Jordan Fowler prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jordan Fowler P Clearwater Threshers

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%19.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	7	1	8	34	4	1	1	14%	1.1	11.8%	2.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.38	4.09	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	7	1	8	34	4	1	1	14%	1.1	11.8%	2.9%	8.8%	2.9%	3.38	4.10	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	6	56	231	53	12	8	30%	2.8	17.0%	5.8%	11.2%	4.7%	2.56	4.98	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	6	56	231	53	12	8	30%	2.8	22.9%	5.2%	17.7%	3.5%	2.56	3.70	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	15	15	70	291	50	20	4	100%	4.7	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%	2.0%	3.73	4.08	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	15	15	70	291	50	20	4	100%	4.7	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%	2.0%	3.73	4.08	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	15	15	70	291	50	20	4	100%	4.7	17.2%	6.9%	10.3%	1.4%	3.73	3.27	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	6	21	82	16	5	2	75%	2.7	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.4%	1.69	3.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	6	21	82	16	5	2	75%	2.7	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.4%	1.69	3.56	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	6	21	82	16	5	2	75%	2.7	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	2.4%	1.69	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	48	201	40	18	6	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.56	4.59	+0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	45	192	38	17	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	43	180	36	17	6	100%	6.1	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.86	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	17	72	14	6	2	100%	5.7	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.1%	4.56	4.59	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	25	106	21	10	3	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	29	122	24	11	4	100%	5.8	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	12	71	300	59	27	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.36	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	76	28	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.3%	4.67	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		50	28	156	638	98	43	20	56%	3.1	15.3%	6.7%	8.7%	3.1%	3.01	4.34	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	36	200	820	126	55	25	56%	3.1	15.3%	6.7%	8.7%	3.1%	3.01	4.34	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Fowler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	19.7%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.71	19.9%	10.8%	136	+0.18	—	—	—
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	82
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	75
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	75
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	75
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	74
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	73
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	72
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	72
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	71
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	70
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	70
Eric Stults L 2007 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	16.8%	8.4%	2.8%	.349	4.14	16.2%	7.2%	89	-0.14	3.50	773	69
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	69
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	69
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	69
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	68
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	68
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	68
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	19.8%	8.9%	1.22	4.62
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01