Joan Adon
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 247 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.38
FIP5.59
K%18.2%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP121
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (11%)
SI (21%)
CU (12%)
FB (58%)
CH-1.2 (20%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 13 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 1.2% | 3.54 | 3.45 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 13 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 0.9% | 3.54 | 2.31 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 13 | 0 | 20 | 101 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.5% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 2.29 | 3.49 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 13 | 0 | 20 | 101 | 29 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 2.29 | 2.13 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 22 | 21 | 105 | 447 | 90 | 44 | 8 | 95% | 4.8 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 4.65 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | 22 | 21 | 105 | 447 | 90 | 44 | 8 | 95% | 4.8 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 3.63 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 22 | 110 | 478 | 131 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.09 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 22 | 110 | 478 | 131 | 43 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.4% | 9.0% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 2.95 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 499 | 98 | 62 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 6.14 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 499 | 98 | 62 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 139 | 626 | 128 | 61 | 18 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 139 | 626 | 128 | 61 | 18 | 93% | 4.8 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 14 | 80 | 374 | 63 | 46 | 11 | 45% | 2.6 | 15.4% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 14 | 80 | 374 | 63 | 46 | 11 | 45% | 2.6 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.54 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 43 | 208 | 46 | 34 | 6 | 6% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 15.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.54 | 5.31 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 43 | 208 | 46 | 34 | 6 | 6% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 16.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 6.54 | 5.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 169 | 715 | 130 | 103 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 14.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.38 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 169 | 715 | 129 | 104 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.56 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 162 | 683 | 119 | 101 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.72 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 55 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.56 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 70 | 59 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.72 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 54 | 300 | 1329 | 244 | 170 | 44 | 86% | 4.8 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.10 | 4.98 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 36 | 200 | 887 | 163 | 113 | 29 | 86% | 4.8 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 6.10 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 189 | 110 | 632 | 2850 | 515 | 335 | 75 | 58% | 3.3 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.50 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 35 | 200 | 902 | 163 | 106 | 24 | 58% | 3.3 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joan Adon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 18.2% | 14.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.75 | 17.8% | 3.2% | 331 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 65 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 64 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 63 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 63 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 63 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.81 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 38 | +0.23 | 4.58 | 226 | 62 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 62 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 62 |
| Jake McCasland R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.54 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 367 | 62 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 61 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 60 |
| Jared Kollar R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.67 | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 345 | 60 |
| Deylen Miley R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 60 |
| Brett Conine R 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.92 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 319 | 60 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 59 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.47 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 205 | 58 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.63 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .341 | 5.64 | 17.0% | 3.6% | 44 | +0.01 | 4.22 | 513 | 58 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.54 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.59 | 3.16 | 593 | 58 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 58 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 167 | 17.9% | 14.5% | 1.33 | 5.55 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |