Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 9 | 9 | 32 | 131 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 9.9% | 9.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.13 | 4.06 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 9 | 9 | 32 | 131 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 14.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 0.8% | 3.13 | 3.26 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 12 | 41 | 209 | 32 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.4 | 10.4% | 12.0% | -1.6% | 2.0% | 7.84 | 4.84 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 12 | 12 | 41 | 209 | 32 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.4 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 7.84 | 3.95 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 71 | 302 | 80 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 3.90 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 71 | 302 | 80 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.5% | 7.3% | 19.2% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 3.24 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 22 | 21 | 91 | 401 | 88 | 41 | 13 | 95% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.25 | 5.41 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 22 | 21 | 91 | 401 | 88 | 41 | 13 | 95% | 4.1 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 6.25 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 81 | 374 | 103 | 47 | 10 | 8% | 2.1 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.39 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 81 | 374 | 103 | 47 | 10 | 8% | 2.1 | 27.5% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 5.22 | 3.90 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 3 | 78 | 342 | 84 | 31 | 6 | 7% | 1.8 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 3.82 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 3 | 78 | 342 | 84 | 31 | 6 | 7% | 1.8 | 24.6% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.82 | 3.14 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 41 | 3 | 82 | 352 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 7% | 2.0 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 3.61 | 4.43 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 41 | 3 | 82 | 352 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 7% | 2.0 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.61 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 47 | 0 | 51 | 230 | 55 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 4.94 | 3.74 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 47 | 0 | 51 | 230 | 55 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 4.94 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 54 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 52 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 263 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 53 | 222 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.59 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 160 | 95 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 229 | 68 | 526 | 2341 | 433 | 254 | 61 | 30% | 2.3 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 26 | 200 | 890 | 164 | 96 | 23 | 30% | 2.3 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis MacGregor (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.96 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 128 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 82 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 81 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 81 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 79 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 77 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 77 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 77 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.22 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.3% | .349 | 4.18 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.04 | 2.86 | 306 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 77 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 77 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.11 | 14.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | .250 | 5.81 | 16.3% | 3.1% | 79 | +0.70 | 4.49 | 215 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 76 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 76 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 76 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 76 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 76 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 1.10 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |