Cam Sanders

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #1048Arb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	49	1	54	5.83	4.67	29.6%	17.3%	—	K 24.9% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.83
2025	28	MIX3 levels	47	0	58	2.81	3.50	27.8%	12.7%	0.7	K 25.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.50
2026	29	MIX2 levels	56	1	60	3.90	3.00	34.6%	14.1%	1.1	K 31.9% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	115	0	121	3.84	3.76	33.7%	14.3%	1.2
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBBAL	66	0	69	4.05	4.11	31.8%	14.0%	0.4
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBBAL	71	0	75	4.26	4.38	30.3%	13.9%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Ext$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%90

K%90

FB Velo71

xwOBA vs60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsArmando Rivero (age 28) · Spencer Patton (age 28) · Jake Cousins (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 88

ERA3.84

FIP3.76

K%33.7%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%19.4%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL2020

CMD5050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p9037.0%

p9030.5%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

SI (3%)

SL (39%)

CH-0.5 (13%)

FB-0.8 (49%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 2	1	0	1	6	2	3	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	50.0%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 2	1	0	1	6	2	3	0	0%	0.7	33.3%	50.0%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	10.60	—
2019	22	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	20	101	429	84	53	8	95%	4.8	14.5%	14.6%	-0.1%	2.7%	2.94	5.18	—
2019	22	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	20	101	429	84	53	8	95%	4.8	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	1.9%	2.94	4.04	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	18	18	90	386	107	44	16	100%	5.0	22.5%	12.5%	9.9%	4.7%	5.32	5.39	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	18	18	90	386	107	44	16	100%	5.0	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	4.1%	5.32	4.51	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	98	429	111	60	12	49%	2.8	22.2%	14.8%	7.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.83	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	98	429	111	60	12	49%	2.8	25.9%	14.0%	11.9%	2.8%	4.94	4.26	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	51	0	65	311	97	67	6	0%	1.3	26.8%	19.4%	7.4%	2.2%	5.15	4.50	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	51	0	65	311	97	67	6	0%	1.3	31.2%	21.5%	9.6%	1.9%	5.15	4.41	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	24.9%	16.0%	8.9%	3.3%	5.83	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	24.9%	16.0%	8.9%	3.3%	5.83	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	54	260	77	45	8	2%	1.1	29.6%	17.3%	12.3%	3.1%	5.83	4.67	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.3%	13.4%	1.8%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	25.6%	12.3%	13.4%	1.8%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	58	237	66	30	5	0%	1.2	27.8%	12.7%	15.2%	2.1%	2.81	3.50	+0.7
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	31.9%	13.4%	18.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.22	+1.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	31.9%	13.4%	18.5%	2.0%	3.90	3.22	+1.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	1	60	263	91	37	5	2%	1.1	34.6%	14.1%	20.5%	1.9%	3.90	3.00	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			34	0	36	165	44	24	3	0%	1.1	26.7%	14.5%	12.1%	1.8%	5.25	3.74	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	115	0	121	511	172	73	12	0%	1.1	33.7%	14.3%	19.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.76	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	107	0	113	476	152	67	13	0%	1.1	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.98	4.04	+0.7
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	99	0	104	440	133	61	13	0%	1.1	30.3%	13.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.31	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	66	0	69	291	93	41	8	0%	1.0	31.8%	14.0%	17.8%	2.8%	4.05	4.11	+0.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	71	0	75	317	96	44	10	0%	1.1	30.3%	13.9%	16.4%	3.1%	4.26	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	0	179	769	231	108	21	0%	1.1	30.1%	14.1%	16.0%	2.7%	4.38	3.83	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	859	258	121	23	0%	1.1	30.1%	14.1%	16.0%	2.7%	4.38	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		278	57	526	2321	539	344	68	21%	1.9	23.2%	14.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.63	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	22	200	883	205	131	26	21%	1.9	23.2%	14.8%	8.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.63	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cam Sanders (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	33.7%	14.3%	2.4%	—	4.17	31.1%	17.1%	217	+0.41	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2016 · 2.70 FIP	28	SU	2.70	32.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	125	71
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	71
Jake Cousins R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	34.2%	12.3%	3.0%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	1.11	160	67
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	67
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	66
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	65
C.C. Lee R 2017 · 3.14 FIP	30	SU	3.14	28.4%	9.6%	2.2%	.359	3.03	34.7%	25.6%	25	-0.11	2.59	149	64
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	64
Parker Markel R 2021 · 4.23 FIP	30	SU	4.23	31.3%	18.5%	2.6%	.274	4.47	25.5%	10.0%	40	+0.24	3.18	266	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	62
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	62
Jeff Brigham R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	30	SU	4.15	31.2%	11.3%	4.1%	.317	5.20	27.9%	16.5%	101	+1.05	3.48	620	62
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	410	61
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	61
Erik Goeddel R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	29	SU	3.45	28.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	193	61
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	61
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	61
Jim Henderson R 2013 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	30.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.254	4.77	23.5%	13.8%	76	+1.41	1.86	167	61
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	60
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	94	31.5%	14.2%	1.00	4.12
Rex Barney ('43-'50, 1 WAR*)	3.0	100	26.2%*	14.4%*	1.18*	4.65*
Jack Meyer ('55-'61, 2 WAR*)	2.3	76	29.4%*	12.2%*	1.09*	4.25*
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Hub Pruett ('22-'32, 1 WAR*)	3.7	106	27.6%*	12.8%*	0.76*	4.69*
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63