Luis Palacios
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.78
FIP4.78
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.9%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.0%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 47 | 197 | 43 | 15 | 1 | 14.8% | 9.5% | 0.7% | 2.70 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 64 | 228 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 18.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.85 | 1.82 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 10 | 4 | 40 | 145 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 19.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.12 | 2.72 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 12 | 10 | 65 | 265 | 66 | 16 | 10 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.88 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 23 | 21 | 132 | 535 | 124 | 16 | 20 | 17.3% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.17 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 23 | 144 | 594 | 110 | 31 | 29 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.30 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 24 | 125 | 543 | 94 | 29 | 15 | 14.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 33 | 9 | 84 | 361 | 64 | 37 | 6 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.44 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 4 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 102 | 431 | 73 | 38 | 13 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 110 | 457 | 83 | 40 | 14 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 77 | 39 | 13 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 79 | 39 | 13 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 78 | 38 | 13 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 75 | 37 | 13 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 97 | 408 | 71 | 37 | 13 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 67 | 36 | 13 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 374 | 63 | 35 | 12 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 59 | 34 | 12 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.16 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 61 | 30 | 12 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 55 | 29 | 11 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 161 | 99 | 708 | 2894 | 469 | 168 | 103 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.61 | 4.42 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 28 | 200 | 817 | 132 | 47 | 29 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.61 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Palacios (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.74 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 314 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 93 |
| Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.09 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.80 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.71 | 4.09 | 227 | 91 |
| Miguel Pena L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 90 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 89 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 88 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.94 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.11 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.17 | 3.24 | 298 | 88 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 88 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 109 | 88 |
| John Gast L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 87 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 87 |
| Kyle Hald L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 86 |
| Misael Siverio L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 86 |
| James Gillheeney L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 85 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 85 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 84 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.91 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .318 | 3.57 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.34 | 3.08 | 681 | 84 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.3% | .268 | 4.76 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.65 | 125 | 84 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 381 | 84 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 84 |
| Felix Doubront L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $12M | +$1M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.