Alec Burleson

1B St. Louis Cardinals

Age 28 L/L 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 3.169 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBSTL	595	.269/.316/.420	21	9	108	0.5
2025	26	MLBSTL	546	.290/.344/.459	18	5	126	1.3
2026	27	MLBSTL	670	.279/.345/.473	26	4	130	2.5
2027PROJ	28	MLBSTL	648	.270/.329/.447	23	6	119	1.8
2028PROJ	29	MLBSTL	648	.267/.325/.440	23	4	116	1.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBSTL	643	.263/.321/.431	22	1	113	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.169First FA2030

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$5M2029Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

xwOBA88

Avg EV77

Barrel%57

Bat Spd55

Form.253/.313/.435 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .270/.327/.454

CompsRobert Fick (age 28) · Daryle Ward (age 28) · Jay Gibbons (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 96119vR 127

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .329 / .447

PA648

HR23

SB6

K%16

BB%7

BABIP291

ISO174

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

905.5%

xAVG

830.278

POWER50

Barrel%

579.2

Avg EV

7790.9

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE40

Chase%

9022.7%

SPEED35

Sprint

1225.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%21%▼▼24% over 117 PA (60d) · proj 16%

BB%7%·8% over 117 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.182·.178 over 107 AB (60d) · proj .184

HR/BB5.6%·6.2% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 5.1%

BABIP.286·.253 over 75 BIP (60d) · proj .289

SLASH.253/.313/.435▼proj .270/.327/.454

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1253 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

