Alex Williams

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	9	70	5.04	3.04	27.3%	7.7%	—	K 20.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.25
2025	25	MIX3 levels	26	11	90	4.70	3.52	19.3%	8.6%	—	K 16.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.77
2026	26	AAMIA	20	18	86	5.78	4.44	23.1%	10.6%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	1	1	1	5.15	5.15	17.0%	11.1%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	4	4	21	5.12	5.15	17.5%	11.0%	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	4	4	27	5.16	5.22	17.7%	11.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Bryce Morrow (age 27) · Alejandro Martinez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%17.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	2	2	5	15	5	0	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	2	2	5	15	5	0	0	100%	2.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	21	21	100	428	107	35	16	100%	4.7	19.2%	9.4%	9.8%	5.7%	5.06	5.80	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	21	21	100	428	107	35	16	100%	4.7	25.0%	8.2%	16.8%	3.7%	5.06	4.09	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	5.04	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.4%	5.04	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	9	70	300	82	23	7	36%	2.8	27.3%	7.7%	19.7%	2.3%	5.04	3.04	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	1.5%	4.70	3.77	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	1.5%	4.70	3.77	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	11	90	409	79	35	7	42%	3.5	19.3%	8.6%	10.8%	1.7%	4.70	3.52	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	20	18	86	377	87	40	13	90%	4.3	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	4.1%	5.78	5.27	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	20	18	86	377	87	40	13	90%	4.3	18.7%	11.7%	7.0%	4.1%	5.78	5.27	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	20	18	86	377	87	40	13	90%	4.3	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	3.4%	5.78	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.0%	11.1%	6.0%	3.1%	5.15	5.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	56	238	42	26	8	100%	6.3	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.12	5.15	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	49	206	37	23	7	100%	6.1	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.16	5.22	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	21	89	16	10	3	100%	5.2	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.12	5.15	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	27	114	20	13	4	100%	6.8	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.16	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	48	204	36	23	7	100%	6.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.14	4.81	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	95	29	100%	6.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.14	4.81	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		94	61	350	1529	286	148	56	65%	3.7	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.7%	5.07	4.77	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	35	200	874	164	85	32	65%	3.7	18.7%	9.7%	9.0%	3.7%	5.07	4.77	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 86 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.27 (+0.88)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.100	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 67 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.42 (+0.48)K% 20.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.810	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.17%	—	×1.100	8.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.07%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 18 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.15 (+0.87)K% 17.7% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.72%	—	×0.770	13.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×1.150	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.006	×1.250	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 5 IPFIP 8.03 → 9.02 (+0.99)K% 8.3% → 7.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.33%	—	×0.860	7.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.903	×1.100	10.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 8.03 → 9.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 66 IPFIP 3.12 → 4.25 (+1.14)K% 27.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.17%	—	×0.770	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.150	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷0.935	×1.250	3.39%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 4 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.85 (+0.63)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.810	23.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.064	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 100 IPFIP 4.08 → 5.80 (+1.73)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.18%	—	×1.150	9.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷0.817	×1.250	5.72%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 5.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	17.0%	11.1%	3.1%	—	5.18	17.6%	6.6%	105	+0.03	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	80
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	80
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	77
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	76
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	76
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	17.4%	11.1%	1.24	5.14
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*