Joan Adon — OGILVIE

Joan Adon P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 247 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 59 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.42

K%18.3%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

SL (11%)

SI (21%)

CU (12%)

FB (58%)

CH-1.2 (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	13	0	28	117	31	9	1	0%	2.2	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	1.2%	3.54	3.45	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	13	0	28	117	31	9	1	0%	2.2	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	0.9%	3.54	2.31	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	13	0	20	101	29	13	0	0%	1.5	19.5%	16.1%	3.4%	0.0%	2.29	3.49	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	13	0	20	101	29	13	0	0%	1.5	28.7%	12.9%	15.8%	0.0%	2.29	2.13	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	22	21	105	447	90	44	8	95%	4.8	14.9%	11.6%	3.3%	2.4%	3.86	4.62	—
2019	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	22	21	105	447	90	44	8	95%	4.8	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	1.8%	3.86	3.63	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	22	110	478	131	43	9	100%	5.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.5%	4.89	3.95	+1.2
2021	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	22	110	478	131	43	9	100%	5.0	27.4%	9.0%	18.4%	1.9%	4.89	2.95	+2.7
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	499	98	62	13	100%	4.5	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	2.6%	6.14	4.57	+0.4
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	107	499	98	62	13	100%	4.5	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.6%	6.14	4.59	+0.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	139	626	128	61	18	93%	4.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.6%	2.9%	5.30	4.29	+1.0
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	139	626	128	61	18	93%	4.8	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.9%	5.30	4.26	+1.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	14	80	374	63	46	11	45%	2.6	15.0%	11.6%	3.4%	3.1%	5.54	4.99	-0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	14	80	374	63	46	11	45%	2.6	15.0%	11.6%	3.4%	3.1%	5.54	4.99	-0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	14	80	374	63	46	11	45%	2.6	16.8%	12.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.54	5.05	-0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	43	208	46	34	6	6%	1.2	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.4%	6.54	4.99	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	43	208	46	34	6	6%	1.2	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.4%	6.54	4.99	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	43	208	46	34	6	6%	1.2	22.1%	16.3%	5.8%	2.9%	6.54	5.16	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	26	132	622	118	66	19	74%	3.8	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	3.1%	6.66	4.68	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	10	10	59	249	46	33	8	100%	5.9	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	3.3%	5.43	5.42	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	56	237	42	32	8	100%	6.2	17.7%	13.6%	4.2%	3.4%	5.52	5.58	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	53	223	38	31	8	100%	5.9	17.0%	13.9%	3.2%	3.6%	5.68	5.79	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	21	89	16	12	3	100%	5.2	17.7%	13.6%	4.2%	3.4%	5.52	5.58	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	29	122	21	17	4	100%	5.8	17.0%	13.9%	3.2%	3.6%	5.68	5.79	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	34	182	832	154	95	26	79%	4.2	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	3.2%	6.38	4.72	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		48	38	200	914	169	104	29	79%	4.2	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	3.2%	6.38	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		189	110	632	2850	512	317	74	58%	3.3	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	2.6%	5.07	4.42	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	35	200	902	162	100	23	58%	3.3	17.9%	11.1%	6.8%	2.6%	5.07	4.42	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Adon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	18.3%	13.3%	3.3%	—	5.68	17.4%	3.7%	109	+0.26	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	71
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	70
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	70
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	69
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	68
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	68
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	68
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	67
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	67
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	67
Daniel Bard R 2012 · 5.69 FIP	27	SP-	5.69	13.7%	15.2%	3.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	456	66
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	66
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	66
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	60	18.3%	12.5%	1.26	6.04
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26