302

951

—

wRC+

128

▶▶R

wOBA

262

358

▶▶R

ISO

106

177

▶▶R

BABIP

243

308

▶▶R

13.9%

13.5%

▶R

BB%

4.6%

7.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$14M	+$10M
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$10M	+$6M
2029	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$31M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	172	154	36	7	0	4	17	27	0	0	1	234	308	357	665	123	260	16	10	301	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	282	260	75	10	0	14	19	59	0	2	0	288	337	488	825	200	321	21	7	360	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	49	42	12	1	0	4	6	15	0	1	0	286	375	595	970	310	333	31	12	411	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	53	48	9	1	0	1	5	9	0	1	0	188	264	271	535	83	211	17	9	249	57	-3	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.8
2022	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	470	432	143	25	1	20	29	67	3	4	0	331	377	532	910	201	350	14	6	395	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	315	77	20	1	8	23	45	3	3	1	244	299	390	690	146	261	13	7	304	93	-3	+0	-8	-4	+8	-0.7
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	547	147	20	0	21	35	76	4	9	4	269	316	420	737	152	276	13	6	324	108	+6	+0	-7	-6	+13	0.5
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	497	144	26	2	18	39	79	3	5	1	290	344	459	803	169	312	14	7	352	126	+17	+1	-7	-10	+12	1.3
2026	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	605	169	37	1	26	55	121	6	4	0	279	345	473	818	193	310	18	8	360	130	+24	+1	-2	-12	+15	2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2211	2012	546	104	4	74	157	330	16	22	6	271	328	437	765	166	291	15	7	337	114	+37	+2	-26	-37	+48	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	172	160	34	6	0	3	12	34	0	0	1	212	267	306	574	94	248	20	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	282	266	69	8	0	11	13	74	0	2	0	259	294	414	707	154	311	26	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	49	44	10	1	0	3	4	20	0	1	0	227	292	455	746	227	293	41	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	53	48	9	1	0	1	5	9	0	1	0	188	264	271	535	83	211	17	9	252	57	-3	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.8
2022	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	470	441	128	22	1	14	20	82	3	4	0	290	325	440	765	150	318	17	4	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	318	77	19	1	9	23	45	3	3	1	242	299	393	693	151	261	13	7	306	93	-3	+0	-8	-4	+8	-0.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	549	148	19	0	23	35	76	4	9	4	270	318	430	748	160	276	13	6	329	108	+6	+0	-7	-6	+13	0.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	500	144	25	2	19	38	79	3	5	1	288	342	460	802	172	312	14	7	354	126	+17	+1	-7	-10	+12	1.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	609	169	35	1	28	51	121	6	4	0	278	339	476	816	199	310	18	8	360	130	+24	+1	-2	-12	+15	2.5
2021	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	503	470	112	15	0	17	29	128	0	3	1	238	283	379	661	140	289	25	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	503	456	123	18	0	22	42	101	0	3	1	270	331	454	785	184	300	20	8	345	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	523	489	137	23	1	15	25	91	3	5	0	280	319	423	742	143	314	17	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	523	480	152	26	1	21	34	76	3	5	0	317	366	506	872	190	337	15	7	380	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	318	77	19	1	9	23	45	3	3	1	242	299	393	693	151	256	13	7	306	93	-3	+0	-8	-4	+8	-0.7
2023	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	315	77	20	1	8	23	45	3	3	1	244	299	390	690	146	261	13	7	304	93	-3	+0	-8	-4	+8	-0.7
2024	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	549	148	19	0	23	35	76	4	9	4	270	318	430	748	160	274	13	6	329	108	+6	+0	-7	-6	+13	0.5
2024	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	547	147	20	0	21	35	76	4	9	4	269	316	420	737	152	276	13	6	324	108	+6	+0	-7	-6	+13	0.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	500	144	25	2	19	38	79	3	5	1	288	342	460	802	172	308	14	7	354	126	+17	+1	-7	-10	+12	1.3
2025	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	497	144	26	2	18	39	79	3	5	1	290	344	459	803	169	312	14	7	352	126	+17	+1	-7	-10	+12	1.3
