Shane Baz

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	119	3.41	3.66	22.7%	10.1%	1.8	K 21.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.75
2025	26	MLBTB	31	31	166	4.87	4.17	24.8%	9.0%	1.4
2026	27	MLBBAL	31	31	180	4.11	3.51	20.0%	8.1%	3.1
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	29	29	174	4.13	4.07	22.3%	8.4%	1.7
2028PROJ	29	MLBBAL	28	28	166	4.26	4.30	21.7%	8.7%	1.3
2029PROJ	30	MLBBAL	26	26	156	4.41	4.51	21.0%	9.0%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.919First FA2030

2027Ext$1M2028Arb-2$8M2029Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs45

K%35

Whiff%23

CompsBud Norris (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Luke Hochevar (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.13

FIP4.07

K%22.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP174

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 174 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

CT+3.7 (15%)

SI (9%)

CU (33%)

CH (9%)

FB-5.1 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.919 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$1M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$10M	+$2M
2029	Arb-3	$10M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$26M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	12.3%	16.7%	-4.4%	2.7%	3.80	5.64	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	10	10	24	105	19	14	2	100%	2.4	18.1%	13.3%	4.8%	1.9%	3.80	4.37	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	16.4%	14.9%	1.6%	1.7%	4.47	4.54	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	12	12	52	244	59	29	3	100%	4.4	24.2%	11.9%	12.3%	1.2%	4.47	3.25	—
2019	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	18.8%	12.8%	6.1%	1.5%	2.99	3.95	—
2019	20	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	17	17	81	342	87	37	5	100%	4.8	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	1.5%	2.99	3.12	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	32.2%	4.6%	27.6%	3.4%	2.05	2.82	+2.4
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	92	347	131	16	12	100%	4.6	37.8%	4.6%	33.1%	3.5%	2.05	2.47	+2.8
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	28.0%	7.8%	20.2%	3.7%	3.83	3.72	+0.6
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	40	170	50	13	6	100%	4.0	29.4%	7.6%	21.8%	3.5%	3.83	3.52	+0.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.3%	3.41	3.75	+1.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	2.3%	3.41	3.75	+1.6
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	497	113	50	11	100%	4.9	22.7%	10.1%	12.7%	2.2%	3.41	3.66	+1.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+1.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.6%	4.87	4.10	+1.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	166	711	176	64	26	100%	5.4	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	3.7%	4.87	4.17	+1.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.11	3.45	+3.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.11	3.45	+3.2
2026	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	180	769	154	62	15	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	12.0%	2.0%	4.11	3.51	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	85	466	1965	447	165	58	100%	5.5	22.7%	8.4%	14.4%	3.0%	4.19	3.86	+5.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	29	29	174	735	164	62	19	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.6%	4.13	4.07	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	166	703	152	61	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.7%	4.19	4.23	+1.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	26	26	156	661	139	59	19	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.44	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	146	616	125	57	19	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.54	4.67	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	135	570	111	55	19	100%	6.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.4%	4.77	4.93	-0.0
2032	33	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	124	523	97	53	19	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.7%	5.03	5.21	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	28	28	166	701	152	61	20	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.30	+1.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	156	659	138	59	20	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.0%	4.41	4.51	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	146	616	125	57	20	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.3%	4.62	4.75	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	135	570	111	55	20	100%	6.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.85	5.01	-0.0
2032	33	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	124	524	97	53	20	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	3.8%	5.12	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	206	1193	5038	1071	451	158	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.45	4.16	+10.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	179	76	26	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.45	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		155	155	754	3185	714	300	81	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.80	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	845	189	80	21	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.5%	3.80	3.80	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Baz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	—	4.44	21.0%	12.0%	469	+0.37	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	73
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	70
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	69
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	68
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	65
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	64
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	63
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	63
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	63
Brian Lawrence R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	13.9%	5.5%	3.0%	.296	4.02	12.8%	6.6%	225	-0.24	3.33	963	63
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	63
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	62
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	62
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	2,006	62
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	62
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	62
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	61
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	61
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	137	21.4%	8.9%	1.16	4.37
Rip Collins ('20-'31, 17 WAR*)	8.6	156	20.0%*	9.1%*	1.05*	4.03*
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Orlando Hernandez ('07)	6.6	146	19.5%	8.6%	1.21	4.13
David Palmer ('78-'89, 12 WAR*)	5.4	136	21.5%*	9.3%*	0.96*	4.30*