Tyler Dearden

LF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 29 L/R 6'2" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	26	AAMIN	105	.221/.282/.316	0	0	26	—	.173/.214/.245
2024	26	A+MIN	35	.364/.400/.455	0	0	82	—	.273/.314/.333
2025	27	AAMIN	134	.277/.353/.378	2	2	68	—	.236/.293/.325
2027PROJ2% MLB	29	MLBMIN	3	.229/.293/.353	0	0	82	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	30	MLBMIN	44	.227/.290/.348	1	1	80	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA

Whiff%92

Z-Con%84

K%81

wOBA71

wRC+60

Speed47

CompsBrett Carroll (age 29) · Ryan Cordell (age 29) · Cory Aldridge (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .293 / .353

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP294

ISO130

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	19	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	94	74	19	5	0	2	14	28	5	1	1	257	409	405	814	149	386	30	15	371	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	232	208	42	7	2	4	16	80	3	0	0	202	269	312	581	111	306	34	7	259	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Greenville Drive	—	418	352	92	20	0	24	55	114	7	1	0	261	372	523	895	261	312	27	13	389	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	316	83	16	1	8	49	103	6	0	2	263	372	396	768	133	357	27	13	345	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	248	67	12	1	7	33	70	3	0	1	270	363	411	774	141	349	24	12	347	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	105	95	21	9	0	0	7	27	1	0	0	221	282	316	597	95	300	26	7	267	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	35	33	12	3	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	364	400	455	855	91	480	23	0	385	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	119	33	4	1	2	12	24	2	2	0	277	353	378	732	101	330	18	9	330	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	80	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	163	280	237	517	75	305	43	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	214	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	145	194	220	413	75	265	48	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	369	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	201	287	409	697	209	257	37	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	332	77	13	1	6	33	126	6	0	2	232	313	331	644	99	338	34	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	63	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	243	310	344	653	100	342	30	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	105	98	17	7	0	0	4	34	1	0	0	173	214	245	458	71	249	32	4	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	35	33	9	2	0	0	0	10	2	0	0	273	314	333	648	61	410	29	0	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	29	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	236	293	325	618	89	293	23	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	80	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	163	280	237	517	75	308	43	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	94	74	19	5	0	2	14	28	5	1	1	257	409	405	814	149	386	30	15	371	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	214	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	145	194	220	413	75	283	48	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	232	208	42	7	2	4	16	80	3	0	0	202	269	312	581	111	306	34	7	259	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	369	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	201	287	409	697	209	266	37	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	—	418	352	92	20	0	24	55	114	7	1	0	261	372	523	895	261	312	27	13	389	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	332	77	13	1	6	33	126	6	0	2	232	313	331	644	99	346	34	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	316	83	16	1	8	49	103	6	0	2	263	372	396	768	133	357	27	13	345	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	63	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	243	310	344	653	100	343	30	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	248	67	12	1	7	33	70	3	0	1	270	363	411	774	141	349	24	12	347	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	131	26	9	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	198	239	267	506	69	295	32	3	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	140	128	33	12	0	0	7	35	3	0	0	258	312	352	663	94	347	25	5	296	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	29	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	236	293	325	618	89	297	23	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	119	33	4	1	2	12	24	2	2	0	277	353	378	732	101	330	18	9	330	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	81	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	160	280	235	514	74	305	43	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	217	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	143	194	217	410	74	265	48	4	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	370	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	200	287	408	696	208	257	37	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	334	77	13	1	6	33	126	6	0	2	231	313	329	642	99	338	34	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	63	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	243	310	344	653	100	342	30	8	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	132	26	9	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	197	239	265	504	68	289	32	3	