Holden Powell

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAWSH	32	0	38	4.78	4.03	26.3%	14.3%	—	K 21.3% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.81
2025	25	MIX2 levels	50	0	56	4.02	4.06	21.8%	18.3%	—	K 18.3% · BB 17.4% · FIP 4.28
2026	26	MIX2 levels	36	3	52	3.46	3.75	25.7%	12.6%	—	K 21.4% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	27	0	28	5.09	5.09	20.2%	14.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	10	0	10	5.06	5.09	20.4%	14.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDerek Eitel (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Armando Rivero (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%20.2%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	21	7	3	1	25%	1.2	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	7.71	4.71	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	21	7	3	1	25%	1.2	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	7.71	4.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	16	69	14	9	0	8%	1.3	11.5%	14.2%	-2.8%	0.0%	4.60	3.93	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	16	69	14	9	0	8%	1.3	20.3%	13.0%	7.2%	0.0%	4.60	3.04	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	30	0	36	158	35	21	1	0%	1.2	16.9%	18.4%	-1.5%	0.0%	3.47	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	30	0	36	158	35	21	1	0%	1.2	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	0.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.81	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.81	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	26.3%	14.3%	12.0%	2.3%	4.78	4.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	17.4%	0.9%	0.9%	4.02	4.28	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	17.4%	0.9%	0.9%	4.02	4.28	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	18.3%	3.6%	0.8%	4.02	4.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	230	59	29	5	8%	1.4	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	3.46	4.73	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	52	230	59	29	5	8%	1.4	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	3.46	4.73	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	52	230	59	29	5	8%	1.4	25.7%	12.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.46	3.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	27	0	28	118	24	17	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	2.7%	5.09	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	26	0	28	116	24	16	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.06	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	9	6	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.06	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	116	19	0%	1.1	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.06	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		164	5	202	905	174	145	15	3%	1.2	19.3%	16.0%	3.3%	1.7%	4.05	4.43	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	5	200	895	172	143	15	3%	1.2	19.3%	16.0%	3.3%	1.7%	4.05	4.43	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holden Powell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	20.2%	14.5%	2.7%	—	5.09	20.4%	6.3%	28	+0.00	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	89
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	89
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.3%	14.3%	1.07	5.08
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*