Johnny Olmstead

3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AA/A+/A/INTL2 orgs615.249/.326/.398151767—.206/.269/.329
202525AAA/AAMIA505.220/.295/.362122545—.187/.243/.301
202626AAAMIA322.215/.342/.36691465—.191/.288/.309
2027PROJ10% MLB27MLBMIA16.191/.262/.2990164-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB28MLBMIA67.191/.263/.2991265-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed87
Chase%76
BB%74
Max EV66
K%47
Whiff%42
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsAdam Engel (age 27) · David Thompson (age 27) · Connor Kaiser (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .262 / .299
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%6
BABIP244
ISO113
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202323 AJupiter Hammerheads — 5852 15501 4131 41 288351442793 154359 227 348 75 — — — — — —
202323 ROKFCL Marlins — 4637 8101 583 21 216356324680 108241 1711 315 40 — — — — — —
202424 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 9687 25413 7161 32 287347460807 172319 177 354 84 — — — — — —
202424 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 397351 8417211 32729 81 239319393712 154267 188 317 57 — — — — — —
202424 AJupiter Hammerheads — 2117 5110 171 21 294368471839 176500 335 336 74 — — — — — —
202424 INTLSenadores de San Juan — 10188 21601 8193 41 239323341664 102290 198 299 89 — — — — — —
202525 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 132111 22521 16311 94 198305306611 108256 2312 275 41 — — — — — —
202525 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 373339 7715211 27624 165 227292381672 153246 177 299 47 — — — — — —
202626 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322265 57929 43748 143 215342366708 151258 2313 319 65 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202323 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 5853 13401 3171 41 245298377676 132314 295 279 75 — — — — — —
202323 ROK MLEFCL Marlins — 4639 7101 3123 21 179289282571 103184 267 227 40 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 9689 21312 5191 32 236284360644 124280 205 292 84 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 397360 701419 23909 81 194260314574 119223 236 252 57 — — — — — —
202424 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 2117 5110 191 21 294368471839 176426 435 278 74 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 132116 20421 11381 94 172250267517 95226 298 229 41 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 373348 671428 18764 165 193241313554 121216 205 237 47 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322278 53827 30898 143 191288309597 119239 289 265 65 — — — — — —
202323 A MLE2 teams — 10492 19402 6294 62 207284315600 109270 286 256 59 — — — — — —
202323 A RAW2 teams — 10489 23602 9214 62 258353393746 135309 209 333 59 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE4 teams — 615557 11521414 3414114 175 206269334603 127247 236 261 62 — — — — — —
202424 A+ RAW4 teams — 615543 13528415 4811414 175 249326398723 149285 198 320 62 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 505464 871849 291145 259 188243302545 114225 236 235 45 — — — — — —
202525 AA RAW2 teams — 505450 9920412 43935 259 220295362657 142249 189 293 45 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322278 53827 30898 143 191288309597 119247 289 265 65 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAWJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322265 57929 43748 143 215342366708 151258 2313 319 65 — — — — — —
202323 A MLE2 teams — 10493 19402 6294 62 204284312596 108257 286 256 59 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE4 teams — 615562 11521414 3414114 175 205269331600 126242 236 261 62 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 505466 871849 291145 259 187243300543 114219 236 235 45 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322281 53827 30898 143 189288306594 117239 289 265 65 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 A+ MLE4 teams — 615562 11521414 3414114 175 205269331600 126242 236 261 62 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLE2 teams — 505466 871849 291145 259 187243300543 114219 236 235 45 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 322281 53827 30898 143 189288306594 117239 289 265 65 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEMIA 10% 372336 651227 27996 124 197268313581 116253 277 263 64 -16 +1 +1 +1 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXMIA 10% 1615 2000 140 10 191262299561 109244 256 255 64 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEMIA 31% 217196 38714 16573 62 198269313582 115254 267 264 65 -9 +0 -0 +1 +5 -0.3
202828 MLB CTXMIA 31% 6761 11201 5181 21 191263299562 108245 277 256 65 -3 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6761 11201 5181 21 180254262516 82238 277 256 59 -3 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 10719010 4917510 1910 181255264519 83238 278 256 59 -27 +0 -0 +2 +14 -1.1
Career— MLE — 19181728 339631239 12647136 7322 196265314579 118242 257 255 59 -16 +1 +0 +1 +8 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 11421413 4316012 257 195264311575 116240 257 255 59 -27 +2 +1 +2 +14 -0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 322 PAwOBA .314 → .265 (−50)K% 23.0% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.98%÷1.000×1.200——27.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.04%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0189.16%
HBP% /PA2.48%—×0.940—×1.0182.38%
Singles /BIP19.37%÷1.000×0.930×1.009×1.01818.50%
Doubles /BIP4.71%÷1.000×0.830×1.009×1.0184.02%
Triples /BIP1.05%÷1.000×0.970×1.009×1.0181.04%
Home runs /BIP4.71%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0183.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .314 → .265; ISO .151 → .120; BABIP .258 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 373 PAwOBA .292 → .237 (−55)K% 16.6% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.62%÷0.995×1.220——20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.24%÷1.045×0.680—×0.9984.70%
HBP% /PA1.07%—×0.840—×0.9980.90%
Singles /BIP17.69%÷1.017×0.920×0.968×0.99815.46%
Doubles /BIP5.42%÷0.955×0.910×0.968×0.9984.98%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷0.941×0.880×0.968×0.9980.65%
Home runs /BIP3.97%÷1.103×0.800—×0.9982.88%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .292 → .237; ISO .153 → .121; BABIP .246 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 132 PAwOBA .275 → .229 (−46)K% 23.5% → 28.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.48%÷0.978×1.200——28.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.12%÷1.027×0.690—×1.0338.41%
HBP% /PA0.76%—×0.940—×1.0330.74%
Singles /BIP17.50%÷1.051×0.930×0.992×1.03315.86%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.023×0.830×0.992×1.0335.20%
Triples /BIP2.50%÷1.150×0.970×0.992×1.0332.16%
Home runs /BIP1.25%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0331.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .275 → .229; ISO .108 → .092; BABIP .256 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 397 PAwOBA .312 → .252 (−61)K% 18.1% → 22.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.14%÷1.014×1.270——22.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.06%÷0.998×0.710—×0.9885.67%
HBP% /PA2.27%—×0.790—×0.9881.77%
Singles /BIP19.35%÷1.034×0.920×0.972×0.98816.55%
Doubles /BIP6.09%÷0.962×0.810×0.972×0.9884.93%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.150×0.850×0.972×0.9880.51%
Home runs /BIP3.94%÷0.935×0.800—×0.9883.33%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .312 → .252; ISO .154 → .126; BABIP .267 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 96 PAwOBA .348 → .292 (−56)K% 16.7% → 19.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.039×1.220——19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.29%÷1.016×0.680—×1.0124.94%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.840—×1.0120.89%
Singles /BIP23.94%÷0.989×0.920×0.950×1.01221.40%
Doubles /BIP5.63%÷1.034×0.910×0.950×1.0124.77%
Triples /BIP1.41%÷0.909×0.880×0.950×1.0121.31%
Home runs /BIP4.23%÷1.064×0.800—×1.0123.21%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .292; ISO .172 → .140; BABIP .319 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 21 PAwOBA .327 → .278 (−49)K% 33.3% → 44.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷1.029×1.360——44.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.76%÷0.993×0.690—×0.9803.24%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.780—×0.9803.64%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.065×0.920—×0.98025.39%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷1.032×0.830—×0.9807.88%
Triples /BIP10.00%÷0.960×0.910—×0.9809.29%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.888×0.800—×0.9800.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .327 → .278; ISO .176 → .160; BABIP .500 → .426. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 58 PAwOBA .344 → .279 (−65)K% 22.4% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.41%÷1.039×1.360——29.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.90%÷0.996×0.690—×0.9904.73%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.780—×0.9901.33%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.985×0.920—×0.99021.34%
Doubles /BIP12.82%÷1.031×0.830—×0.99010.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910—×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷0.924×0.800—×0.9902.20%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .344 → .279; ISO .154 → .121; BABIP .359 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 46 PAwOBA .314 → .227 (−88)K% 17.4% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.39%÷0.995×1.440——25.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.87%÷0.958×0.620—×0.9656.79%
HBP% /PA6.52%—×0.720—×0.9654.53%
Singles /BIP20.69%÷0.998×0.820—×0.96516.41%
Doubles /BIP3.45%÷1.098×0.720—×0.9652.18%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷0.995×0.780—×0.9652.61%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .314 → .227; ISO .108 → .079; BABIP .241 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .