Justin Connell

OF Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 28 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	INTLGigantes de C…	23	.100/.182/.100	0	0	-20	—
2025	26	A+MIN	80	.231/.375/.431	2	4	74	—	.188/.300/.362
2027PROJ0% MLB	28	MLBMIN	1	.216/.295/.336	0	0	79	-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	29	MLBMIN	42	.215/.293/.334	1	1	78	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A+

ISO92

K%92

Z-Con%92

Whiff%91

Speed90

wOBA87

CompsWeston Wilson (age 28) · Jerad Head (age 27) · Cody Strait (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .295 / .336

PA1

HR0

K%26

BB%8

BABIP280

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	379	318	73	18	1	11	48	111	9	8	5	230	347	396	743	167	313	29	13	334	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	71	18	4	0	3	7	19	2	2	1	254	338	437	774	183	306	23	9	342	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	101	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	257	324	287	611	30	289	12	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	82	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	207	278	256	534	49	225	18	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	448	93	15	1	3	34	107	10	13	10	208	278	266	544	58	247	21	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	381	96	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	252	305	339	643	87	320	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	379	331	66	16	1	9	35	136	9	8	5	199	293	335	629	136	295	36	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	74	14	3	0	2	4	25	2	2	1	189	250	311	561	122	257	31	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	25	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	160	222	200	422	40	197	21	7	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	69	13	4	1	2	8	16	3	4	0	188	300	362	662	174	209	20	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	101	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	257	324	287	611	30	292	12	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	82	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	207	278	256	534	49	246	18	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	448	93	15	1	3	34	107	10	13	10	208	278	266	544	58	263	21	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	381	96	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	252	305	339	643	87	326	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	460	404	80	19	1	11	40	161	11	10	6	198	288	332	620	134	295	35	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	460	389	91	22	1	14	55	130	11	10	6	234	345	404	749	170	312	28	12	335	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	25	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	160	222	200	422	40	211	21	7	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL MLE	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL RAW	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	69	13	4	1	2	8	16	3	4	0	188	300	362	662	174	216	20	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	102	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	255	324	284	609	29	289	12	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	85	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	200	278	247	525	47	225	18	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	461	93	15	1	3	34	107	10	13	10	202	278	258	537	56	247	21	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	385	96	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	249	305	335	640	86	320	24	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	460	406	80	19	1	11	40	161	11	10	6	197	288	330	618	133	288	35	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	148	222	185	407	37	197	21	7	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	69	13	4	1	2	8	16	3	4	0	188	300	362	662	174	209	20	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	69	13	4	1	2	8	16	3	4	0	188	300	362	662	174	209	20	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	200	178	38	8	2	3	17	51	3	6	1	216	295	336	631	120	280	26	8	285	79	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	295	336	631	121	280	0	0	286	79	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	22%	194	173	38	8	2	3	16	50	3	6	1	215	293	333	627	119	279	26	8	284	78	-5	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	22%	42	37	8	2	0	1	4	11	1	1	0	215	293	334	627	119	279	26	10	284	78	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	42	37	8	2	0	1	4	11	1	1	0	216	310	351	661	135	280	26	10	