2026	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	609	169	35	1	28	51	121	6	4	0	278	339	476	816	199	304	18	8	360	130	+24	+1	-2	-12	+15	2.5
2026	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	605	169	37	1	26	55	121	6	4	0	279	345	473	818	193	310	18	8	360	130	+24	+1	-2	-12	+15	2.5
2021	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	503	469	112	15	0	17	29	128	0	3	1	239	283	380	662	141	288	25	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	523	490	137	23	1	15	25	91	3	5	0	280	319	422	742	143	307	17	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	318	77	19	1	9	23	45	3	3	1	242	299	393	693	151	261	13	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	551	148	19	0	23	35	76	4	9	4	269	318	428	746	160	276	13	6	329	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	500	144	25	2	19	38	79	3	5	1	288	342	460	802	172	312	14	7	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	608	169	35	1	28	51	121	6	4	0	278	339	477	816	199	310	18	8	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	551	148	19	0	23	35	76	4	9	4	269	318	428	746	160	276	13	6	329	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	500	144	25	2	19	38	79	3	5	1	288	342	460	802	172	312	14	7	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	670	608	169	35	1	28	51	121	6	4	0	278	339	477	816	199	310	18	8	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	STL	100%	593	540	146	28	1	23	43	97	5	5	2	270	329	454	783	184	289	16	7	344	119	+13	+0	+0	-11	+13	1.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	STL	100%	648	591	159	32	1	23	47	106	5	6	2	270	329	447	776	177	291	16	7	341	119	+15	+0	+0	-12	+14	1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	100%	648	591	158	30	1	25	47	108	5	4	2	267	326	447	773	180	288	17	7	340	116	+13	+0	-1	-12	+14	1.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	STL	100%	643	587	155	29	1	24	46	109	5	1	1	263	322	438	760	174	285	17	7	335	113	+10	-0	-2	-11	+14	1.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	STL	100%	631	578	150	28	1	23	44	109	4	1	1	258	316	426	742	168	281	17	7	327	108	+6	-0	-3	-11	+14	0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	STL	100%	618	566	142	26	0	21	43	110	4	1	1	251	308	410	718	159	275	18	7	318	101	+1	-0	-3	-11	+13	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	100%	648	591	157	31	1	23	47	108	5	4	2	267	325	440	765	173	289	17	7	337	116	+13	+0	-1	-12	+14	1.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	STL	100%	643	587	155	31	1	22	46	109	5	1	1	263	321	431	752	168	287	17	7	332	113	+10	-0	-2	-11	+14	1.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	STL	100%	631	578	149	29	1	21	44	109	4	1	1	258	315	419	735	162	283	17	7	325	108	+6	-0	-3	-11	+14	0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	STL	100%	618	566	142	27	0	20	43	110	4	1	1	251	307	404	711	153	277	18	7	315	101	+1	-0	-3	-11	+13	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4751	4334	1149	222	7	160	337	766	34	29	11	265	323	430	753	165	288	16	7	332	110	+66	+1	-35	-83	+103	5.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	157	30	1	22	46	105	5	4	2	265	323	430	753	165	287	16	7	332	110	+9	+0	-5	-11	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6372	5848	1551	279	9	229	428	1082	42	42	14	265	320	433	753	168	289	17	7	331	110	+80	+2	-35	-94	+117	7.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	157	28	1	23	44	110	4	4	1	263	318	429	747	166	286	17	7	331	110	+10	+0	-4	-11	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gus Suhr'30-'40 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,989 PA	9.0	5,989	84	53	254*	352*	442*	-107	-40	16.4	15.9
/162	664	9	6	-11.9	-4.5	1.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	8.1	5,399	191	35	267	321	437	-96	-63	12.8	12.7
/162	664	24	4	-11.9	-7.7	1.6	pk7: 13
#2Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	7.6	5,029	200	7	272	330	465	-76	-76	11.6	11.8
/162	664	26	1	-10.0	-10.1	1.5	pk7: 12
#3Sean Casey'97-'08 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,644 PA	8.5	5,644	130	18	290*	352*	433*	-102	-82	8.5	9.4
/162	664	15	2	-12.0	-9.6	1.0	pk7: 10
#4C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	6.1	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
/162	664	31	2	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
