Luis Palacios — OGILVIE

Luis Palacios P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION97 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%13.1%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5045

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	15	4	47	197	43	15	1	27%	3.1	14.8%	9.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.70	3.44	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	15	4	47	197	43	15	1	27%	3.1	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	0.5%	2.70	2.50	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	15	4	64	228	62	4	0	27%	4.2	18.5%	2.2%	16.3%	0.0%	0.85	1.82	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	15	4	64	228	62	4	0	27%	4.2	27.2%	1.8%	25.4%	0.0%	0.85	1.34	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	10	4	40	145	42	2	2	40%	4.0	19.7%	1.7%	18.0%	1.9%	1.12	2.72	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	10	4	40	145	42	2	2	40%	4.0	29.0%	1.4%	27.6%	1.4%	1.12	1.81	—
2021	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	10	65	265	66	16	10	83%	5.4	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	5.5%	3.88	5.47	—
2021	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	10	65	265	66	16	10	83%	5.4	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	3.8%	3.88	3.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	132	535	124	16	20	91%	5.7	17.3%	2.8%	14.5%	5.0%	4.17	4.73	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	132	535	124	16	20	91%	5.7	23.2%	3.0%	20.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.56	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	144	594	110	31	29	92%	5.8	14.9%	5.7%	9.3%	5.5%	4.30	5.57	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	144	594	110	31	29	92%	5.8	14.9%	5.7%	9.3%	5.5%	4.30	5.57	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	144	594	110	31	29	92%	5.8	18.5%	5.2%	13.3%	4.9%	4.30	4.83	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	14.0%	5.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.91	4.37	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	14.0%	5.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.91	4.37	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	17.3%	5.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.91	3.85	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	1.8%	3.44	4.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	1.8%	3.44	4.26	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	1.7%	3.44	3.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	36	17	97	390	88	49	10	47%	2.7	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	3.0%	3.34	4.90	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	36	17	97	390	88	49	10	47%	2.7	18.4%	13.4%	5.0%	3.0%	3.34	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIA	29	13	72	290	60	41	8	45%	2.5	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	2.8%	3.62	4.66	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIA	7	4	25	100	28	8	2	57%	3.6	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	2.0%	2.52	2.85	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.1%	6.3%	6.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	103	415	91	51	11	—	—	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	2.6%	3.42	4.90	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	110	467	65	30	14	100%	6.9	13.9%	6.5%	7.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.75	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	107	453	65	31	14	100%	6.7	14.4%	6.8%	7.7%	3.1%	4.76	4.80	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	102	432	63	30	14	100%	6.8	14.5%	7.0%	7.5%	3.2%	4.83	4.90	0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	96	407	59	30	14	100%	6.9	14.4%	7.3%	7.0%	3.4%	4.96	5.06	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	42	177	25	12	5	100%	7.0	13.9%	6.5%	7.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.67	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	64	270	39	18	8	100%	7.1	14.4%	6.8%	7.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.72	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	72	304	44	21	9	100%	6.5	14.5%	7.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.74	4.81	0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	75	317	46	23	10	100%	6.8	14.4%	7.3%	7.0%	3.2%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	253	1070	154	74	32	100%	6.8	14.4%	7.0%	7.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.43	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	29	200	844	122	58	25	100%	6.8	14.4%	7.0%	7.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		193	116	797	3258	530	217	113	60%	4.1	16.3%	6.6%	9.6%	3.5%	3.60	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	29	200	818	133	54	28	60%	4.1	16.3%	6.6%	9.6%	3.5%	3.60	4.48	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Palacios (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	13.1%	6.3%	2.9%	—	4.81	14.3%	7.5%	320	+0.04	—	—	—
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	83
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	81
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	80
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	78
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	78
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	78
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	189	76
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	75
Nick Greenwood L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	27	SP-	4.27	9.3%	4.4%	2.5%	.321	3.71	11.2%	8.3%	112	-0.56	3.71	241	75
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	75
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	75
Ryan Kellogg L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.4%	5.8%	2.2%	.359	4.33	12.3%	7.1%	64	+0.34	3.65	446	74
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	74
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	74
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	74
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	73
Michael Velasquez L 2017 · 5.07 FIP	24	SW	5.07	10.3%	7.5%	3.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	201	73
John Anderson L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP-	4.12	11.0%	8.5%	1.6%	.316	4.23	14.3%	5.6%	115	+0.11	4.12	235	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	98	14.1%	6.8%	1.21	4.81
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Justin Nicolino ('17)	1.0	67	9.8%	6.8%	1.07	4.65