Tyson Miller — OGILVIE

Tyson Miller P Charlotte Knights

+0.1 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA

ERA3.87

FIP4.56

xFIP4.17

SIERA3.57

K%21.2%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.1%

IP37

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

K†4545

FB Velo

p1089.6

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p730.290

FB+7.8 (51%)

SL+6.3 (44%)

CH+0.5 (2%)

SI (3%)

CU (3%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	AZL Cubs	2	1	6	21	3	3	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2017	22	A	South Bend Cubs	28	20	121	519	99	38	10	14.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.48	4.53	+1.1
2018	23	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	127	516	126	35	12	18.8%	7.8%	3.1%	3.61	4.19	+1.6
2019	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	26	26	137	572	123	43	19	17.9%	8.1%	3.5%	4.35	4.50	+1.2
2020	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	2	1	5	20	0	3	1	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	23	10	61	253	65	25	7	22.6%	10.4%	3.2%	3.23	4.27	+0.5
2022	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	33	18	100	454	122	48	15	23.9%	11.0%	3.9%	5.20	4.62	+0.8
2023	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	36	2	59	245	60	21	6	22.0%	8.9%	2.6%	3.81	3.78	+0.8
2024	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	62	0	66	251	60	13	7	23.0%	4.7%	3.0%	2.32	3.40	+1.2
2025	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	31	0	37	183	36	34	3	17.3%	19.5%	1.6%	6.27	4.98	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	5	0	7	38	6	6	3	—	—	—	11.05	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	CHC	37	—	37	157	29	17	4	18.7%	11.1%	2.8%	3.87	4.83	+0.1
2026 Total	31	MLB	CHC	—	—	44	195	35	23	7	18.1%	12.0%	3.8%	5.05	4.03	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	CHC	36	—	36	150	28	17	4	18.6%	11.1%	2.9%	4.47	4.90	+0.0
2028	33	MLB	CHC	34	—	34	144	26	16	4	18.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.98	-0.0
2029	34	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	136	24	15	4	17.8%	11.2%	3.1%	4.94	5.09	-0.1
2030	35	MLB	CHC	30	—	30	128	22	15	4	17.2%	11.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.22	-0.1
2031	36	MLB	CHC	28	—	28	120	20	14	4	16.4%	11.6%	3.3%	5.27	5.38	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			271	101	727	3072	591	289	97	19.2%	9.4%	3.1%	4.17	4.39	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—			75	28	200	846	163	80	27	19.2%	9.4%	3.1%	4.17	4.39	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	18.7%	11.1%	2.8%	—	4.99	18.2%	7.1%	102	+0.16	—	—	—
Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	82
Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	31	SW	4.19	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.00	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.81	4.19	166	79
Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	32	SU	4.81	15.0%	8.3%	3.5%	.314	3.37	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.44	3.37	144	78
André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	31	SU	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	200	78
Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	78
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	16.0%	7.6%	3.3%	.270	4.84	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.31	2.99	227	77
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	77
Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	15.7%	10.7%	2.2%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	108	77
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	77
Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	31	SU	4.31	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	31	SW	4.49	13.5%	6.7%	3.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	149	76
Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.82	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.32	119	76
Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	19.0%	10.6%	3.3%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	114	76
Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	75
Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	31	SW	3.67	22.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.259	4.50	19.0%	15.9%	74	+0.83	3.67	135	74
Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	31	SW	4.01	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.63	3.38	129	74
Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	31	SW	4.61	13.4%	8.9%	2.8%	.286	4.13	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.48	4.13	156	74
Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	32	SW	3.60	15.9%	7.7%	1.6%	.330	3.87	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.12	352	73
Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	31	SW	4.22	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.06	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.16	4.06	219	73
Bobby Parnell R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	14.1%	9.5%	1.3%	.297	3.55	15.2%	3.9%	34	-0.26	3.55	102	73

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.