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	29	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	236	293	325	618	89	293	23	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	132	26	9	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	197	239	265	504	68	289	32	3	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	29	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	236	293	325	618	89	293	23	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	2%	200	182	41	8	1	4	14	52	2	4	1	229	293	353	646	124	294	26	7	290	82	-4	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	229	293	353	646	124	294	33	0	290	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	23%	194	176	40	8	1	4	14	50	2	3	1	226	290	347	637	121	292	26	7	286	80	-5	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	23%	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	11	0	1	0	227	290	348	638	121	292	25	7	286	80	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	11	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	276	25	7	286	69	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	134	30	0	15	44	162	0	15	0	221	274	345	619	124	277	25	7	286	69	-16	+3	-7	-7	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2010	1807	381	69	6	45	147	678	33	9	6	211	282	330	613	120	306	34	7	271	69	-8	+0	-2	-4	+7	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	123	22	2	15	48	219	11	3	2	211	283	332	616	122	304	34	7	271	69	-15	+0	-4	-7	+14	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Dearden (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	227/291/350	123	294	3	2	26%	7%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Carroll 2012 · MLB	29	42→46	48→55	48→50	43	214/278/354	140	262	16	11	25%	6%	78	-0.3	205/269/338	133	269	16	10	29%	7%	72	-0.7	190/259/323	133	248	16	10	30%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Cory Aldridge 2008 · AAA	29	43→47	44→55	47→45	42	214/269/340	127	294	11	8	30%	7%	71	-0.8	229/281/383	154	301	17	5	29%	6%	86	+0.3	232/278/401	169	295	22	2	29%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Carlos Sosa 2011 · AA	29	46→51	44→45	47→40	44	228/283/343	116	298	11	7	27%	7%	76	-0.4	218/273/333	115	300	12	9	30%	7%	71	-0.8	232/278/322	89	310	10	9	27%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	45	45	48→45	40	224/274/343	119	305	12	10	30%	6%	74	-0.6	232/282/372	140	335	15	10	34%	6%	84	+0.1	228/273/371	144	333	16	6	35%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Carlos Moncrief 2017 · AAA	28	45→52	44→50	51→50	47	224/288/343	119	284	12	11	25%	8%	79	-0.2	220/277/325	105	299	9	10	28%	7%	71	-0.8	219/269/307	88	324	4	9	32%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Jack Larsen 2023 · AA	28	48	46→50	48→45	49	234/306/367	134	304	13	9	27%	9%	91	+0.7	236/315/338	102	322	9	9	27%	10%	88	+0.4	259/370/286	26	383	0	4	27%	14%	95	+0.2
✕Luis Liberato 2024 · AAA	28	45→50	48→50	47→50	47	222/291/372	150	298	15	11	30%	9%	87	+0.4	223/280/339	116	315	10	13	30%	7%	74	-0.5	216/263/303	86	315	5	12	31%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	45	227/276/368	140	272	16	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	243/293/360	117	284	12	7	18%	6%	84	+0.1	265/312/362	97	296	8	3	13%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Nate Spears 2014 · AAA	29	42→52	43→45	50	48	206/277/314	108	263	10	10	25%	8%	68	-1.0	226/282/339	113	308	10	12	28%	7%	75	-0.5	245/281/350	105	348	7	13	30%	5%	76	-0.1
✕Bligh Madris 2024 · MLB	28	44→48	46→50	47→50	47	219/287/351	132	287	13	10	28%	8%	80	-0.1	205/276/356	151	264	18	14	28%	9%	78	-0.3	191/266/344	153	237	19	13	28%	9%	69	-0.6
✕J.C. Escarra 2024 · AAA	29	44→45	44→45	52→45	45	216/287/331	115	279	11	11	26%	7%	76	-0.4	224/292/345	121	261	11	6	18%	8%	81	-0.1	220/289/338	117	255	10	3	17%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Matt Lloyd 2024 · AA	28	43→42	48→45	48→50	41	214/281/353	139	307	16	9	34%	7%	79	-0.2	214/281/334	120	287	12	12	28%	8%	74	-0.5	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Nick Gorneault 2008 · AAA	29	45→48	49→55	48→50	44	227/283/377	150	290	17	12	28%	7%	85	+0.2	205/260/338	133	270	15	11	29%	7%	68	-1.0	190/244/318	127	249	15	9	29%	6%	54	-1.4
✕George Lombard 2005 · MLB	29	47→43	47→50	55	45	236/294/376	140	296	15	17	25%	7%	88	+0.5	223/292/377	154	307	17	23	31%	8%	88	+0.5	213/285/362	149	294	17	27	32%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Sherman Johnson 2019 · AAA	29	43→49	41→45	51→50	48	207/281/310	103	276	8	12	27%	9%	69	-0.9	201/275/303	102	282	9	9	29%	9%	65	-1.2	171/260/258	86	241	8	7	30%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Rafael Alvarez 2007 · AAA	30	47	45	49→45	44	233/288/360	127	305	13	6	27%	7%	82	+0.0	233/305/339	106	325	9	9	28%	9%	84	+0.2	237/330/328	91	336	5	10	27%	12%	89	+0.2
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	219/275/348	129	297	12	16	30%	5%	75	-0.5	235/292/380	145	304	15	19	27%	5%	89	+0.5	204/273/332	127	285	13	30	31%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Tyler Colvin 2015 · MLB	29	44→53	47→60	53→45	40	219/267/361	142	294	13	9	30%	6%	75	-0.5	204/242/307	103	297	9	6	33%	5%	53	-2.1	181/204/254	73	275	4	0	35%	3%	23	-2.3
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2024 · AAA	30	38→48	48→50	46→45	42	198/260/344	146	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.9	216/277/347	131	281	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	227/285/352	125	285	12	9	24%	6%	78	-0.2