#5Trey Mancinilast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,367 PA	5.1	3,367	126	2	262	327	445	-47	-48	6.3	6.3
/162	664	25	0	-9.2	-9.4	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Greg Walker'82-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	113	19	257*	326*	467*	-59	-36	4.1	5.0
/162	664	24	4	-12.4	-7.5	0.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alec Burleson (OGILVIE)	28	60	50	35	40	268/326/450	182	289	25	6	16%	7%	119	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Robert Fick 2002 · MLB	28	51→54	54→55	39→40	53	261/329/443	182	279	22	4	16%	9%	118	+2.6	257/319/416	159	276	17	2	14%	8%	107	+1.9	251/314/398	147	269	15	0	13%	8%	102	+1.1
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→55	52→60	37→30	46	264/308/436	172	294	20	3	18%	6%	108	+1.9	246/293/398	152	269	17	3	16%	6%	93	+0.8	255/308/437	182	267	22	0	14%	6%	109	+1.0
●Jay Gibbons 2005 · MLB	28	50→53	52→60	39→30	50	256/308/426	170	270	20	2	15%	7%	105	+1.7	263/311/450	187	274	22	2	14%	6%	112	+2.2	263/309/452	190	271	23	0	13%	6%	113	+1.5
●Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	52→61	57→60	40→45	45	273/318/473	200	307	25	5	20%	6%	120	+2.8	271/319/433	162	308	18	5	18%	6%	112	+2.2	270/318/426	156	305	18	5	18%	5%	110	+1.9
●Jacque Jones 2003 · MLB	28	56→60	54→60	41→50	46	285/328/467	182	324	22	9	20%	6%	122	+3.0	274/319/448	174	314	22	12	20%	6%	115	+2.4	257/310/445	188	286	25	12	20%	6%	112	+2.2
✕Ross Gload 2006 · MLB	30	56→57	54→55	37→40	47	288/332/473	185	315	21	3	17%	6%	125	+3.2	280/317/423	143	304	14	8	13%	5%	107	+1.9	281/316/393	112	303	8	7	10%	4%	100	+0.7
●Andrew Benintendi 2022 · MLB	28	52→62	51→55	42→50	50	263/325/426	164	305	18	10	20%	8%	112	+2.2	268/331/391	123	309	11	10	16%	8%	105	+1.7	260/324/375	115	298	11	9	16%	8%	100	+1.2
✕John Bowker 2011 · MLB	28	49→56	54→55	44→45	48	252/312/435	183	287	22	6	21%	7%	109	+2.0	252/294/408	156	296	18	6	21%	5%	96	+1.0	232/258/358	126	274	15	2	22%	3%	68	-0.7
●Craig Monroe 2005 · MLB	28	51→57	57→60	41→45	46	267/312/463	196	288	25	6	18%	6%	116	+2.5	259/304/444	185	290	22	5	19%	6%	109	+2.0	249/295/430	181	280	22	4	20%	6%	103	+1.4
●Juan Rivera 2006 · MLB	28	54→61	53→60	36→40	50	277/322/450	173	285	21	6	12%	6%	116	+2.5	277/326/465	188	284	24	3	12%	6%	121	+2.9	265/319/421	157	276	19	3	12%	7%	110	+1.8
✕Chris Carter 2011 · MLB	28	52→59	50→55	41→40	47	264/308/420	156	281	19	3	14%	6%	104	+1.6	252/295/410	158	271	19	6	15%	5%	97	+1.1	261/291/393	132	274	17	1	12%	4%	90	+0.2
●Mitch Moreland 2014 · MLB	28	45→55	55→60	42→40	48	240/298/420	180	268	23	2	21%	7%	101	+1.4	243/301/415	172	284	22	3	22%	7%	101	+1.4	236/314/439	203	266	25	1	22%	10%	112	+1.7
✕Randall Simon 2003 · MLB	28	57→58	51→55	39→30	45	287/311/440	153	283	20	2	8%	3%	110	+2.1	266/299/416	150	267	20	3	10%	4%	100	+1.3	279/321/440	161	282	22	2	10%	5%	113	+1.2
✕Tyler White 2019 · MLB	28	48→57	56→60	42→40	50	254/325/448	194	289	25	4	22%	8%	117	+2.6	239/326/388	149	296	15	4	23%	11%	103	+1.6	202/299/319	118	254	12	3	24%	12%	78	-0.2
✕Matt Adams 2017 · MLB	28	48→56	56→65	43→40	45	253/302/443	190	292	24	4	23%	6%	107	+1.9	251/301/482	231	286	33	2	25%	6%	117	+2.6	244/294/487	243	276	36	0	27%	6%	117	+1.5
✕Steve Cox 2002 · MLB	27	52→50	51→50	40	52	264/339/433	169	294	19	4	17%	8%	119	+2.7	252/323/402	150	291	16	6	19%	8%	105	+1.7	249/322/389	140	287	15	5	18%	9%	103	+1.7
●Kyle Seager 2016 · MLB	28	52→60	55→60	42→50	51	266/327/450	184	285	22	7	16%	8%	118	+2.7	258/321/459	201	278	25	4	17%	8%	118	+2.7	248/312/449	201	269	25	2	18%	7%	114	+2.5
✕Chad Pinder 2020 · MLB	28	47→57	56→60	38→45	43	247/305/435	187	299	24	3	26%	6%	107	+1.9	243/294/416	173	303	21	4	26%	6%	99	+1.2	237/276/401	164	309	20	3	29%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Colin Moran 2021 · MLB	28	52→57	53→55	40→30	47	265/321/437	172	314	21	2	23%	7%	113	+2.3	235/304/380	145	297	18	3	26%	9%	94	+0.9	222/294/344	122	283	16	1	26%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Stephen Piscotty 2019 · MLB	28	50→54	57→60	41→45	51	260/333/462	202	291	24	5	20%	8%	124	+3.1	247/308/421	174	292	22	6	23%	7%	105	+1.7	237/295/390	153	288	20	5	24%	7%	93	+0.4

Alec Burleson

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps