Matt Turner
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 26
LHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
K%16.4%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%3.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 30% | 2.4 | 12.8% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 6.75 | 3.76 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians | 10 | 3 | 24 | 117 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 30% | 2.4 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 6.75 | 2.81 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 11 | 3 | 36 | 150 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 27% | 3.3 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 3.08 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 11 | 3 | 36 | 150 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 27% | 3.3 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 18.7% | 0.7% | 3.75 | 2.13 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 9 | 9 | 43 | 188 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.74 | 4.41 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | 9 | 9 | 43 | 188 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 15.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 2.74 | 3.64 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 12.8% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 3.15 | 6.07 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 20 | 86 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 100% | 2.9 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.15 | 4.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 28 | 0 | 39 | 195 | 30 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.8% | 16.5% | -4.7% | 3.5% | 6.69 | 6.13 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 28 | 0 | 39 | 195 | 30 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.4% | 14.4% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 6.69 | 6.05 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 35 | 161 | 32 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 15.6% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 5.91 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 35 | 161 | 32 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.9% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 5.91 | 4.19 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 4 | 56 | 262 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 10% | 1.4 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 4 | 56 | 262 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 10% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 5.79 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 1 | 28 | 125 | 31 | 12 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 4.23 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 41 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 87 | 376 | 72 | 44 | 12 | — | — | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 42 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 42 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 4.70 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 151 | 27 | 280 | 1284 | 192 | 146 | 30 | 18% | 1.9 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.94 | 4.57 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 19 | 200 | 916 | 137 | 104 | 22 | 18% | 1.9 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.94 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Turner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 16.4% | 12.8% | 2.5% | — | 5.07 | 17.2% | 4.8% | 115 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 87 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 4.6% | 144 | +0.04 | 4.44 | 188 | 85 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.01 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 49 | -0.26 | 2.69 | 221 | 85 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 84 |
| Justin Wright L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 84 |
| Sean Keselica L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 235 | 82 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.43 | 13.9% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 212 | 81 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 81 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 81 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 81 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 81 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.20 | 17.4% | 15.7% | 1.0% | .279 | 4.19 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 161 | -0.01 | 3.58 | 307 | 81 |
| Rob Zastryzny L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.44 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | 4.82 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 142 | +0.38 | 3.26 | 634 | 80 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 80 |
| Chandler Jozwiak L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.23 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 161 | 80 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 80 |
| Justin Thomas L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 13.1% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 105 | 80 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 80 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .269 | 4.43 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.79 | 330 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.9% | 12.5% | 1.02 | 5.06 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |