Ronel Blanco

P Houston Astros

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 265 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBHOU	30	29	167	2.80	4.04	24.6%	10.1%	2.7
2025	31	MLBHOU	9	9	48	4.10	4.24	24.1%	10.1%	0.7
2026	32	MIX4 levels	15	11	58	6.05	5.57	21.1%	10.5%	-0.1	K 19.2% · BB 10.4% · FIP 6.16
2027PROJ	33	MLBHOU	31	0	33	4.64	5.17	22.2%	10.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBHOU	51	0	54	4.98	5.21	23.3%	10.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBHOU	39	0	41	5.32	5.54	22.4%	10.8%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%37

FB Velo34

xwOBA vs29

Form6.08 ERA (proj 4.64) · K 16.7% (proj 22.2%) · BB 9.8% (proj 10.5%) ▼ last 90d · 24 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Angel Sánchez (age 33) · Rafael Betancourt (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA4.64

FIP5.17

K%22.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	14	8	51	204	59	18	1	57%	3.6	19.7%	11.0%	8.6%	0.7%	2.13	3.21	—
2016	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	14	8	51	204	59	18	1	57%	3.6	28.9%	8.8%	20.1%	0.5%	2.13	2.09	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	11	88	396	79	47	7	48%	3.8	14.7%	14.2%	0.5%	1.8%	3.38	4.62	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	11	88	396	79	47	7	48%	3.8	19.9%	11.9%	8.1%	1.8%	3.38	3.94	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	57	241	71	29	4	0%	1.8	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	1.9%	3.65	3.94	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	57	241	71	29	4	0%	1.8	29.5%	12.0%	17.4%	1.7%	3.65	3.05	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	44	198	53	24	7	0%	1.6	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	4.1%	5.11	5.08	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	44	198	53	24	7	0%	1.6	26.8%	12.1%	14.6%	3.5%	5.11	4.40	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	42	0	45	180	57	13	7	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	4.6%	3.40	4.22	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Skeeters	42	0	45	180	57	13	7	0%	1.1	31.7%	7.2%	24.4%	3.9%	3.40	3.46	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	51	217	65	23	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.8%	16.8%	5.2%	4.06	4.98	-0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	51	217	65	23	9	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.6%	19.4%	4.1%	4.06	4.20	+0.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	125	528	133	65	22	62%	3.9	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	4.7%	4.02	5.18	+0.3
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	125	528	133	65	22	62%	3.9	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	4.2%	4.02	4.82	+0.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.14	+2.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.14	+2.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	30	29	167	676	166	68	22	97%	5.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.3%	2.80	4.04	+2.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.6%	4.10	4.32	+0.6
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.6%	4.10	4.32	+0.6
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	9	9	48	199	48	20	7	100%	5.4	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	3.5%	4.10	4.24	+0.7
2026	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	58	247	52	26	13	73%	3.9	19.2%	10.4%	8.7%	6.1%	6.05	6.16	-0.5
2026	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	58	247	52	26	13	73%	3.9	19.2%	10.4%	8.7%	6.1%	6.05	6.16	-0.5
2026	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	11	58	247	52	26	13	73%	3.9	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	5.3%	6.05	5.57	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	50	308	1276	302	136	51	70%	4.3	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	4.0%	3.80	4.62	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	HOU	31	0	33	139	31	15	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.5%	11.7%	4.1%	4.64	5.17	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	HOU	54	0	57	239	56	24	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	4.4%	4.98	5.21	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	46	192	43	21	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	4.7%	5.32	5.54	-0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	HOU	51	0	54	228	53	23	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.2%	13.1%	4.4%	4.98	5.21	-0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	HOU	39	0	41	173	39	19	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	4.7%	5.32	5.54	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	50	403	1678	394	178	69	31%	2.5	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	4.1%	4.12	4.72	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		80	25	200	833	196	88	34	31%	2.5	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	4.1%	4.12	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		276	88	734	3086	692	349	110	32%	2.7	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	3.6%	3.70	4.60	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	24	200	840	188	95	30	32%	2.7	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	3.6%	3.70	4.60	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 14 IPFIP 5.35 → 5.72 (+0.37)K% 19.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.860	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.84%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.35 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 8 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.25 (+0.79)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.35%	—	×0.810	15.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.100	10.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 73 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.78 (+0.58)K% 26.8% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.82%	—	×0.860	23.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.25%	—	×0.900	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.896	×1.100	4.06%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 45 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.98 (+0.86)K% 31.4% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.35%	—	×0.880	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.27%	—	×1.050	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.32%	÷0.917	×1.100	5.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 45 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.22 (+0.74)K% 31.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.880	27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×1.050	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷0.935	×1.100	4.57%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 27 IPFIP 6.04 → 6.85 (+0.81)K% 22.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.13%	—	×0.880	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×1.050	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	5.74%	÷0.948	×1.100	6.66%

Result: FIP 6.04 → 6.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 17 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.23 (+0.68)K% 34.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.21%	—	×0.810	27.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.067	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 36 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.56 (+0.90)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.47%	—	×0.770	21.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.962	×1.250	0.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ronel Blanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.1%	—	5.36	22.9%	12.4%	102	+0.19	—	—	—
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	62
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	59
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	56
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	55
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	55
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	55
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	55
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	55
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	246	54
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	54
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	54
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	54
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	54
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	53
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	53
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	53
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	53
Jhan Mariñez R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	17.4%	11.4%	4.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	53
Hideki Irabu R 2002 · 5.69 FIP	33	SU	5.69	14.7%	6.9%	5.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	514	53
Joel Peralta R 2009 · 4.03 FIP	33	SU	4.03	19.5%	8.8%	2.6%	.308	3.08	27.3%	22.3%	184	-0.95	2.70	648	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	23.4%	10.6%	1.60	4.17
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Chasen Shreve ('24)	1.8	45	25.2%	10.8%	1.54	3.96
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51
Sid Monge ('75-'84, 4 WAR*)	3.8	76	22.1%*	10.8%*	1.34*	3.97*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*