284	63	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	123	31	0	15	62	170	15	15	0	215	308	347	655	133	278	26	10	284	63	-17	+3	-5	-4	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2055	1825	395	67	10	27	153	510	36	70	36	216	290	308	598	92	283	25	7	262	63	-8	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	125	21	3	9	48	161	11	22	11	217	289	310	599	94	282	25	7	262	63	-17	+2	-3	-4	+14	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Connell (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	214/293/333	119	280	2	4	25%	8%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA	28	40→42	47→55	51→55	40	207/262/334	128	287	15	17	33%	7%	68	-1.0	211/282/367	156	280	20	23	31%	9%	82	+0.0	204/282/368	164	260	22	25	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Jerad Head 2010 · AA	27	45→42	44→55	50	40	221/278/345	124	279	10	11	24%	5%	76	-0.4	229/278/381	152	281	17	7	25%	4%	84	+0.2	223/274/383	160	269	20	7	25%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Cody Strait 2010 · AA	27	45→48	44→50	51→55	41	222/265/346	123	285	11	16	26%	5%	70	-0.8	214/263/313	99	283	7	16	25%	6%	62	-1.4	168/217/243	75	229	0	24	25%	4%	26	-1.0
✕Willie Argo 2017 · AA	27	43→37	39→40	52→55	47	207/287/293	86	286	7	17	28%	9%	68	-1.0	195/250/322	127	298	13	14	37%	6%	60	-1.6	154/210/279	125	232	14	17	39%	6%	35	-1.7
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→43	47→50	54→55	46	199/282/333	135	269	14	18	30%	8%	76	-0.4	213/290/347	134	292	16	23	31%	8%	81	-0.1	204/285/336	132	277	17	26	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Reid Gorecki 2009 · AAA	28	47→50	46→50	50→55	46	233/292/354	121	287	14	21	24%	7%	83	+0.1	231/284/347	116	292	9	19	23%	6%	78	-0.3	225/278/341	116	286	8	20	23%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Jason Repko 2009 · MLB	28	47	44→50	54→55	44	226/300/347	120	295	11	19	26%	7%	84	+0.2	224/283/348	124	283	13	21	25%	6%	78	-0.3	220/276/337	117	274	14	24	24%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Miles Durham 2011 · AA	28	47→48	44→50	47→50	40	229/278/353	124	312	11	10	30%	6%	77	-0.3	205/253/306	101	302	7	12	32%	5%	57	-1.8	187/230/278	91	281	5	13	34%	5%	41	-1.5
✕Andy Burns 2019 · AAA	28	43→53	43→50	49→55	43	214/261/326	112	268	10	14	24%	6%	64	-1.3	226/297/376	150	273	18	11	23%	9%	91	+0.6	200/276/326	126	252	14	10	26%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	44→48	47→45	53→55	49	223/298/360	138	268	15	16	23%	8%	87	+0.4	228/297/350	122	280	13	24	22%	8%	84	+0.1	222/290/331	110	273	12	28	22%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Tony Thomas 2014 · AAA	28	39→47	45→50	58→55	38	200/248/329	129	271	11	17	30%	5%	60	-1.6	204/246/329	125	298	11	12	34%	5%	59	-1.6	196/236/321	125	290	11	10	35%	4%	51	-1.6
✕Daniel Carbonell 2019 · AA	28	45→53	42→50	47→55	38	220/261/329	108	290	10	11	27%	4%	65	-1.2	247/299/394	147	305	15	22	23%	6%	95	+0.9	262/314/426	164	316	17	31	22%	6%	105	+1.3
✕Anthony Norman 2011 · AA	26	42→41	46→50	54→55	48	211/290/342	131	264	13	14	24%	8%	80	-0.1	212/271/313	101	297	6	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	229/270/343	114	336	0	12	30%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Jared Oliva 2024 · MLB	28	44→49	43→45	57→65	41	217/273/337	120	286	9	24	27%	6%	72	-0.7	227/288/352	125	287	12	49	24%	6%	81	-0.1	225/290/349	124	279	13	71	23%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2022 · AA	27	43→49	40→45	52→60	43	203/276/302	99	286	6	20	29%	7%	65	-1.2	194/276/300	106	273	11	26	31%	7%	66	-1.1	168/264/269	100	238	12	31	32%	8%	53	-1.5
✕Ryan Klosterman 2009 · AA	27	43→45	41→45	51→55	45	207/273/304	97	267	8	17	25%	7%	64	-1.3	207/268/315	108	272	10	14	26%	7%	65	-1.2	205/266/312	107	272	9	15	27%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Kristopher Negrón 2014 · AAA	28	40→49	41→45	53→55	37	199/250/295	95	273	9	17	30%	5%	53	-2.1	213/265/321	108	283	10	17	27%	5%	65	-1.2	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Rafael Bautista 2021 · AAA	28	45→55	40	53→60	44	219/272/307	88	280	7	16	24%	6%	64	-1.3	215/264/314	99	271	10	9	24%	5%	63	-1.4	200/243/276	76	248	8	6	23%	3%	43	-1.2
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2013 · AAA	28	44→53	45	50→55	45	221/276/345	124	268	14	13	23%	6%	75	-0.5	217/268/339	122	262	12	12	22%	6%	70	-0.8	205/247/312	108	244	9	10	20%	4%	53	-1.4
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	40→45	43→45	49→55	41	197/268/307	111	285	12	17	34%	7%	64	-1.3	212/297/323	111	327	11	25	35%	9%	78	-0.3	201/295/302	100	316	10	32	36%	10%	71	-0.3