Zane Mills

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	2	69	4.06	3.65	22.8%	9.2%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.41
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	2	55	4.75	3.43	24.4%	9.7%	—	K 19.7% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.10
2026	26	AACHC	1	1	3	9.00	7.77	23.5%	17.6%	—	K 23.5% · BB 17.6% · FIP 6.58
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	67	0	70	4.80	4.80	19.0%	10.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	25	0	26	4.80	4.83	19.3%	10.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCHC	34	0	36	4.86	4.93	19.4%	10.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRoberto Gómez (age 27) · Aaron Northcraft (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%19.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	7	0	8	28	9	0	0	0%	1.1	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	1.17	0.39	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	7	0	8	28	9	0	0	0%	1.1	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	1.17	0.75	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	144	614	104	35	13	100%	5.5	12.9%	6.6%	6.3%	2.5%	3.88	4.25	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	144	614	104	35	13	100%	5.5	16.9%	5.7%	11.2%	2.1%	3.88	3.56	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	23	18	93	414	65	25	13	78%	4.0	12.1%	6.9%	5.1%	3.6%	5.63	4.93	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	23	18	93	414	65	25	13	78%	4.0	15.7%	6.0%	9.7%	3.1%	5.63	4.33	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.06	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.06	4.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	69	294	67	27	7	6%	2.1	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.4%	4.06	3.65	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.4%	4.75	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.4%	4.75	4.10	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	2	55	238	58	23	5	6%	1.8	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.1%	4.75	3.43	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	5.9%	9.00	6.58	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	5.9%	9.00	6.58	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	1	1	3	17	4	3	1	100%	3.0	23.5%	17.6%	5.9%	5.9%	9.00	7.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	67	0	70	296	56	31	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	65	0	68	287	55	30	9	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.83	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	274	53	29	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	25	0	26	110	21	11	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.4%	8.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.83	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	29	16	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	50	27	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.84	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	88	26	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.84	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		120	49	371	1605	241	128	45	41%	3.1	15.0%	8.0%	7.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	26	200	865	130	69	24	41%	3.1	15.0%	8.0%	7.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zane Mills (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	19.0%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.88	19.3%	8.8%	133	+0.08	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	83
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	80
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	79
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	78
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	77
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.2%	10.5%	1.17	4.82
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*