Luis Palacios
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 26
LHP
6'2" / 160 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117126vR 135
ERA5.16
FIP5.16
K%13.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%3.4%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 47 | 197 | 43 | 15 | 1 | 27% | 3.1 | 14.8% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 2.70 | 3.44 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 47 | 197 | 43 | 15 | 1 | 27% | 3.1 | 21.8% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 0.5% | 2.70 | 2.50 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 64 | 228 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 27% | 4.2 | 18.5% | 2.2% | 16.3% | 0.0% | 0.85 | 1.82 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 15 | 4 | 64 | 228 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 27% | 4.2 | 27.2% | 1.8% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 0.85 | 1.34 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 10 | 4 | 40 | 145 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 4.0 | 19.7% | 1.7% | 18.0% | 1.9% | 1.12 | 2.72 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 10 | 4 | 40 | 145 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 4.0 | 29.0% | 1.4% | 27.6% | 1.4% | 1.12 | 1.81 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 12 | 10 | 65 | 265 | 66 | 16 | 10 | 83% | 5.4 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 3.88 | 5.89 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 12 | 10 | 65 | 265 | 66 | 16 | 10 | 83% | 5.4 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 3.8% | 3.88 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 132 | 535 | 124 | 16 | 20 | 91% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 2.8% | 14.5% | 5.4% | 4.17 | 4.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 132 | 535 | 124 | 16 | 20 | 91% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 3.0% | 20.2% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 3.56 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 144 | 594 | 110 | 31 | 29 | 92% | 5.8 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 4.30 | 5.47 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 23 | 144 | 594 | 110 | 31 | 29 | 92% | 5.8 | 18.5% | 5.2% | 13.3% | 4.9% | 4.30 | 4.83 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 24 | 125 | 543 | 94 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 24 | 24 | 125 | 543 | 94 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 5.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 9 | 84 | 361 | 64 | 37 | 6 | 27% | 2.5 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.44 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 9 | 84 | 361 | 64 | 37 | 6 | 27% | 2.5 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 3.44 | 3.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 8 | 64 | 254 | 54 | 35 | 9 | 32% | 2.6 | 16.2% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 3.38 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 39 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 135 | 555 | 93 | 64 | 18 | — | — | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 10 | 10 | 70 | 297 | 42 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.1% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 9 | 9 | 68 | 288 | 42 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 7.6 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 14.1% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 41 | 173 | 25 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 14.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 9 | 68 | 289 | 42 | 28 | 9 | 90% | 6.8 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.75 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 27 | 200 | 844 | 123 | 82 | 26 | 87% | 6.5 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 5.10 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 107 | 764 | 3122 | 500 | 205 | 114 | 59% | 4.2 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 3.62 | 4.58 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 28 | 200 | 817 | 131 | 54 | 30 | 59% | 4.2 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 3.62 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Palacios (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.12 | 14.4% | 4.6% | 138 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 86 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 84 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 83 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 81 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 81 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 80 |
| Matt Walker L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 79 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 77 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 77 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 76 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 76 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 75 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 125 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 75 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .316 | 4.02 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 115 | -0.01 | 4.02 | 235 | 74 |
| Michael Velasquez L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 10.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 201 | 74 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.65 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 133 | 72 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 72 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.64 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 5.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 255 | 71 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 1.13 | 5.12 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |