Tahnaj Thomas prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tahnaj Thomas P Altoona Curve

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%18.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	16	13	38	181	34	33	4	81%	2.4	12.8%	22.8%	-10.0%	3.1%	5.63	6.61	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	16	13	38	181	34	33	4	81%	2.4	18.8%	18.2%	0.6%	2.2%	5.63	5.27	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	8	6	20	80	27	10	2	75%	2.5	23.0%	15.6%	7.3%	3.5%	4.58	5.06	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	8	6	20	80	27	10	2	75%	2.5	33.8%	12.5%	21.3%	2.5%	4.58	3.20	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	16	16	61	281	62	35	13	100%	3.8	17.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.7%	5.19	6.04	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	16	16	61	281	62	35	13	100%	3.8	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	4.6%	5.19	5.57	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	1	51	213	52	19	4	3%	1.4	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.1%	3.02	3.81	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	37	1	51	213	52	19	4	3%	1.4	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	1.9%	3.02	3.20	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	36	1	44	196	26	29	5	3%	1.2	10.7%	16.3%	-5.5%	2.8%	4.87	5.77	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	36	1	44	196	26	29	5	3%	1.2	10.7%	16.3%	-5.5%	2.8%	4.87	5.77	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	36	1	44	196	26	29	5	3%	1.2	13.3%	14.8%	-1.5%	2.6%	4.87	5.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	12.1%	6.6%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	24	0	26	108	21	13	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.05	5.08	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.05	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	8	5	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.05	4.70	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	104	21	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.9%	7.1%	3.1%	5.05	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		113	37	214	951	152	147	31	33%	1.9	16.0%	15.4%	0.6%	3.3%	4.63	5.51	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	35	200	890	143	137	29	33%	1.9	16.0%	15.4%	0.6%	3.3%	4.63	5.51	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tahnaj Thomas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	18.7%	12.1%	3.0%	—	5.08	19.1%	7.1%	26	+0.01	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	77
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	76
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	75
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	74
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	74
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	74
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	74
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	74
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	73
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	18.9%	12.0%	1.18	5.06
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44