Alex Williams — OGILVIE

Alex Williams P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%16.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	2	2	5	15	5	0	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	2	2	5	15	5	0	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	21	21	100	428	107	35	16	100%	4.7	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	5.7%	5.06	5.80	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	21	21	100	428	107	35	16	100%	4.7	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	5.7%	5.06	5.80	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	21	21	100	428	107	35	16	100%	4.7	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	3.7%	5.06	4.09	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	5.04	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	5.04	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	27.3%	7.7%	19.7%	2.3%	5.04	3.04	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	1.5%	4.70	3.77	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	1.5%	4.70	3.77	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	19.3%	8.6%	10.8%	1.7%	4.70	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	18	84	371	85	40	13	95%	4.4	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	4.2%	5.89	5.34	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	19	18	84	371	85	40	13	95%	4.4	18.6%	11.9%	6.7%	4.2%	5.89	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	19	18	84	371	85	40	13	95%	4.4	22.9%	10.8%	12.1%	3.5%	5.89	4.45	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	16.4%	9.7%	6.8%	2.7%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	90	396	89	42	14	—	—	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	3.5%	5.82	5.31	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	81	342	58	33	9	100%	5.8	17.0%	9.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.77	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	332	64	29	10	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.54	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	75	318	61	29	10	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.66	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	299	57	28	10	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.3%	9.7%	3.2%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	30	127	21	12	3	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.5%	7.4%	2.6%	4.67	4.69	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	47	198	38	17	5	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.8%	10.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	53	224	43	20	6	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.0%	10.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.58	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	55	232	44	22	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.66	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	186	785	147	72	22	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.24	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	77	24	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		93	61	348	1523	285	148	56	66%	3.7	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.7%	5.09	4.79	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	874	163	85	32	66%	3.7	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.7%	5.09	4.79	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	16.4%	9.7%	2.7%	—	4.66	18.4%	9.3%	235	-0.12	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	86
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	83
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	83
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	81
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Alex Wimmers R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	16.6%	9.7%	1.4%	.324	3.68	21.5%	12.1%	114	-0.01	3.61	230	80
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	80
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	80
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	79
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	79
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	79
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	79
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	79
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	75	18.2%	9.2%	1.13	4.70
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41