Nick Margevicius
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP5.52
SIERA4.99
K%20.5%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p1016.1%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
SL-1.1
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 5 | 4 | 19 | 80 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 25.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.74 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 23 | 22 | 135 | 562 | 146 | 17 | 10 | 19.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.60 | 3.19 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 29 | 24 | 126 | 550 | 95 | 31 | 26 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 10 | 7 | 41 | 170 | 36 | 12 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 8.25 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 33 | 7 | 49 | 251 | 51 | 19 | 8 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 7.53 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 21 | 12 | 69 | 296 | 49 | 18 | 11 | 14.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.82 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 17 | 14 | 74 | 318 | 70 | 18 | 7 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.70 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 50 | 21 | 9 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 46 | 21 | 9 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 15.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 39 | 20 | 9 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 35 | 20 | 8 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 32 | 19 | 8 | 13.3% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 93 | 525 | 2287 | 412 | 134 | 75 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.13 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 35 | 200 | 871 | 157 | 51 | 29 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Margevicius (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.86 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 197 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 77 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 76 |
| T.J. McFarland L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.04 | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .335 | 4.28 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 141 | +0.24 | 2.98 | 602 | 75 |
| Jason Vargas L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.25 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.61 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.36 | 4.04 | 478 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 71 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.81 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | .286 | 3.84 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -0.97 | 2.65 | 233 | 71 |
| Brian Duensing L 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 71 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 71 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 70 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 70 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 69 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.14 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 182 | 69 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 69 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 69 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.89 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 506 | 69 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 68 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 68 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 67 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.