | 315 | 69 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 6.06 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 137 | 594 | 115 | 57 | 19 | — | — | 19.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 5.46 | 5.03 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 19 | 112 | 474 | 82 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.50 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 84 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 57 | 336 | 1467 | 272 | 137 | 61 | 65% | 3.8 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.09 | 5.02 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 34 | 200 | 874 | 162 | 82 | 37 | 65% | 3.8 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.09 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.86 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 200 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 86 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 82 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 82 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 82 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 81 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.80 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | 4.76 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 78 | +0.96 | 3.24 | 289 | 81 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 81 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 81 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 80 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 80 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 80 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 79 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 78 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 78 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 78 |
| Scott McGregor R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 78 |
| Mike Augliera R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 114 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 1.11 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |