Alex Williams
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%10.6%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 21 | 21 | 100 | 428 | 107 | 35 | 16 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 5.06 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 25 | 9 | 70 | 300 | 82 | 23 | 7 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 26 | 11 | 90 | 409 | 79 | 35 | 7 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 4.70 | 3.78 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 2 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.72 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 68 | 31 | 9 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 89 | 382 | 77 | 33 | 10 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.03 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 71 | 32 | 10 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 71 | 32 | 10 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 68 | 31 | 10 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 71 | 28 | 10 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 68 | 27 | 10 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 64 | 26 | 9 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 59 | 26 | 9 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 45 | 273 | 1192 | 225 | 106 | 42 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 4.55 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 874 | 165 | 78 | 31 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.45 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 252 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 92 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 89 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 88 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 87 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 87 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 85 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 85 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 85 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 85 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 84 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 83 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 83 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 83 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 83 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $14M | +$9M | ||