Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 4.4% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 1.53 | 1.74 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.4% | 4.4% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 1.53 | 1.12 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 41 | 2 | 72 | 302 | 68 | 26 | 2 | 5% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 2.51 | 3.47 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 41 | 2 | 72 | 302 | 68 | 26 | 2 | 5% | 1.7 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 0.7% | 2.51 | 2.65 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 67 | 276 | 78 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 6.2% | 17.1% | 1.1% | 1.60 | 2.54 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 67 | 276 | 78 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.3% | 6.2% | 22.1% | 1.1% | 1.60 | 2.12 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 5.9% | 1.93 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 23.5% | 5.9% | 1.93 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 46 | 189 | 56 | 22 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 1.3% | 3.33 | 3.00 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 1 | 46 | 189 | 56 | 22 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 11.6% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 3.33 | 2.95 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 206 | 44 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.37 | 5.72 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 206 | 44 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 4.37 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 46 | 0 | 57 | 262 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 5.49 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 46 | 0 | 57 | 262 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 5.49 | 4.60 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 29 | 116 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 3.9% | 23.6% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 29 | 116 | 38 | 4 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.8% | 3.4% | 29.3% | 4.3% | 4.08 | 3.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 13 | 0 | 17 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 1.62 | 2.90 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 72 | 297 | 75 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 25.2% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.63 | 3.89 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 6 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.81 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 0 | 115 | 481 | 114 | 53 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 839 | 199 | 93 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 275 | 3 | 355 | 1500 | 325 | 134 | 35 | 1% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 3.70 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 2 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 75 | 20 | 1% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 3.19 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kodi Whitley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.72 | 23.1% | 13.0% | 141 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 86 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 84 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 83 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 82 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 82 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 82 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 80 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 80 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.93 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.04 | 2.49 | 417 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 1.29 | 4.49 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |