T.J. Fondtain

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+TB	32	4	61	3.38	3.88	28.4%	5.5%	—	K 21.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 5.21
2025	24	MIX2 levels	12	0	15	7.20	5.83	28.8%	8.2%	—	K 23.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 7.75
2026	25	MIX2 levels	32	0	51	5.47	4.55	18.9%	12.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.81
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	20	0	21	5.30	5.30	18.2%	11.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTB	16	0	17	5.23	5.24	18.7%	11.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTB	25	0	26	5.22	5.26	19.0%	11.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKevin Chapman (age 26) · Hector Mercado (age 26) · Mitchell Tyranski (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%18.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.69	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	5.7%	3.38	5.21	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	5.7%	3.38	5.21	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	28.4%	5.5%	22.9%	4.7%	3.38	3.88	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	10.0%	7.20	7.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	10.0%	7.20	7.75	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	28.8%	8.2%	20.5%	6.8%	7.20	5.83	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	217	41	26	6	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.2%	1.3%	4.0%	5.47	5.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	217	41	26	6	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.2%	1.3%	4.0%	5.47	5.81	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	51	217	41	26	6	0%	1.6	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.8%	5.47	4.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	20	0	21	89	16	10	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.7%	6.5%	3.4%	5.30	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	43	0	45	191	36	22	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	3.4%	5.23	5.24	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	42	0	44	185	35	21	6	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.22	5.26	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	16	0	17	72	13	8	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	3.4%	5.23	5.24	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	25	0	26	110	21	13	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.22	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	182	34	21	6	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.5%	7.3%	3.5%	5.22	4.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	98	28	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.5%	7.3%	3.5%	5.22	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		77	4	128	532	103	52	30	5%	1.7	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	5.6%	4.70	5.76	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	829	160	81	46	5%	1.7	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	5.6%	4.70	5.76	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Fondtain (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	18.2%	11.7%	3.4%	—	5.25	18.8%	7.3%	89	-0.05	—	—	—
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	89
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	87
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	85
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	84
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	83
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	83
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	82
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	81
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	81
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	81
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	80
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	80
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	80
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.31	634	80
John Grabow L 2005 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	18.9%	10.4%	2.7%	.265	4.01	19.9%	10.6%	197	-0.29	3.66	471	79
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	79
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	79
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	37	18.7%	11.6%	1.33	5.24
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*