Michael Mercado

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIEFG #774

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	37	12	83	3.48	4.95	21.1%	12.5%	-0.4	K 18.5% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.00
2025	26	MIX2 levels	45	0	52	5.19	4.45	23.3%	12.7%	0.1	K 20.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.46
2026	27	MIX3 levels	41	2	60	4.22	4.21	21.4%	11.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	28	MLBPHI	117	0	123	4.91	5.03	20.2%	12.1%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBPHI	41	0	43	5.00	5.11	19.8%	11.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBPHI	58	0	61	5.12	5.25	19.3%	11.9%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command30FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJose Pina (age 29) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Fernando Cruz (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA4.91

FIP5.03

K%20.2%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3030

K†5050

CT (25%)

CU (15%)

CH-0.6 (5%)

FB-2.1 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	8	8	21	86	14	4	1	100%	2.7	11.1%	5.8%	5.3%	1.6%	1.69	3.80	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	8	8	21	86	14	4	1	100%	2.7	16.3%	4.7%	11.6%	1.2%	1.69	2.96	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	18	71	302	81	23	16	82%	3.2	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	6.8%	5.35	6.18	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	18	71	302	81	23	16	82%	3.2	26.8%	7.6%	19.2%	5.3%	5.35	4.73	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	24	20	103	445	115	36	17	83%	4.3	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	4.7%	4.91	5.05	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	24	20	103	445	115	36	17	83%	4.3	25.8%	8.1%	17.8%	3.8%	4.91	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	62	268	95	35	12	4%	1.2	29.8%	12.8%	17.0%	4.5%	4.79	4.67	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	2	62	268	95	35	12	4%	1.2	35.4%	13.1%	22.4%	4.5%	4.79	4.25	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.7%	3.48	5.00	-0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	3.7%	3.48	5.00	-0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	21.1%	12.5%	8.5%	3.7%	3.48	4.95	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.1%	5.19	4.46	+0.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	3.1%	5.19	4.46	+0.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	23.3%	12.7%	10.6%	2.9%	5.19	4.45	+0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	2	60	276	59	31	7	5%	1.5	18.7%	10.2%	8.6%	3.1%	4.22	4.51	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	2	60	276	59	31	7	5%	1.5	18.7%	10.2%	8.6%	3.1%	4.22	4.51	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	2	60	276	59	31	7	5%	1.5	21.4%	11.2%	10.1%	2.5%	4.22	4.21	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	2	16	84	14	13	10	25%	2.0	16.7%	15.5%	1.2%	11.9%	11.81	11.91	-1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	PHI	117	0	123	519	105	63	16	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.91	5.03	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	112	0	117	495	98	59	16	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.9%	7.9%	3.3%	5.00	5.11	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	105	0	110	465	90	55	16	0%	1.0	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.12	5.25	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	41	0	43	182	36	22	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.9%	7.9%	3.3%	5.00	5.11	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	58	0	61	258	50	31	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	11.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.12	5.25	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	2	120	522	100	65	25	2%	1.1	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	4.7%	5.97	5.68	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	3	200	872	167	108	42	2%	1.1	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	4.7%	5.97	5.68	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		229	62	451	1973	411	200	84	27%	2.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.7%	4.3%	4.49	4.96	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	27	200	875	182	89	37	27%	2.0	20.8%	10.2%	10.7%	4.3%	4.49	4.96	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	20.2%	12.1%	3.1%	—	5.18	19.6%	7.7%	227	+0.15	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	75
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	73
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	71
Jay Flaa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.20	3.59	273	70
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	68
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	68
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	68
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	67
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.49	15.9%	4.6%	79	+0.29	4.46	215	67
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	66
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	66
Jim Brower R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	28	SW	4.60	16.8%	9.8%	3.0%	.260	3.85	16.0%	7.3%	273	-0.75	3.67	571	66
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	66
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	65
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	65
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	65
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	65
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	65
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	122	19.6%	12.2%	1.45	5.30
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*