Ronel Blanco
P
Houston Astros
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 265 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.10
FIP4.58
xFIP4.40
SIERA4.32
K%24.1%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%14.0%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p9032.0%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p840.279
SL+5.7 (31%)
CH+0.9 (13%)
CU (20%)
FB-4.4 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 14 | 8 | 51 | 204 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 0.7% | 2.13 | 3.21 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | 23 | 11 | 88 | 396 | 79 | 47 | 7 | 14.7% | 14.2% | 1.8% | 3.38 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 32 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 71 | 29 | 4 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 0 | 44 | 198 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 42 | 0 | 45 | 180 | 57 | 13 | 7 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.40 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 51 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 65 | 23 | 9 | 27.6% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 4.06 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 20 | 125 | 528 | 133 | 65 | 22 | 23.3% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 4.02 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 29 | 167 | 676 | 166 | 68 | 22 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 2.80 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 9 | 9 | 48 | 199 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.10 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.07 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 82 | 31 | 11 | 25.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.31 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 71 | 28 | 10 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 60 | 25 | 9 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 261 | 77 | 676 | 2839 | 646 | 329 | 94 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 4.47 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 23 | 200 | 840 | 191 | 97 | 28 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ronel Blanco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.61 | 25.0% | 15.1% | 202 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 68 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 67 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 66 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 66 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 66 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 65 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 65 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 65 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 65 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 64 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 64 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 64 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 63 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 63 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 63 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.58 | 28.0% | 21.3% | 157 | -0.73 | 2.52 | 417 | 63 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.13 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | .259 | 2.03 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -2.10 | 1.78 | 806 | 63 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 62 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.