Matt Turner — OGILVIE

Matt Turner P Syracuse Mets

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 129

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%15.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%4.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	10	3	24	117	22	8	1	30%	2.4	12.8%	8.5%	4.2%	1.2%	6.75	3.76	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	10	3	24	117	22	8	1	30%	2.4	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.9%	6.75	2.81	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	11	3	36	150	36	8	1	27%	3.3	16.3%	6.7%	9.7%	0.9%	3.75	3.08	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	11	3	36	150	36	8	1	27%	3.3	24.0%	5.3%	18.7%	0.7%	3.75	2.13	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	9	9	43	188	29	14	3	100%	4.7	11.4%	8.8%	2.6%	2.1%	2.74	4.40	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	9	9	43	188	29	14	3	100%	4.7	15.4%	7.4%	8.0%	1.6%	2.74	3.64	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	20	86	20	8	4	100%	2.9	12.8%	11.2%	1.7%	5.7%	3.15	6.55	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	20	86	20	8	4	100%	2.9	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	4.7%	3.15	4.90	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	28	0	39	195	30	28	7	0%	1.4	11.8%	16.5%	-4.7%	4.0%	6.69	6.36	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	28	0	39	195	30	28	7	0%	1.4	15.4%	14.4%	1.0%	3.6%	6.69	6.05	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	35	161	32	21	3	0%	1.9	15.6%	14.7%	0.9%	1.0%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	35	161	32	21	3	0%	1.9	15.6%	14.7%	0.9%	1.0%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	35	161	32	21	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	13.0%	6.8%	1.9%	5.91	4.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	16.4%	10.1%	6.2%	1.5%	5.79	3.84	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	16.4%	10.1%	6.2%	1.5%	5.79	3.84	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	4	56	262	59	30	3	10%	1.4	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	1.1%	5.79	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	42	1	45	205	47	23	8	2%	1.1	18.8%	10.6%	8.3%	4.4%	4.43	5.26	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	42	1	45	205	47	23	8	2%	1.1	18.8%	10.6%	8.3%	4.4%	4.43	5.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	NYM	13	0	15	61	19	5	2	0%	1.1	31.1%	8.2%	23.0%	3.3%	2.45	3.31	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYM	29	1	30	144	28	18	6	3%	1.0	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	4.2%	5.40	5.33	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYM	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	2.5%	5.02	5.02	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	50	228	51	26	9	—	—	22.2%	11.3%	10.9%	3.8%	4.50	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	56	0	59	247	40	28	6	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.4%	4.9%	2.6%	4.97	4.99	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	54	0	57	240	40	27	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.98	5.02	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	24	0	25	106	17	12	3	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.4%	4.9%	2.6%	4.97	4.99	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	34	0	36	152	25	17	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.98	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	258	43	29	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	11.4%	5.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	141	95	23	0%	1.1	16.5%	11.4%	5.2%	2.7%	4.98	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		166	27	297	1364	202	150	34	16%	1.8	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	2.5%	4.93	4.61	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	18	200	917	136	101	23	16%	1.8	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	2.5%	4.93	4.61	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Turner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	15.5%	11.5%	2.5%	—	5.00	16.5%	5.1%	115	-0.02	—	—	—
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	85
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	84
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	84
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	83
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	83
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	81
Nolan Becker L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	13.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.313	5.41	18.9%	14.6%	13	+1.24	3.71	105	81
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	81
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	81
Rob Zastryzny L 2018 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	18.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.264	4.81	19.8%	10.8%	142	+0.50	3.34	634	81
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	81
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	80
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	80
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	80
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	80
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	16.2%	11.4%	1.02	4.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91