Blake Rivera prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Blake Rivera P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%22.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	75	328	87	41	3	94%	4.2	20.3%	14.5%	5.8%	1.1%	4.32	3.85	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	75	328	87	41	3	94%	4.2	26.5%	12.5%	14.0%	0.9%	4.32	2.94	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	24	109	31	8	3	40%	2.4	19.2%	8.5%	10.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.47	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	24	109	31	8	3	40%	2.4	28.4%	7.3%	21.1%	2.8%	4.81	3.14	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	1	47	195	48	22	2	4%	1.7	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	1.3%	2.70	3.72	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	1	47	195	48	22	2	4%	1.7	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	1.0%	2.70	3.01	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	19.4%	1.5%	1.8%	4.93	4.78	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	19.4%	1.5%	1.8%	4.93	4.78	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	37	0	46	221	57	39	3	0%	1.2	25.8%	17.6%	8.1%	1.4%	4.93	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	13.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SF	24	0	26	109	24	15	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.00	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	124	25	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		93	22	192	853	173	124	14	24%	2.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	1.7%	4.13	4.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	23	200	890	180	129	15	24%	2.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	1.7%	4.13	4.14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	22.4%	13.7%	2.9%	—	5.00	22.3%	8.8%	26	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	74
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	73
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	73
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	73
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	73
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	72
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	72
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.3%	13.5%	1.17	4.94
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76