Billy Sullivan
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.2%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 20 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 35 | 13 | 1 | 27.7% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 2.53 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 44 | 2 | 51 | 240 | 77 | 36 | 5 | 26.0% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 4.59 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 48 | 0 | 57 | 272 | 54 | 52 | 1 | 17.5% | 20.1% | 0.4% | 5.34 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 15 | 0 | 14 | 85 | 15 | 18 | 1 | — | — | — | 12.21 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 54 | 27 | 7 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 22.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 21.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 127 | 2 | 146 | 696 | 152 | 126 | 8 | 21.9% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 5.30 | 4.17 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 3 | 200 | 953 | 208 | 173 | 11 | 21.9% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 5.30 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Billy Sullivan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.58 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 165 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 88 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 87 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 87 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 87 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 86 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 85 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 85 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 85 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 85 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 85 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 84 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 84 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 83 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 83 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 83 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.