Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 99 | 449 | 86 | 46 | 8 | 96% | 4.3 | 15.7% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 4.43 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 99 | 449 | 86 | 46 | 8 | 96% | 4.3 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 3.81 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 47 | 10 | 108 | 457 | 73 | 38 | 9 | 21% | 2.3 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 3.89 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 47 | 10 | 108 | 457 | 73 | 38 | 9 | 21% | 2.3 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 3.89 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 78 | 340 | 57 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 4.52 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 78 | 340 | 57 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 4.52 | 3.87 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 103 | 61 | 8 | 70% | 4.2 | 17.5% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 3.60 | 3.72 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 103 | 61 | 8 | 70% | 4.2 | 17.6% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 3.60 | 3.69 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 163 | 715 | 111 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.51 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 163 | 715 | 111 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 72 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.0% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 3.83 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 281 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 167 | 704 | 120 | 51 | 17 | — | — | 17.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | STL | — | — | 167 | 704 | 120 | 51 | 17 | — | — | 17.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 3.91 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 159 | 673 | 113 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 152 | 643 | 104 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 112 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 152 | 642 | 104 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 141 | 938 | 4003 | 657 | 337 | 96 | 57% | 3.8 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 4.09 | +14.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 30 | 200 | 853 | 140 | 72 | 20 | 57% | 3.8 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 219 | 104 | 685 | 2968 | 477 | 274 | 65 | 47% | 3.1 | 16.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 30 | 200 | 866 | 139 | 80 | 19 | 47% | 3.1 | 16.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andre Pallante (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.58 | 16.5% | 8.3% | 312 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 54 |
| Joe Biagini R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.23 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 4.80 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 158 | +0.57 | 2.66 | 624 | 52 |
| Ryne Nelson R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.58 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | .249 | 5.16 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 83 | +1.58 | 3.47 | 824 | 52 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.54 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.59 | 3.16 | 593 | 52 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.85 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.07 | 3.78 | 254 | 52 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 51 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 51 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 51 |
| Mikey O'Brien R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.49 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 110 | 50 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 50 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 50 |
| Mike Augliera R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 114 | 50 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 114 | 50 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 49 |
| Tanner Roark R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.46 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .286 | 3.78 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 572 | -0.68 | 3.13 | 942 | 49 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 49 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 49 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 49 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 49 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 49 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 157 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.54 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| R.A. Dickey ('17) | 3 | 191 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |