Victor Santos

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	28	25	145	4.97	4.13	20.6%	5.6%	—	K 17.2% · BB 6.0% · FIP 4.86
2024	24	AAASTL	33	8	77	5.61	4.35	18.0%	9.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.52
2026	26	MIX4 levels	17	0	23	2.74	4.01	19.8%	11.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.02
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	13	0	14	4.79	4.79	18.3%	10.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSTL	9	0	9	4.80	4.83	18.7%	10.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsZach Stewart (age 28) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%18.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	9	49	202	38	5	1	75%	4.1	12.8%	3.1%	9.7%	0.7%	2.57	2.79	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	9	49	202	38	5	1	75%	4.1	18.8%	2.5%	16.3%	0.5%	2.57	2.12	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	11	11	59	240	65	4	4	100%	5.4	18.4%	2.1%	16.3%	2.3%	3.03	3.09	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	11	11	59	240	65	4	4	100%	5.4	27.1%	1.7%	25.4%	1.7%	3.03	1.99	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	13	105	433	89	18	11	48%	3.9	15.2%	4.9%	10.3%	4.1%	4.02	4.68	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	13	105	433	89	18	11	48%	3.9	20.6%	4.2%	16.4%	2.5%	4.02	3.28	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	86	354	85	15	9	57%	3.8	19.2%	4.7%	14.4%	3.3%	2.40	3.91	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	86	354	85	15	9	57%	3.8	24.0%	4.2%	19.8%	2.5%	2.40	3.01	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	145	611	126	34	23	89%	5.2	17.2%	6.0%	11.2%	4.5%	4.97	4.86	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	145	611	126	34	23	89%	5.2	20.6%	5.6%	15.1%	3.8%	4.97	4.13	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	15.4%	8.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.61	4.52	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	15.4%	8.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.61	4.52	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	2.7%	5.61	4.35	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	0	23	96	19	11	2	0%	1.4	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	1.6%	2.74	4.02	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	0	23	96	19	11	2	0%	1.4	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	1.6%	2.74	4.02	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	0	23	96	19	11	2	0%	1.4	19.8%	11.5%	8.3%	2.1%	2.74	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	10.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	16	9	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.83	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	7	4	1	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	94	24	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.80	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		151	79	545	2270	378	127	75	52%	3.6	16.6%	5.6%	11.0%	3.3%	3.95	4.22	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	29	200	833	139	47	28	52%	3.6	16.6%	5.6%	11.0%	3.3%	3.95	4.22	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	18.3%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.83	18.7%	8.4%	20	+0.04	—	—	—
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	74
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	73
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	72
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	72
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	72
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	71
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	71
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	71