Matt Turner
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%9.5%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 12.8% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 6.75 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 11 | 3 | 36 | 150 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 9 | 9 | 43 | 188 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 2.74 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 7 | 7 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 12.8% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 3.15 | 6.62 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 28 | 0 | 39 | 195 | 30 | 28 | 7 | 11.8% | 16.5% | 4.1% | 6.69 | 6.43 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 18 | 0 | 35 | 161 | 32 | 21 | 3 | 15.6% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 5.91 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 41 | 4 | 56 | 262 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 41 | 176 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 26 | 257 | 1182 | 171 | 135 | 27 | 14.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 5.00 | 4.59 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 20 | 200 | 919 | 133 | 105 | 21 | 14.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 5.00 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Turner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.72 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 106 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 88 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 88 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 87 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 175 | 85 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 85 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 83 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 83 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.54 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.74 | 3.00 | 226 | 83 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 82 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 82 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.35 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.19 | 3.66 | 330 | 82 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 81 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 81 |
| Jose Meraz L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.01 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.68 | 3.70 | 110 | 81 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.40 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Daniel Gibson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 159 | 80 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 80 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.25 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.05 | 3.12 | 167 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.