Kelly Austin

P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	36	0	51	1.95	2.61	32.2%	4.5%	—	K 23.9% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.22
2025	24	AANYY	43	0	43	2.95	3.94	19.2%	14.5%	—	K 15.5% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.47
2026	25	AANYY	43	1	57	3.61	3.80	26.6%	8.6%	—	K 21.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	67	0	70	5.29	5.29	19.0%	13.5%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBNYY	25	0	26	5.22	5.23	19.4%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBNYY	38	0	40	5.21	5.25	19.6%	13.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsArmando Rivero (age 27) · Nolan Riggs (age 25) · Justin Courtney (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%19.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	11.54	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	—	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	32.2%	4.5%	27.7%	3.0%	1.95	2.61	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.5%	4.7%	1.0%	2.95	3.94	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	26.6%	8.6%	18.0%	3.4%	3.61	3.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	67	0	70	296	56	40	9	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.5%	5.5%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	66	0	69	291	56	38	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.23	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	64	0	67	282	55	37	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.21	5.25	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYY	61	0	64	270	53	35	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	21	14	3	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.23	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	38	0	40	169	33	22	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.21	5.25	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYY	43	0	45	190	37	25	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	91	61	15	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.3%	5.23	4.90	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	110	27	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.3%	5.23	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		122	1	151	628	129	64	21	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	1	200	834	171	85	28	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelly Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	19.0%	13.5%	3.1%	—	5.27	19.5%	6.4%	200	-0.02	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.4%	13.2%	1.24	5.25
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*