Ronel Blanco — OGILVIE

Ronel Blanco P Houston Astros

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 265 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.21

FIP4.58

K%22.0%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

SL+5.7 (31%)

CH+0.9 (13%)

CU (20%)

FB-4.4 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	14	8	51	204	59	18	1	57%	3.6	19.7%	11.0%	8.6%	0.7%	2.13	3.21	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	14	8	51	204	59	18	1	57%	3.6	28.9%	8.8%	20.1%	0.5%	2.13	2.09	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	11	88	396	79	47	7	48%	3.8	14.7%	14.2%	0.5%	1.8%	3.38	4.62	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	11	88	396	79	47	7	48%	3.8	19.9%	11.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.38	3.94	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	57	241	71	29	4	0%	1.8	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	1.9%	3.65	3.94	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	57	241	71	29	4	0%	1.8	29.5%	12.0%	17.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.05	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	44	198	53	24	7	0%	1.6	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	4.1%	5.11	5.08	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	44	198	53	24	7	0%	1.6	26.8%	12.1%	14.6%	3.5%	5.11	4.40	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	42	0	45	180	57	13	7	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	4.6%	3.40	4.22	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Skeeters	42	0	45	180	57	13	7	0%	1.1	31.7%	7.2%	24.4%	3.9%	3.40	3.46	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	51	217	65	23	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.8%	16.8%	5.2%	4.06	4.98	-0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	51	217	65	23	9	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.6%	19.4%	4.1%	4.06	4.20	+0.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	125	528	133	65	22	62%	3.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	4.7%	4.02	5.22	-0.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	125	528	133	65	22	62%	3.9	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	4.7%	4.02	5.22	-0.5
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	125	528	133	65	22	62%	3.9	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	4.2%	4.02	4.82	+0.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.14	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.14	+1.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.04	+1.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.6%	4.10	4.32	+0.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.6%	4.10	4.32	+0.3
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.5%	4.10	4.24	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	50	301	1251	296	135	49	72%	4.4	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	3.9%	3.73	4.59	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	11	52	222	46	25	11	85%	4.0	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	5.8%	5.92	6.19	-0.7
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	13	11	52	222	46	25	11	85%	4.0	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	5.8%	5.92	6.19	-0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	ROK RAW	HOU	1	1	3	11	5	1	0	100%	3.0	45.5%	9.1%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.41	—
2026	32	AA RAW	HOU	2	2	8	31	6	3	1	100%	3.9	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.2%	2.35	4.46	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	HOU	4	3	14	62	12	6	3	75%	3.4	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	4.8%	7.90	5.35	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	HOU	6	5	27	118	23	15	7	83%	4.5	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	5.9%	6.59	6.32	-0.4
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	HOU	6	5	27	118	23	15	7	83%	4.5	19.5%	12.7%	6.8%	5.9%	6.59	6.32	-0.4
ROS	32	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.2	22.0%	10.7%	11.3%	3.6%	4.21	4.58	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	HOU	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	22.0%	10.7%	11.3%	3.6%	4.21	4.58	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	59	252	53	28	12	—	—	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	4.8%	5.71	5.99	-0.9
FULL	32	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	35	146	53	28	12	—	—	36.1%	19.4%	16.8%	8.3%	9.74	7.06	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	HOU	75	0	78	331	79	35	14	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	4.2%	4.98	5.13	-0.5
2028	34	MLB MLE	HOU	68	0	71	301	70	34	14	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	4.5%	5.25	5.44	-0.7
2027	33	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	74	312	75	33	13	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.7%	13.3%	4.2%	4.98	5.13	-0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	HOU	62	0	65	274	63	31	12	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	4.5%	5.25	5.44	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		203	52	448	1868	441	203	76	26%	2.2	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	4.1%	4.17	4.70	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		91	23	200	835	197	91	34	25%	2.2	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	4.1%	4.17	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		274	88	728	3061	683	349	108	32%	2.7	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.5%	3.67	4.60	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	24	200	841	188	96	30	32%	2.7	22.3%	11.4%	10.9%	3.5%	3.67	4.60	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ronel Blanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.2%	10.5%	3.5%	—	5.28	23.6%	12.6%	150	+0.59	—	—	—
Collin McHugh R 2019 · 4.25 FIP	32	SW	4.25	25.9%	9.5%	3.9%	.259	2.09	28.8%	24.3%	133	-2.16	1.77	806	72
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	62
Trevor Cahill R 2020 · 3.98 FIP	32	SP-	3.98	29.2%	13.2%	3.1%	.224	4.92	17.9%	5.4%	56	+0.94	3.37	556	61
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	60
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	60
Casey Coleman R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SW	5.06	18.4%	9.0%	4.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	306	58
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	57
Hector Velázquez R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	32	SU	3.81	19.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	536	56
Garrett Richards R 2020 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP-	4.05	21.6%	8.0%	3.2%	.280	4.16	18.8%	9.8%	179	+0.11	2.31	577	56
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	56
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	56
Junichi Tazawa R 2018 · 5.14 FIP	32	SU	5.14	20.4%	10.1%	4.5%	.362	4.16	17.0%	8.6%	21	-0.98	2.94	227	55
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	55
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	55
Marcus Walden R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	19.3%	8.7%	3.5%	.349	4.47	15.0%	6.2%	131	-0.01	3.05	479	55
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.68	17.2%	12.9%	474	+0.06	2.94	1,134	55
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	54
Alex Wilson R 2019 · 5.06 FIP	32	SU	5.06	19.4%	6.0%	5.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	326	54
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	54
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	78	23.8%	10.8%	1.57	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50