Billy Sullivan — OGILVIE

Billy Sullivan P Harrisburg Senators

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%20.8%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	24	99	35	13	1	0%	1.2	27.7%	13.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.66	2.53	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	24	99	35	13	1	0%	1.2	35.4%	13.1%	22.2%	1.0%	2.66	2.34	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	44	2	51	240	77	36	5	5%	1.2	26.0%	16.5%	9.5%	2.4%	4.59	4.30	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	44	2	51	240	77	36	5	5%	1.2	32.1%	15.0%	17.1%	2.1%	4.59	3.47	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	48	0	57	272	54	52	1	0%	1.2	17.1%	17.2%	-0.1%	0.4%	5.34	4.06	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	48	0	57	272	54	52	1	0%	1.2	19.9%	19.1%	0.7%	0.4%	5.34	4.16	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	85	15	18	1	0%	0.9	17.6%	21.2%	-3.5%	1.2%	12.21	4.94	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	85	15	18	1	0%	0.9	17.6%	21.2%	-3.5%	1.2%	12.21	4.94	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	14	85	15	18	1	0%	0.9	17.6%	21.2%	-3.5%	1.2%	12.21	5.74	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	10	0	9	50	11	11	2	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.2%	-6.4%	4.8%	9.00	7.30	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	10	0	9	50	11	11	2	0%	0.9	17.8%	24.2%	-6.4%	4.8%	9.00	7.30	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	10	0	9	50	11	11	2	0%	0.9	22.0%	22.0%	0.0%	4.0%	9.00	7.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.9%	3.9%	3.1%	5.57	5.57	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	18	14	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.52	5.58	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.52	5.58	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	16.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.52	5.20	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	128	32	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.52	5.20	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		137	2	155	746	160	130	10	1%	1.1	21.5%	17.5%	4.0%	1.4%	5.52	4.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	3	200	963	207	168	13	1%	1.1	21.5%	17.5%	4.0%	1.4%	5.52	4.25	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Billy Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	20.8%	16.9%	3.1%	—	5.58	20.8%	4.5%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	78
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	78
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	78
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	77
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	75
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	75
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	75
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	74
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	74
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	74
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	74
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	74
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	73