Joan Adon — OGILVIE

Joan Adon P Rochester Red Wings

+0.0 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 247 lbs AAA

ERA5.62

FIP5.07

xFIP4.58

SIERA4.52

K%19.7%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%7.4%

IP87

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

SL (11%)

SI (21%)

CU (12%)

FB (58%)

CH-1.2 (20%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	13	0	28	117	31	9	1	18.0%	9.6%	1.2%	3.54	3.45	+0.5
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	13	0	20	101	29	13	0	19.5%	16.1%	0.0%	2.29	3.49	+0.3
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	22	21	105	447	90	44	8	14.9%	11.6%	2.4%	3.86	4.61	+0.8
2021	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	22	22	110	478	131	43	9	20.5%	9.7%	2.5%	4.89	3.98	+1.7
2022	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	24	24	107	499	98	62	13	18.6%	12.7%	2.6%	6.14	4.54	+0.9
2023	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	29	27	139	626	128	61	18	18.9%	10.1%	3.0%	5.30	4.41	+1.4
2024	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	31	14	80	374	63	46	11	15.4%	13.5%	3.1%	5.54	5.21	-0.1
2025	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	35	2	43	208	46	34	6	19.8%	15.4%	3.3%	6.54	5.21	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	WSH	16	16	87	366	71	49	12	19.5%	13.4%	3.3%	5.92	5.35	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	WSH	16	16	87	369	72	50	12	19.4%	13.5%	3.3%	5.59	5.38	-0.2
2028	29	MLB	WSH	16	16	85	360	68	49	12	19.0%	13.6%	3.4%	5.51	5.45	-0.3
2029	30	MLB	WSH	15	15	83	349	64	48	12	18.4%	13.7%	3.4%	5.53	5.54	-0.4
2030	31	MLB	WSH	15	15	80	337	67	44	12	19.8%	13.0%	3.5%	5.44	5.38	-0.2
2031	32	MLB	WSH	14	14	77	323	62	42	12	19.2%	13.1%	3.6%	5.47	5.49	-0.3
2032	33	MLB	WSH	13	13	73	309	57	41	11	18.6%	13.3%	3.7%	5.56	5.62	-0.5
2033	34	MLB	WSH	13	13	70	293	52	40	11	17.8%	13.5%	3.8%	5.68	5.76	-0.6
2034	35	MLB	WSH	12	12	66	277	47	38	11	17.1%	13.7%	3.9%	5.82	5.91	-0.7
2035	36	MLB	WSH	11	11	61	258	42	36	10	16.3%	14.0%	4.0%	5.97	6.07	-0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			189	110	632	2850	515	335	74	18.1%	11.7%	2.6%	5.07	4.48	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—			60	35	200	902	163	106	23	18.1%	11.7%	2.6%	5.07	4.48	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Adon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	19.5%	13.4%	3.3%	—	5.46	19.0%	5.4%	255	+0.11	—	—	—
Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP-	4.21	24.4%	13.2%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	152	80
Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	27	SP-	5.00	22.3%	13.6%	3.8%	.325	4.04	19.1%	7.8%	91	-0.96	4.04	448	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.393	4.26	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.17	4.26	166	76
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	21.8%	13.3%	2.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	178	76
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	75
Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP-	4.23	16.1%	8.3%	2.6%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.91	3.32	252	74
Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	73
Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	14.9%	8.8%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	340	73
Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	16.9%	9.2%	3.7%	.231	3.67	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.19	3.65	424	73
Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP	26	SP-	4.72	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	175	73
Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	27	SP-	4.81	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.20	3.03	401	72
Clayton Mortensen R 2029 · 4.40 FIP	30	SP-	4.40	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.45	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.05	4.33	221	72
Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP-	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.01	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.21	3.54	200	72
David Griffin R 2026 · 5.94 FIP	27	SP-	5.94	14.5%	10.3%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	239	72
Adam Quintana R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP-	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	72
Deylen Miley R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP-	5.26	22.3%	17.5%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	72
J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.57	18.7%	8.6%	205	+0.11	4.07	530	71

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.